2022 has come to the end of the year, and the first round of price adjustment window for refined oil products in 2023 will open at 24:00 on January 3. Car owners please remind each other that oil prices will rise again. According to the data on the change rate of crude oil on the seventh (December 27) working day of the new round of oil price adjustment cycle, the cumulative increase is predicted to be 230 yuan/ton, which is converted into liters and calculated as a price increase of 0.17-0.21 yuan/liter.
December 28 (Wednesday) in early Asian trading, U.S. oil traded at $79.64 a barrel. Oil prices stabilized after hitting a three-week high on Tuesday, after some U.S. energy plants closed due to winter storms resumed operations, largely offsetting the easing of the COVID-19 capped gains driven by hopes of a revival in demand.
Bearish factors affecting oil prices
US winter storms may improve this week to limit oil price gains
Winter storms reduce oil and natural gas production from North Dakota to Texas. The resumption of operations at some U.S. energy plants previously shut by winter storms largely offset gains driven by hopes that easing of COVID-19 restrictions would boost demand recovery.
According to a report by the National Broadcasting Corporation (NBC) on December 27 local time, the extreme winter storm has caused at least 63 deaths in the United States. According to the US National Weather Service, parts of New York were still experiencing heavy snow on the 27th, causing difficulties for rescue work and road clearance.
Kazuhiko Saito, chief analyst at Fujitsu Securities, said: "The weather in the US is expected to improve this week, which means that the rebound may not last too long." Large stocks that are sensitive to interest rates were hit by higher U.S. Treasury yields on Tuesday, ahead of a week of shortened trading due to a public holiday. Growth stocks were the biggest drag on the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The S&P 500 also fell with the Nasdaq. Value stocks helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average hold on to gains. "Higher (Treasury bond) yields put pressure on growth stocks, on the other hand, industrials, utilities and energy stocks outperformed, and money flowed out of growth stocks and into value," said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at CarsonGroup. Stocks, that’s a microcosm of what we’ve seen throughout the year. It’s important to remember that other sectors picked up the baton as previously soaring sectors came back to reality.”
Tesla plunged after Tesla plans to cut production at its Shanghai plant in January, extending cuts it began this month into next year, internal arrangements seen by Reuters show. Tesla is down nearly 70 percent so far this year, including Tuesday's losses.
U.S. Treasury Rising yields are weighing on rate-sensitive growth stocks, a recurring theme in 2022. Growth stocks have tumbled more than 30 percent this year, while value stocks have lost about 7.5 percent. With just three trading days left in 2022, all three major indexes are on track for their biggest annual losses since the 2008 global financial crisis. "It's been a bad year for stocks, but it's been even worse for bonds, which is extremely rare and an unfortunate reminder that markets can sometimes surprise,"
Detrick said. Hopes for a recovery in global demand and an improvement in supply chains have been sparked by China's new crown restrictions. On the economic front, the Department of Commerce’s preliminary statistics on US trade in goods showed that the deficit narrowed by 15.6%, and S&P’s Case-Shiller showed that its 20-city composite house price growth fell to 8.6% year-on-year, the lowest since November 2020 .
Six of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors closed in the red, with consumer discretionary and communication services posting the biggest percentage losses.
U.S. home prices rose in the single digits in Octoberyear-on-year
Annual price gains in an increasingly fragile U.S. housing market slipped into single digits in October for the first time in about two years, two closely watched surveys showed on Tuesday Mortgage rates soared above 7%, further stifling demand.
The S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller National Home Price Index rose 9.2% in October, down from 10.7% in September and the first single-digit gain since November 2020. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), which oversees mortgage financing entities Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, said year-over-year home price growth slowed to 9.8% in October from 11.1% in September, marking the index's biggest decline in 2020. It was the first non-double-digit growth since September 2019.
On a monthly basis, the S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller index fell for the fourth straight month, while the FHFA house price index was unchanged. "Mortgage financing continues to be a headwind for home prices as Fed continues to raise interest rates," Craig Lazzara, managing director of S&P Dow Jones Indices , said in a statement. , to ban crude oil exports to countries imposing price caps from February 1
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday announced his response to the price caps imposed by the West, signing a decree banning supplies to countries imposing the price caps from February 1 Petroleum and petroleum products, for a period of five months.
The Group of Seven (G7), the EU and Australia agreed this month to impose a $60 price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil, effective December 5, over Russia's "special military operations" in Ukraine.
The decree announced by the Kremlin shows: "The decree will take effect from February 1, 2023 and will last until July 1, 2023." The ban implementation date will be determined by the Russian government, possibly after February 1. The decree included a clause allowing Putin to withdraw the ban in exceptional circumstances.
Intense fighting broke out in eastern Ukraine
In eastern and southern Ukraine, Russian troops again shelled and bombed towns and cities on Tuesday. After some significant advances were made in Ukraine in the fall, the war entered a slow attrition phase as the harsh winter set in.
The fiercest fighting took place in the eastern city of Bakhmut, which Russia has been trying to take for months at great cost in lives, and in the cities of Svatove and Kreminna, further north , Ukraine is trying to break through Russia's defenses. "Russia continues to launch frequent small-scale attacks in these areas (Bahmut and Svatov), although the control area has not changed."
Kyiv said the war is being won, Never agree to give up territory. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a late Tuesday night talk that the Military Command Council had "established steps to be taken in the near future." Chairman Medvedev published an article in the " Russian Newspaper" on December 26, stating that Russia no longer has reason to negotiate with the West, and there is no trust between Russia and the West at all. He pointed out that NATO's eastward expansion is actually preparing to launch a war against Russia.
Medvedev pointed out that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out in the past year, and the words and deeds of Western leaders were shocking, which obliterated the mutual trust and respect between Russia and the West, and obliterated the possibility of dialogue.
He mentioned that in 2010, as Russian president, he attended the Russia-NATO Council meeting in Lisbon. NATO member states told Russia at that time that NATO and Russia did not pose a threat to each other and were willing to work together for common security. But Medvedev pointed out that at the same time, NATO is constantly expanding eastward and preparing for confrontation. This is actually preparing to launch a war against Russia. According to "Russia Today" (RT) news, (Transneft) website of Russia's national oil pipeline transportation company (Transneft) website released on the 26th local time showed that from January 1 next yearStarting today, the cost of transit transportation of Russian oil transported through Ukraine to EU countries through the "Friendship" oil pipeline will increase.
RT said that Ukraine is expected to increase the transit transportation fee of crude oil transported from Russia to Hungary and Slovakia by 2.1 euros/ton to 13.6 euros/ton, a total increase of 18.3%.
In general, the winter storm in the United States may improve and drag down oil prices, but optimism has picked up, boosting demand; while Putin signed a decree banning crude oil exports to countries that impose price caps from February 1, and Russia said it would cooperate with NATO There is nothing to talk about now, the geopolitical situation still supports oil prices, and the decline in oil prices may be limited. Pay attention to API data within the day.
At 8:24 Beijing time, U.S. crude oil is now at $79.64 a barrel.
