Recently, domestic economists and experts have started discussions on distributing cash again. Some people suggest that cash should be distributed directly, while others think that discovering cash means not distributing cash. To post or not to post, the opinions of experts are not very unified.
Recently, at the 2022 Tsinghua Wudaokou Chief Economist Forum, Professor of the School of Economics and Management of Tsinghua UniversityLi Daokui pointed out that the international situation is very complicated, and the domestic epidemic has repeatedly challenged us. Economy and protection of consumption.
Under the impact of the epidemic, consumption in many industries has declined. The harshest part of consumption is not that after a 1% drop this year, nothing will happen next year. This is due to inertia. In order to minimize the impact of this inertia, the most direct way to protect consumption is to discover cash.
Take Shanghai as an example. There are 25 million permanent residents in Shanghai. Calculated as a family of 4, there are a total of 6 million families in Shanghai. The 10% of families with the lowest income each subsidize 10,000 yuan for their consumption, which is 6 billion It's just a matter of yuan. The tax paid by SAIC Motor may reach 15 billion yuan a year, which means that Shanghai only needs to take out the tax of one listed company to promote consumption. From a professor's point of view,
had good intentions, but Li Daokui's remarks did not receive widespread support from netizens, but were filled with doubts. Among them, the comment with the most likes is that the family who can receive the 10,000 yuan is not short of the 10,000 yuan, and the family who is short of the 10,000 yuan will not receive the money.
Netizens’ complaints are all complaints, but we still have to look at it from the perspective of implementation. The example of Li Daokui is just a general direction, lacking specific standards, and it is easy for many people who fish in troubled waters to come in.
For example, what household income counts as the lowest 10% household income? Only look at salary, or look at hidden income? It is easier to compare only by looking at wages, but it is difficult to check invisible income, because these money are outside the scope of national supervision.
Suppose a Shanghainese owns 10 houses in the local area, and his job is to collect rent every month. However, from the perspective of society, this family should be regarded as a low-income family, because no one in this family works to make money.
So, low income is a hard line to define. In addition, distributing according to the number of families will definitely cause dissatisfaction. Because some families have 4 people, some families have 1 person, and both receive 10,000 yuan, the effect is definitely different.
In comparison, the main means of promoting consumption in China is to issue coupons.
Some people may have this question: "Why do some countries and regions directly issue cash, but our country is more inclined to issue consumer coupons?"
Professor Bai Xuejie of Nankai University pointed out that there are two main reasons: First, there are a large number of people in our country. Sending money in the way of small western countries will easily cause inflation , and the role of stimulating consumption will not be able to play a role; second, because people are affected by the epidemic to different degrees, how to improve Precision is an issue. If everyone sends 1,000 yuan, the effect is the same as if no money is sent.
Some netizens may still express their incomprehension, because the number of people in the United States is not small, but cash was issued once in 2020. Individuals with an annual income of less than $75,000 can receive the subsidy. Adults receive a subsidy of $1,200 per person, and minors can receive a subsidy of $500.
I personally think that there are two reasons why the United States can directly discover gold: first, the strength of the US dollar gives the United States the confidence to discover gold, and even if there is a certain inflation, the whole world will pay for it; The tax system is more stringent, and the punishment measures are more severe, so the income statistics will be relatively accurate. Distributing subsidies according to income standards will be easier to implement.
Then the question arises, what are the advantages of consumer coupons issued in China?
First, consumption coupons have a screening effect. Coupons are not very attractive to the rich, so the rich are not very interested in it. Even if there are rich people who receive consumption coupons,It is possible to forget to use the voucher because you are too busy.
Coupons are more helpful for people with a relatively tight economy. As long as you can get these tens of dollars of coupons, you will also spend them where you want to spend, and the probability of waste is not high.
Therefore, seemingly inconspicuous consumer coupons have played the role of intelligent screening. This design is very ingenious. It not only reduces the actual local fiscal expenditure, but also drives a wave of consumption.
Second, consumer coupons play a role in supporting the industry. In many cities, consumer vouchers are not available in any store, but the principle of targeted support is adopted, focusing on supporting livelihood industries with meager profits. Assuming that gold is discovered directly, the money in the hands of ordinary people may soon return to the hands of monopoly capital.
However, consumer vouchers are not without disadvantages, because many people have difficulty repaying their mortgages due to the epidemic, and consumer vouchers can only be used for shopping and consumption, and cannot be directly used to repay mortgages.
No matter whether it is to directly discover gold or issue coupons, each has its own advantages and disadvantages. What do you support?
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