With the improvement of the domestic situation of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, many places across the country have successively launched incentives to promote consumption. According to incomplete statistics, up to now, more than 20 provinces, regions and cities across the country, including Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Beijing, have launched "consumer coupons", covering areas such as automobiles, electronic products, and catering.
It is not difficult to find that consumer coupons have become the main measures for governments around the world to stimulate consumption in the post-epidemic era. On the other hand, the debate on "cash or consumer coupons can stimulate demand more" has always existed in the industry and academia. When
was interviewed by the reporter of " China Report ", experts also had different views on this. However, the general consensus from experts is that with the intensive introduction of policies to stimulate consumption in various places, it is expected to further release the consumption potential in the short term and promote the recovery of the consumer market.
launched "consumer coupons" in many places one after another
△ Data map: Customers line up to pay in Haikong Global Boutique (Haikou) Duty Free City.
Affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the current overall market consumer demand is shrinking. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the growth rate of the added value of industries above designated size fell by 2.9% in April, the total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 11.1%, and the investment in fixed assets from January to April increased by 6.8% (the growth rate fell by 13.1% year-on-year. %).
Shen Jianguang, chief economist of Jingdong Group, told reporters that under the current situation, it is imperative to stabilize the macroeconomic market, achieve the annual growth target, and boost consumption as soon as possible.
On April 25, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Further Unleashing Consumption Potential and Promoting Consumption Sustained Recovery". Among them, it is mentioned that in response to the impact of the epidemic, the orderly recovery and development of consumption should be promoted; comprehensive innovation and quality improvement should be made, and efforts should be made to stabilize the basic consumption market. Since then, many places have launched measures to boost consumption. At 10 a.m. on May 21, Qingdao issued the first batch of consumer coupons for home appliances. According to media reports, the first transactions of consumer coupons of different denominations in this round were all generated within 6 minutes after receiving the coupons. Later, Guizhou Province and Taiyuan City in Shanxi Province also issued consumer vouchers for retail, catering, automobiles, and cultural tourism.
Industry data shows that in the first four months of this year, more than 20 provinces and cities including Guangdong, Jiangxi, and Zhejiang issued a total of more than 3.4 billion yuan in consumer coupons. According to data from the Guangzhou Branch of the People’s Bank of China, as of May 7, Guangdong’s round of consumption promotion has invested a total of 607 million yuan, converting 3.581 billion yuan in consumer transactions and benefiting 219,900 physical merchants.
This is not the first time that consumer coupons have appeared as a means of stimulating demand. After sorting out, it was found that in 2020 and 2021, consumer coupon programs have also been launched in many places across the country. As far as Beijing is concerned, on June 6, 2020, Beijing launched the consumption season. According to public data from the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Commerce, as of the end of 2020, a total of 39 million "consumer coupons" of various types have been issued during the Beijing consumer season, achieving sales of 13.52 billion yuan and driving leverage to 14.8 times.
However, unlike the previous two rounds, the consumer coupons issued in this round include more categories of durable goods such as automobiles, digital products, and home appliances. These products with a high unit price are given "high hopes" for the multiplier effect.
The so-called " multiplier effect " usually refers to the degree of chain reaction that the increase or decrease of a certain variable in economic activities causes changes in economic aggregate . As far as the consumption field is concerned, it is the transaction transformation effect brought about by the issuance of consumer coupons.
Taking Shenzhen as an example, in the "Several Measures of Shenzhen City on Promoting the Continuous Recovery of Consumption" promulgated by Shenzhen on May 23, it is proposed that the purchase of new energy vehicles and can pay up to 20,000 yuan, and the purchase of mobile phones and home appliances can pay up to 2,000 yuan. Yuan and other measures. Judging from the data quoted by the media, after the subsidy measures were released, the sales of many car sales companies increased compared with April. How does
maximize the multiplier effect of coupon issuance? Pan and Lin , co-directors of the Digital Economy and Financial Innovation Research Center of Zhejiang University International Joint Business School, pointed out to reporters that the issuance of consumer coupons should be targeted, that is, to meet the needs of ordinary people's livelihood.
Shen Jianguang recognized the short-term stimulating effect of consumer coupons on the market. In his observation, the extensive practice of consumption vouchers in various places after the epidemic and the experience of issuing consumption vouchers in Hong Kong in 2021 show that consumption vouchers have a significant effect in stimulating consumption.Therefore, it should be regarded as a key policy option.
Pan and Lin agree that local governments can solve the problem of insufficient demand in some local markets by issuing consumer vouchers, but "not all problems can be solved by consumer vouchers", he emphasized. He pointed out to reporters that the main problem today is the supply problem. If the resumption of production and work is not promoted in time, the production capacity of products will not be able to return to normal levels.
send money or coupons?
△ Data map: Danzhai County, Guizhou distributed "millions of tourism coupons" to help the recovery of the tourism industry.
Although the consumption transformation brought about by consumption coupons has been reflected in the data, many people in the industry still question the inclusiveness of consumption coupons, and propose to directly distribute cash to residents affected by the epidemic to boost their income. consumer confidence.
Justin Yifu Lin, honorary dean of the National School of Development at Peking University, publicly suggested that 1,000 yuan be distributed to each family in the closed area to support their consumption. Professor at the School of Social Sciences of Tsinghua UniversityLi Daokui also said that to ensure consumption, on the one hand, logistics must be kept smooth, and on the other hand, certain cash subsidies must be given to the residents who are more affected, so as to stabilize the future in this way Consumption does not produce psychological shadows. Reporter
found that on social platforms, there are many discussions about "issued coupons, no money to spend". Fu Lin, an associate professor at the School of Economics of the Central University of Finance and Economics, told the reporter of China Report that both consumer vouchers and cash can stimulate consumption to a certain extent.
“Everyone thinks that the stimulating effect of discovery gold on consumption must be inferior to that of consumer vouchers. The digital effect is different, and the cash distribution is the same.
Shen Jianguang, who has always supported the issuance of consumer vouchers to the public, believes that the current small and medium-sized enterprises are on the verge of bankruptcy due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. Without the promotion of consumer vouchers, the survival of these enterprises will be more difficult. He said that after 2008, subsidy measures such as "cars, home appliances go to the countryside " had promoted the recovery of the consumer market in a short period of time, and the rural market was also opened up.
In Shen Jianguang's view, Hong Kong's issuance of consumer coupons to the public to boost consumption is a good example. According to public reports, in order to boost the economy, the Hong Kong SAR government issued two rounds of consumer coupons to the public in February and April this year. Retail sales in Hong Kong rebounded in April from a year earlier, the Hong Kong Retail Management Association said. Thanks to the control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and the drive of the local consumer voucher program, the Census and Statistics Department of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region announced on June 1 that total retail sales in April increased by 11.7% year-on-year to HK$30.2 billion.
"Companies have no revenue and are on the verge of bankruptcy. How can they enjoy the policy support of tax cuts and fee reductions ?" Used together, it will help the recovery of the short-term consumer market.
In Fu Lin's view, the current consumer coupons in many places are mainly issued online and are aimed at targeted categories. In his view, it is difficult for this kind of consumer durable consumer coupons to directly benefit low- and middle-income groups. In contrast, issuing vouchers or cash will give residents more choices, greater flexibility, and greater help.
Fu Lin believes that for local governments, there are differences in the support policies of different types of consumer vouchers and cash distribution in terms of capital costs, administrative power input, assistance to target groups, and consumption-driven effects. He added to reporters that local governments may wish to consider the form of a "combination punch" of cash and various types of consumer coupons to provide precise assistance.
Experts suggest issuing local bonds to stimulate market vitality
The reporter noticed that the issuance of consumer coupons is mostly an autonomous behavior of local governments, and there are no rules to follow in terms of amount and timing.
Fu Lin said that consumption stimulus measures are largely based on the financial strength of each locality. "Different regions have different industrial structures and different levels of economic development, and the manifestations and key areas of local government support are also different."
△ Data map: Changchun City distributes inclusive consumption coupons to citizens.
In Shen Jianguang's view, due to the disparity in the financial strength of various regions, it is far from enough to stimulate the overall consumer market by issuing consumer coupons at the local level. He explained that since the outbreak, there have always been discussions in public opinion about consumer vouchers increasing local finances, but the central level has not introduced a consumer voucher plan.
Shen Jianguang suggested that it is necessary to increase transfer payments at the central level, and suggested that the issuance of special anti-epidemic government bonds should be promoted as soon as possible to raise funds and be used to support the implementation of national and local consumer coupon policies.
Fu Lin also mentioned to reporters that the central government can issue special local bonds for the epidemic by granting certain authority and quota to local governments, allowing temporary adjustment of financial budgets under special conditions, so that local governments "have the ability to do more things" ".
Regarding the timing of distribution, the interviewed experts generally believe that "the sooner the better". Fu Lin believes that the current situation of the new crown pneumonia epidemic is improving. Whether it is cash or consumer vouchers, timely issuance will help residents or companies overcome the "post-epidemic recovery difficulties."
Pan and Lin believe that the "distribution" that stimulates consumer demand can be divided into targeted distribution and general distribution. The general distribution ensures the fairness of the issuance of consumer coupons, and the targeted distribution focuses on the needy groups and avoids lottery distribution. "Targeted distribution can be used for people in need. General distribution can be used to ease the epidemic and resume work and production, so as to stimulate demand."
Shen Jianguang also said that all regions should pay attention to design in the issuance of consumer coupons. According to his suggestion, in the process of designing consumer vouchers, local governments should consider increasing the population-oriented design of consumer vouchers, and moderately incline resources to poor groups and consumers in rural counties, expand the coverage of consumer voucher policies, and play a role in protecting people's livelihood. At the same time, it supports online and offline linkage, actively guides small and micro enterprises to join, allows small individual businesses that need more help to settle on the consumer voucher platform, and simultaneously relies on small individual businesses to build scenarios to expand the coverage of rural counties.
Writer: "China Report" reporter Qiu Hui
Image source: Xinhua Net
Editor in charge: Xu Hao