文｜Jiangxia
Aspartame's "stamina" is a bit strong.
On July 14th, after the World Health Organization announced that aspartame might cause cancer, the indifference in the field of science popularization and the anxiety in the market were like two parallel lines.
The source of this social issue is that the International Agency for Research on Cancer under the World Health Organization listed aspartame as a substance that may be carcinogenic to humans. WHO experts emphasized that this statement does not mean that aspartame will definitely cause cancer, but called for more research on its health effects.
According to the relevant classification of WHO, aspartame is classified as a 2B carcinogen, that is, a substance or mixture with a low possibility of carcinogenicity to humans. The evidence of carcinogenicity found in animal experiments is not sufficient, and the evidence of carcinogenicity to humans is limited. Pickles, mobile phone radiation, chloroform, dichlorvos, gasoline, etc. are at the same risk level as aspartame.
This is why some science popularizers believe that there is no need to overreact, based on "dosage". According to the recommendations of the World Health Organization, it is safe to consume up to 40 mg of aspartame per kilogram of body weight per day. Taking diet soda as an example, it is estimated that an adult weighing 130 catties must drink more than a dozen cans per day to exceed the standard. Because of this, some netizens complained that some people did not hesitate to use the first-class carcinogens tobacco and alcohol, but were scared to death by a second-class aspartame.
However, there is never a single factor that affects consumption decisions. Science popularization can be calm, but the market and brands may not. American psychologist Daniel Kahneman mentioned in his best-selling book "Thinking, Fast and Slow" that the public is biased against risks, and our brain's ability to deal with small risks has a basic limit: either completely ignore risks, or pay too much attention to risks. There is no middle ground.
Especially when it comes to health issues, consumers will only be more sensitive. If tobacco and alcohol are highly addictive, some people turn a blind eye to their risky choices, but aspartame is in a different situation.
As an indispensable part of the modern food industry, the large-scale application of sugar substitutes was originally to comply with people's concerns about the health risks of "sugar". In 1972, Cambridge scientist John Yudkin published the article "Sugar and Disease", pointing out that sugar is related to a series of diseases, including dental caries, indigestion, seborrheic dermatitis, myopia, protein deficiency, diabetes, ischemic heart disease, gout and hormone levels. People are increasingly concerned about the risks of sugar, and chemical sweeteners such as aspartame and acesulfame-K have entered the field of industrial production.
For example, Coca-Cola launched Diet Coke No Sugar in 1983, and in 2006 launched Coke Zero, which tastes closer to the original flavor, and the latter uses aspartame in its formula.
Aspartame at that time was targeting sugar. Chemical sweeteners are a healthier alternative to sugar.
But the situation is different now. In addition to aspartame, there are more and more options in the category of sweeteners, such as natural sweeteners steviol glycoside, mogroside, erythritol, etc. Market competition has become a battle for routes among sugar substitutes.
Sanyuan Bio, an upstream sugar substitute company, once mentioned in the prospectus, "Currently some consumers still believe that natural sweeteners such as steviol glycoside, mogroside, and erythritol are safer, and this is more obvious in overseas markets."
In fact, this trend also exists among domestic consumers. Tianfeng Securities Research Report previously showed that as of 2022, artificial sweeteners will account for 52% of China's sweetener market, and natural sweeteners will account for 29%. The growth rate of natural sweeteners is faster. From 2010 to 2020, the proportion of global natural sweeteners in sugar replacement products increased from 8% to 29%.
The above-mentioned research report also pointed out that as consumers pay more attention to "health and greenness", the safety of aspartame has attracted attention, and natural sweetener products are expected to benefit.
Food safety popularization expert and national senior food inspector Wang Silu told the Beijing News that if ingested for a long time, natural sweeteners can be considered healthier, because natural sweeteners have existed in nature for a long time, and their structure is easier to be metabolized in various metabolic pathways and will not accumulate in the human body.
The dispute over the route of sugar substitute raw materials will inevitably lead to a secret war among beverages, especially carbonated beverages. As the world's largest soft drink category, carbonated drinks account for 35.28% of the world's share, which shows how solid the mass base is. From this data, we can also understand why the global popularity of the "two joys" - Coca-Cola and Pepsi-Cola is so strong.
Regarding the selection of sugar substitutes, "Liangle" Coke Zero uses aspartame. Therefore, after aspartame was caught in the cancer-causing scandal, the first reaction of the media was to pay attention to Liang Le's response. At present, Coca-Cola is as silent as ever, and Pepsi executives responded that "it is relatively easy for us to replace the sweetener."
If "Liang Le" belongs to the representative of "lying gun" in this round of turmoil, domestic sugar-free drinks such as Yuanqi Forest probably belong to the "laying win" group. As we all know, Yuanqi Forest Sparkling Water is betting on erythritol as a sugar substitute, and its product selling point is 0 sugar, 0 fat and 0 calories. After the Yuanqi forest was on fire, erythritol was also on fire. Out of competition, other domestic beverage brands have embraced natural sugar substitutes when launching zero-sugar beverages. Although this means higher costs, it is also an ingredient list that is more acceptable to health-conscious consumers.
The 2021 annual report of Sanyuan Biotech also confirms this trend. The company said that the proportion of artificial sweeteners used has shown a significant downward trend year by year.
Since then, leading brands such as HEYTEA and Nayuki's Tea in the field of ready-made tea drinks have also announced the use of natural sugar substitute "Luo Han Fructose" to replace aspartame. Last year, Yuanqi Forest went a step further and launched a cola-flavored soda with erythritol as a sugar substitute, and began to challenge the global giant "Two Les".
It can be said that domestic beverage brands' initiative to "remove aspartame" has determined that they will be relatively more calm in this round of turmoil. As for Liangle, how consumers will make choices, and how big the impact on the market will be for Liangle, we can probably make a preliminary judgment after the two companies' third-quarter financial reports are released.
However, one trend is probably clear: inherent impressions and risk biases always exist. Even after reading more popular science articles, many consumers will prefer the option they think is healthier when making consumption decisions.
