Oriental Think Tank丨After the sudden resignation of the WTO Director-General...

May 14, 2020, for World Trade Organization (WTO) Director-General Azevedo, this is a bitter day; for the crisis of the epidemic This is a sad day for the world economy and trade.

In a video conference of WTO members that day in Geneva, WTO Director-General Roberto Azevedo announced that he will step down on August 31 this year, which means that the time of his second term will be shortened. A whole year.

Caption: Azevedo announced his resignation. (Source: WTO official website)

Azevedo has misfortunes

Azevedo's resignation seems to be sudden, but there have been signs and rumors, but now it is only confirmed.

Azevedo was born on October 3, 1957 in a coastal city in northeastern Brazil. He studied electrical engineering at the University of Brasilia and international relations at the Rio Blanco Academy (Brazilian Diplomatic Academy). . In addition to Portuguese as his native language, he is also fluent in English, French and Spanish. In Brazil, people like him are definitely outstanding talents.

After graduating from Azevedo University, he joined the Brazilian Foreign Service in 1984 and worked in the Brazilian Embassy in the United States (1988-1991), the Brazilian Embassy in Uruguay (1992-1994) and the Permanent Representative of Brazil in Geneva, Switzerland Department (1997-2001) work. In fact, he has been working in Brazil's WTO agency since 1997 and thus entered the WTO system.

In May 2013, Azevedo defeated the 62-year-old Mexican candidate supported by the United States and the European Union with the support of the BRICS and many Latin American, Asian and African members (countries and regions). O Blanco became the new Director-General of the WTO. The official election results were announced at the World Trade Conference on May 14 of that year. Because of this day, Azevedo also chose to resign on May 14.

The post of Director-General of the World Trade Organization is prominent, and he was once known as the "Patron saint of world trade." It is not easy to be on this throne. If it were not helpless, Azevedo would not resign. After all, he is not the same as the Director-General of the World Health Organization Tan Desai, and the United States has not yet attacked him by name.

Profile picture: On May 14, 2013, at the World Trade Organization headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland, Azevedo walked out of the formal meeting of the General Council. On the same day, the World Trade Organization held a formal meeting of the General Council, and unanimously adopted the decision to appoint Brazilian Roberto Azevedo as the next director-general of the organization. Azevedo became the first WTO Director-General from Latin America. (Source: Xinhua News Agency reporter Wang Siwei photo)

But Azevedo is obviously disheartened. In this sense, Azevedo’s resignation can also be described as "resigned" in the words of the current US officialdom. As for what he resigned, I am afraid it will not be said to people within the WTO and internationally. Yu. In short, in the current global political, economic and trade context, coupled with the new crown virus that has caused world trade to worsen, his position is too difficult and impossible to do, so he just quit.

Azevedo himself issued a resignation letter, which is rich in content and sincere, but basically there is something in the words and hesitating. It seems that he has a lot to say, but his position is sensitive after all, and his resignation is even more sensitive. This is not the time for individuals to complain. Perhaps it will be revealed in his memoirs a few years later.

The video conference of WTO members on May 14 was dull and bleak. At the beginning of the meeting, Azevedo said to everyone: "Good afternoon everyone! This meeting is about a very specific administrative arrangement. Now I have an announcement to announce. In August this year, I will complete the 7-year WTO. Director General. I have decided that I will step down on August 31, 2020, shortening my second term by one year...

profile picture: October 2, 2018, in Geneva, Switzerland, World Trade Organization Director-General Azevedo gave a speech at the World Trade Organization 2018 Public Forum. (Source: Xinhua News Agency reporter Xu Jinquan) I will not make the decision of

lightly. Between the closed isolation and my recent knee surgery, I spent more time reflecting than usual. I made this decision after a long discussion with my family. My wife is in Geneva, and my daughter and mother are in Brasilia. This is a personal decision, a family decision. I am convinced that this decision is in the best interest of the organization.

I also want to show what it is not: it has nothing to do with health (thank God). I also do not pursue any political opportunities. I hope I will face new challenges in the future, but as of now, I still don’t know what they will be... I have spent most of my life-23 years-in this system, and I feel very much about it thank. I learned a lot. And I believe that in the challenging era of multilateral cooperation, I can contribute to maintaining the WTO as an important pillar of global economic governance.

Together, we have learned to be innovative, practical and pragmatic...Although we have made a lot of achievements, there is still a lot of work to do. We have set ambitious change goals for the MC12 and WTO reforms...but I will not be the leader you will plan and take a strategic path with him.

The challenges faced by the organization’s work will always be arduous, which is commensurate with the organization’s relevance and role as an anchor of predictability and certainty in a rapidly changing global economy. In addition to the ongoing work and negotiations, we must also consider what we need to do to promote extensive discussions around WTO reform.

We know that the WTO cannot stand still, and the world around it will undergo profound changes. Ensuring that the WTO continues to be able to meet the needs and priorities of its members is a priority, not an option. The'new normal' that emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic must be reflected in our work here.

Really meaningful reform is a long-term task...WTO may not be perfect, but it is essential. This is what keeps us away from the world where the law of the jungle prevails, at least in terms of trade...

I have no intention of having a proper discussion today. I just want to share this information with you... Now is the time to cheer up and start looking for leaders who are worthy of you, our stakeholders, and the multilateral trading system. "

WTO is facing a severe test.

Azevedo has been re-elected for two terms. Under normal circumstances, the WTO will also select a new director-general. However, Azevedo's sudden resignation as the head of the WTO is bound to plunge the WTO into great chaos. , Passive and dilemma. Due to the intensified global epidemic, the current global economy and world trade are in a moment of deep crisis. Although the WTO has long been marginalized, after all, there is a governance organization for global trade, which is very important to the world economy during and after the epidemic. And the restoration of international trade can play some role. Azevedo’s resignation will at least in the short term put the WTO into a further paralysis. In the case of the temporary vacancy of the director-general, only the WTO’s General Council The chairman or deputy director-general assumes relevant work temporarily, and at the same time, the process of selecting and appointing a new director-general shall be initiated as soon as possible.

According to the normal procedure, the selection of the next WTO director-general will start in December this year, and all parties recommend and nominate candidates for director-general , And then in the first three months of next year or even longer, the new director-general will be negotiated and determined. Now due to special circumstances, either the selection of the new WTO director-general is advanced, or the vacancy for a period of time will be selected according to the procedures. WTO director-general The selection and determination of the company was originally a fierce battle game. Azevedo’s sudden resignation not only provided the stakeholders with an opportunity for leadership, but also led to more intense competition among the stakeholders.

Washington has been complaining about the world’s multilateral organizations. Control power fell off, complaining that these organizations cannot protect the interests of the United States, so the United States has to undergo major operations and major adjustments. Perhaps the opportunity that the United States is waiting for has come, but the WTO is not the United States, and the United States cannot do whatever it wants. Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) issued a statement on the day of Azevedo’s resignation, expressing gratitude to Azevedo, stating that “despite many shortcomings in the WTO, (Azevedo) actively dominates the organization.” Public opinion makes sense.

Some public opinions believe that although Azevedo did notA specific explanation of the reason for the resignation is inseparable from what the United States has done to the WTO for a long time, especially since Trump took office.

The WTO faces many problems, both practical and long-term, both internal and external. At present, there are three main problems.

One is the necessity and authority of the WTO. Since the post-war period, especially since the end of the Cold War, one of the major changes in the world has been the rapid development of world trade. Over the past 30 years of economic globalization, the vigorous development of world trade has brought huge development benefits to countries in the world, especially emerging market countries and developing countries. Multinational companies and corporate giants in Western developed countries such as the United States have also benefited from it.

With the rapid and diversified development of world trade, especially the innovative development of the digital economy, new situations and new problems in the world economy and trade have also occurred. The goal of the WTO is to establish a complete multilateral trading system that includes goods, services, trade-related investments and intellectual property rights, etc., that is more dynamic and durable. As Azevedo said, even though the WTO is not perfect, if there is no organization system, supervision, and arbitration system to govern the WTO, world trade will inevitably be chaotic.

It should be said that the overwhelming majority of the more than 160 members of the WTO safeguard the WTO and actively support the WTO’s role. However, Trump has repeatedly stated that "the United States is at a disadvantage under the WTO system." The United States continues to question itself, and the United States does everything possible to weaken and marginalize the WTO, even hinting at its withdrawal, and constantly exerting pressure on the WTO. If this fundamental problem is not resolved, no matter who becomes the new Director-General of the WTO in the future, he will not be able to carry out his work.

The second is the reform of the WTO. WTO can be described as ill-fated. As early as the Bretton Woods meeting in July 1944, the idea of ​​establishing the World Trade Organization was proposed. However, due to reasons such as the United States’ opposition to a boycott out of its own interests, the World Trade Organization was not established until January 1, 1995.

With the vigorous development of world trade, the WTO has indeed fallen behind the times in many aspects. However, if member states and regions can proceed from the overall situation and carry out reforms through active communication and consultation, the WTO reform issues can always be resolved. However, on the issue of WTO reform, the United States and other countries, out of their own considerations, put forward other WTO reform goals, contents and requirements, insisting on canceling the treatment of a large number of developing countries such as China and India, which caused great confusion and A series of contradictions.

Under the circumstances that the WTO reform cannot be advanced as required by the United States, Trump simply used the presidency to impose import restrictions on other countries in the name of implementing domestic laws in the United States, and levied and added tariffs on multinational products and steel. The United States played the roles of "prosecutor" and "judge" at the same time, and took action beyond the WTO, which seriously violated international rules.

Due to different positions and different demands, all parties agree and even call for reforms of the WTO. However, due to the different reforms required, WTO reforms are struggling. Azevedo has repeatedly emphasized the necessity and urgency of WTO reform, but there are many contradictions in how to implement the reform. In principle, WTO decisions, including major reform decisions, require 164 members to reach an unanimous consensus. As long as one member (country and region) opposes it, it cannot move forward.

Photo caption: This is the exterior view of the WTO headquarters taken in Geneva, Switzerland on December 11, 2019. (Source: Xinhua News Agency reporter Liu Qu)

The third is the restoration of the core institutions and functions of the WTO . The handling of trade disputes between WTO members is an important pillar and core function of the WTO. The WTO trade dispute arbitration institution must have at least three arbitration judges to consider and arbitrate disputes. However, due to the dissatisfaction of the United States with the WTO Refusal to add members of the high-level committee equivalent to the Supreme Court of the World Trade Organization. Now that the three-person team has one member left, the WTO’s arbitration function has ceased since the end of 2019. This is the first time that the WTO has been suspended since the establishment of the arbitration institution in 1995. If this core issue is not resolved, the WTO will exist in name only. The forced resignation and replacement of the top leaders of the WTO is bound to further aggravate the dysfunction of the WTO.

In addition, affected by the expansion of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, more protectionist phenomena and trends have emerged in world trade, even medical rescueThe protectionism and tariff barriers of aid materials are also increasing. If the timely coordination of the WTO is lost, world trade will face greater headwinds and chaos.

(The author Li Li is a researcher at Oriental Think Tank)

All the pictures in this article are from online public channels, and the source cannot be identified. If there is a copyright dispute, please contact the public account party.

Source: LONDON · East think tank

Author: Lili

Editor: Gu Air

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