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Kishida Fumio The long-awaited trip to Australia will start tomorrow.
There is no exact list of what the leaders of Japan and Australia will talk about at Perth . However, after days of publicity and clamoring by major Japanese media and "sources", one message has become clear: Japan and Australia will make a "major upgrade" to the security cooperation between the two countries.
A Japan-Australia Joint Declaration on Safety and Security signed 15 years ago will be updated; how to implement the "Reciprocal Access Agreement" signed by the Japanese Self-Defense Forces and the Australian Army in January this year will also be the focus of the talks; the two sides will also Exchange of views on issues related to economic security...
no surprise, these issues all point to China either explicitly or implicitly.
Australia-Japan relations "will no longer be just business exchanges".
Although "critical" issues such as economy, trade and energy supply are still among the talks between the two sides, an Australian scholar couldn't help but sigh when he saw that the defense cooperation between the two countries is heating up step by step.
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22, Perth, Australia, Japan-Australia security cooperation "will achieve a major upgrade".
Fumio Kishida's two-day visit to Australia has not yet officially started, and the hype and momentum of various Japanese media and "sources" have been hot. Most of them mentioned that this will be the first time a Japanese prime minister has set foot in Australia since 2018.
This will be the third meeting between the leaders of Japan and Australia in just six months.
On May 24, the day after the Australian and New Zealand Prime Minister Albanese was sworn in, he went to Tokyo to attend the US-Japan-India-Australia "Quartet Security Dialogue" summit and met with Kishida; then last month, Albanese went to Tokyo to attend Abe met with the Prime Minister of Japan during the state funeral.
Counting this time, there will be three meetings every six months, "this shows how much the importance of Japan-Australia relations has increased," said a source close to Kishida. It is not clear what the two parties will discuss in Perth. The official information from the two countries is still relatively cautious and general.
But one thing is for sure, upgrading security cooperation will be a central issue.
Kyodo news agency and other Japanese media reported on the 16th, citing sources, that the two sides are coordinating on updating the "Japan-Australia Joint Declaration on Safety and Security". The target is very clear, which is to take into account "to deal with China's maritime activities and military expansion." This document,
, already plays a crucial role in Japan-Australia relations. In March 2007, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Australian Prime Minister Howard signed a joint declaration on security between the two countries. This is the first defense cooperation document signed between Japan and a country other than the United States after the war, and Japan and Australia established the "2+2" meeting mechanism between the foreign ministers and defense ministers. Alliance" logo.
But now, 15 years later, both Japan and Australia claim the declaration is "outdated".
In the context of that time, the declaration mainly focused on strengthening cooperation on border security, counter-terrorism and other issues. But now, Japan and Australia claim that the security environment facing the two countries "has undergone tremendous changes" and therefore "must come up with an updated version of the joint declaration". Why is
"obsolete"? What "dramatic changes" have taken place in the security environment?
is no accident, they immediately brought the "China threat" to the table. Shingo Yamagami, the Japanese ambassador to Australia, was interviewed by Australian media on the 19th. To open his mouth and shut his mouth is to slander and attack China's "rapid militarization" and "attempt to change the status quo by force", exaggerating the escalation of the security situation in the South China Sea, East China Sea, and even the entire Pacific region. This is an excuse for Japan and Australia to strengthen security bundling.
What updates and upgrades will be made in this new joint security declaration between Japan and Australia? The
ABC reporter said in the report that the new manifesto would be "more ambitious" than the 2007 edition, without elaborating. More information about
comes from Shingo Yamagami, the Japanese ambassador to Canberra .
He said Japan and Australia were in final negotiations over the wording of the document. But he could reveal ahead of time that future joint steps "could include enhanced exchanges of strategic assessments, including intelligence cooperation andDeepening consultations and strengthening the interoperability of , Australian Defence Forces, , and Japan's Self-Defense Forces". The Japanese ambassador,
, was on a high note, claiming that the updated joint declaration "will outline the direction of Japan-Australia defense cooperation for the next ten years" , and even sent a "very clear and strong signal" to the "Indo-Pacific" region and even the international community. In addition to signing the updated declaration, a new report from Kyodo News pointed out in the title, "The Japan-Australia "Reciprocal Access Agreement" specifically Transformation will be the focus". This also adds to the impression that expanding defense cooperation is the "biggest issue" of Kishida's trip to Perth.
According to Japanese media, this agreement also shows that Japan-Australia defense relations are "extraordinary" :
It is the first such agreement signed between Japan and a country other than the United States. The agreement was signed in January this year after more than a year of negotiation, and mainly stipulates the status of the Australian Defense Force and the Japanese Self-Defense Force after mutual visits to each other's country. , treatment, etc. To put it bluntly,
is to greatly simplify the procedures for the Australian Defence Force and the Japanese Self-Defense Force to enter each other's countries in interactions such as joint exercises. Although there is no direct reference to China, the agreement is still widely considered to be based on concerns about "China's military expansion."
At present, the agreement has not completed the approval process of the respective parliaments of the two countries, so it has not yet entered into force.
Taking advantage of the Perth talks, both Japan and Australia may want to move the agreement forward. Push it.
Japanese media reported that some Australian officials said that "the first joint training based on the "Reciprocal Access Agreement" may be implemented soon next May, saying that this shows the "positive attitude" of the Australian side. But Tokyo, which is eager to push for self-military lifting of the embargo from multiple directions, will certainly not be "passive". The position of security issues on the Japan-Australia leaders' meeting list is already clear. But what about other than that?
set off for Australia A few days ago, on the 17th, Kishida talked about issues related to the visit at a high-level meeting of the Liberal Democratic Party , saying that he would discuss "critical issues between the two countries, such as security, energy and food," with Australian Prime Minister Albanese.
is important, this word shows Japan's attention and anxiety about energy supply.
A new article on the Australian Financial Review website today said that Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida briefly visited Perth, Western Australia, seeking Albanese for energy The personal guarantee of supply is "not surprising at all": 65% of
Japan's coal imports and 36% of LNG imports are dependent on Australia.
The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict spilled over, especially Japan's participation in US-EU sanctions against Russia Under the circumstance that Japan cannot afford the energy supply of Australia, the "largest source country", there will be any mistakes in the energy supply. Especially when Canberra was rumored to consider restricting the export of natural gas, which made Tokyo even more flustered. The Australian media is right. Kishida's visit this time, which was portrayed by some Japanese media as "invigorating the public", was actually not long. The time of the visit in the report was said to be 2 From the 1st to the 22nd, but the actual stay in Australia is only one day, during which other itineraries such as speeches to the economic community are also arranged.
But no matter how "short-lived", to ensure a stable energy supply, Kishida will try his best to talk about it.
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Australia-Japan relations "will no longer be just business exchanges".
This is the title of a comment on the Nikkei Asia website by a scholar at the University of Western Australia on the 19th. She was impressed after examining the main topics of the talks between Albanese and Kishida in Perth, and also believed that the "focus on the strengthening security relationship" between the two sides was too obvious.
But in fact, the two countries have long been "no longer only business", and defense cooperation has been deepening.
After the 2007 Security Joint Declaration mentioned earlier, Japan and Australia signed a "Military Defense Cooperation Agreement" in the following year, seeking to expand the scope of "regional multilateral cooperation" to carry out personnel exchanges, fleet visits and joint military exercises. Wait.
Some people have sorted out that under the framework of this agreement, Japan-Australia defense cooperation has been heating up year after year and achieved several "firsts":
In 2010, the two countries signed the "Mutual Provision of Materials and Labor Agreement", and Australia became the "first" outside the United States to sign with Japan Countries with such agreements; in 2015, Japan "first" sent the Self-Defense Forces to participate in the US-Australia "Guardian Sabre" joint military exercise; in 2016, Japanese ships "first" appeared in Sydney Harbour since the Pacific War; 2019 year, the first Japan-Australia joint air exercise " Bushido Guardian - 2019" was held in Japan...
until the "Reciprocal Access Agreement" in January this year was another "first time".
Japan and Australia gradually strengthen the "paramilitary alliance", what is the reason?
A scholar of Asia-Pacific issues believes that there is not only the external influence of the United States, but also the needs of both sides.
It is obvious that Japan and Australia have become two important pawns in the US " Indo-Pacific strategy ". Since the Biden administration came to power, it has promoted the implementation of the "Indo-Pacific Strategy", developed the " Indo-Pacific Economic Framework " in terms of economy, and established the "Quartet Security Dialogue" of the United States, Japan, India and Australia, and the AUKUS Trilateral Alliance in terms of security, and encouraged regional allies. The bilateral military cooperation between China and China is trying to weave a dense net to contain China.
Japan and Australia strengthen defense cooperation in this atmosphere, and there are factors that cater to Washington . At the same time, by strengthening defense cooperation with Australia, Tokyo can take the opportunity to move forward in the direction of breaking through the restrictions of the pacifist constitution and find more excuses to send troops overseas.
Not only Australia, but Japan's defense interactions with other Western countries are also becoming frequent.
Not to mention, since this month alone, on the 11th, Japan and the United Kingdom reached an agreement on strengthening defense cooperation, including speeding up the joint research and development of the next-generation fighter aircraft; ”; the news that Japan intends to strengthen cooperation with the “ Five Eyes Alliance ” has also become hot again.
As for Australia, the Labour government has shown a certain tendency to be pragmatic after it came to power, but the anti-China inertia that has persisted over the past few years is still continuing, and the mentality of using the United States to maintain its "sub-hegemony" in its region is still at play, and it has expanded its military internally and The urge to cooperate externally with Washington's agenda such as AUKUS and the " Quad Security Dialogue " has not receded significantly.
It is precisely because of these factors that Japan and Australia continue to escalate military cooperation under the pretext of "China threat".
But how long this trend or degree of warming can last may be variable.
A scholar at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute said that both Australia and Japan have noticed that the US' commitment to the "Indo-Pacific" may falter in the future. And just two years ago, Washington was still trying to "stab" its allies. Will such a day repeat itself in two years?
The reliability of the United States has become an elusive cloud of doubt lingering on the heads of allies.
In addition, the internal situation of Japan and Australia is also becoming more complicated, and it is bound to be transmitted to the foreign policy level through elections and other mechanisms. For example, the continuous clamor for military expansion and confrontation is causing more and more intense concern and opposition from people of insight in the two countries.
An interesting phenomenon is that although Australian public opinion has some reports and attention to Kishida's visit to Australia, the "excitement" is obviously not as good as that of the Japanese media and a series of "sources" close to the government.
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