On June 13th, Beijing time, the finals g3 started with a fierce battle. The Mavericks who fell behind 0-2 will strive to come back. In the past two games, the Green Army's five-out style has made the Mavericks very uncomfortable. Now, it is confirmed that Porzingis will miss G3 due to injury, which will have a certain impact on the continuity of the five-out style. Let us look at the impact of this style of play on the Mavericks from a data perspective.
came from sportradar and posted a data table. When the opponent's players hit the penalty area with the ball, the proportion of time the Mavericks players were in the penalty area -
In the first three rounds, Gafford accounted for 44% and Lively accounted for 44%. Compared with 23%, Doncic's was 10%, Jones was 8%, Washington was 6%, and Irving was 4%. In the first two games of the finals, Gafford's share was only 24%. Compared with the first three rounds, it dropped. The range reached 45%; Lively accounted for only 14%, and the decline reached 39%. The remaining four players have increased to varying degrees. Doncic has an increase of 13%, an increase of 33%; Jones has an increase of 9%, an increase of 14%; Washington has an increase of 13%, an increase of 100%, and Irving is the most exaggerated, reaching 11%, an increase of 160%!
This data fully illustrates the power of the Green Army's five-out play. They successfully moved the Green Army's two major centers out of the penalty area, forcing smaller players to defend the inside. Irving, who is 1.88 meters tall, appears more frequently in defense inside. . Therefore, although the proportion of the Green Army playing inside is not large, the shooting rate is extremely high.
data shows that in the first two games, the Green Army took 47 shots within 5 feet of the basket and hit 36 goals, with a shooting percentage of 76.6%, while the Mavericks took 57 shots within the same range and hit 35 goals. The hit rate is 61.4%, which is still far behind the Green Army.
Without comparison, there is no harm. Take , the Timberwolves , the opponent of the Mavericks in the Western Conference Finals. They are also facing the Mavericks. The Timberwolves do not have enough space to mobilize the two centers of the Mavericks, so their inside shooting rate is not the same. It's not ideal. During the Western Conference Finals, the Timberwolves took 144 shots within 5 feet of the basket, hitting 85 goals, and the shooting rate was only 59%, which was the lowest among the four teams participating in the conference finals.
Let’s take a look at the chart below. The points on the chart are the defensive positions of the Mavericks’ two centers when the opponent’s players shoot. The blue dot is the position against the Timberwolves in the last round (Lively was in g3 and g5 of the Western Conference Finals, and Gafford was in g4 and g5 of the Western Conference Finals), and the green dot is the position of against the Celtics in the first two games of the finals. .
The information revealed in these positions is very clear. The two centers of the Mavericks have obviously been moved out of the penalty area. When the opponent took a shot, Lively's average positioning distance from the basket in G3 and G5 of the Western Conference Finals was 8.7 feet, but in the first two games of the Finals, his average positioning distance was 13 feet. When the opponent also took a shot, Gafford's average stance distance in G4 and G5 of the Western Conference Finals was 12 feet.
It can be said that the Celtics' five-out strategy has greatly weakened the defensive threat of the Mavericks' two centers. Although Porzingis is determined to be absent in G3, Horford can also open up the space on the court. The Mavericks still need to solve this problem.
data shows that Horford's three-point shooting percentage in the regular season was 41.9%, and he could also reach 37.5% in the finals. However, the lack of Boshen is still a big blow to the Green Army's substitutes and basket protection. In the first two games, when Porzingis was on the court, the Green Army won by 25 points, but when he was not on the court, the Green Army tied with the Mavericks. Can the Lone Ranger seize the opportunity to come back? let us wait and see.
