Gold shop quotation today金价 | 单位 | |
老庙黄金价格 | 526 | 元/克 |
六福黄金价格 | 532 | 元/克 |
周大福黄金价格 | 532 | 元/克 |
周六福黄金价格 | 533 | 元/克 |
金至尊黄金价格 | 532 | 元/克 |
老凤祥黄金价格 | 534 | 元/克 |
潮宏基黄金价格 | 502 | 元/克 |
周生生黄金价格 | 531 | 元/克 |
菜百黄金价格 | 520 | 元/克 |
周大生黄金价格 | 528 | 元/克 |
但由于缺乏任何新的Triggering factors, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a narrow range in the near future. The performance of the US dollar, inflation data, and the Fed rate hike path will be the main factors affecting gold prices in 2023.
At 19:42 Beijing time, spot gold fell 0.61% to $1,802.50 an ounce; the main COMEX gold futures contract fell 0.73% to $1,809.8 an ounce; US dollar index fell 0.04% to 104.155.
On the 14th of this month, the U.S. dollar index fell to a new low of 103.44 since mid-June, and the Federal Reserve announced on the same day that it would lower the rate hike rate to 50 basis points. However, Fed officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell, have since emphasized that the rate hike cycle will be extended and interest rate peaks will be higher.
Is Fed policy limited?
Recently, prices of commodities such as crude oil have fallen, and data shows that supply chain problems have eased. However, the easing of inflation did not satisfy the Fed, mainly because the Fed's interest rate hikes suppressed some demand-induced inflation and had limited impact on inflation caused by rising costs and supply constraints.
Decades of high inflation in the United States can be attributed to supply and demand imbalances. Affected by the epidemic, aggregate demand has neither increased nor decreased significantly. It has remained almost at pre-pandemic levels, but overall supply has fallen sharply.
For the Fed, the final level of interest rates is more important than the pace of rate hikes. The Fed is on track to achieve its 2% inflation target. On the one hand, higher interest rates have prompted investors to put more and more money into the United States.On the other hand, the U.S. economic fundamentals are more stable than other countries, so investors worried about a global recession are increasing their investments in the U.S.
State Street Bank in Tokyo branch manager Bart Wakabayashi said:“The dollar is in a very interesting position. If there is a recession in the U.S., the Fed will have to cut rates, obviously you will want to sell the dollar. At the same time, if there is a global In a recession, people buy the dollar as a safe haven. So you have to be very careful whether you buy or sell the dollar.”
Worried about a U.S. recession?
On the economic data front, the housing market will continue to struggle as rising mortgage rates drive home prices down, but the U.S. goods trade deficit narrowed to $83.35 billion in November from $98.8 billion the previous month.
The U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell to 49 in November earlier, below the recession signal line of 50, which does suggest that higher interest rates are cooling the manufacturing sector. However, the services PMI jumped to 56.5 from 54.4, suggesting that it is still expanding and won't collapse any time soon. The service sector employs more than 80 percent of the U.S. workforce.
The central bank predicts that the federal funds interest rate will climb above 5% next year, while Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other Fed officials have emphasized that rates may need to be kept higher for longer to completely curb inflation. The dollar has given back some of its gains in recent weeks, and whether the reversal continues will depend in part on how hawkish investors feel the Fed is relative to other global central banks. But fears of a U.S. economy in recession are rising due to continued interest rate hikes.
Geojit Financial Services director of commodities research Hareesh V. said,due to the thin trading activity ahead of the New Year holidays, and no important economic data this week,gold prices are limited.
Limited USD upside
While the US government is happy with the state of the US economy, experts are concerned about the strengthening of the US dollar, which has affected global developments. The Fed has been aggressively raising interest rates in the face of decades of high inflation. Many central banks are forced to follow in the footsteps of the Federal Reserve to prevent rising inflation and maintain economic development.
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD) and International Monetary Fund(IMF) predict that inflation(currently at a 40-year high) and central banks holding it with higher interest rates will lead to Global growth slows to 2.2% in 2023, down from a previous estimate of 2.8%. This outlook is supported by recent declines in the composite leading indicators for most of the OECD's major economies. Furthermore, the IMF noted in its latest report that downside risks to the economic outlook remain unusually large.
Despite central banks tighteningmonetary policyFiscal policyremains expansionary as governments (mostly in Europe) try to protect households and businesses from the erosion of disposable income from rising energy prices and soaring inflation influences. Monetary authorities are therefore likely to raise interest rates for a longer period of time to cool headline inflation and stabilize expectations. The prospect has been exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, which has weighed on energy and food prices. The heightened uncertainty could cause some companies to delay and possibly cancel spending on major capital projects.
The surge in the dollar this year has hurt the earnings of many US companies, making it more expensive for multinationals to convert their earnings back into their own currencies. In November, the dollar not only weakened, but lost 5% of its value, a decline that continued in December. This means that the current round of dollar appreciation is coming to an end, and the subsequent upside is very limited.
Spot gold looks at $1,836
On the daily chart, spot gold has started a three-wave upward trend from $1,784, and the upper resistance is looking at the 61.8% target of $1,836 and the 76.4% target of $1,848. The 3rd wave is a sub-wave of the upward (3) wave that started at $1725.
