文丨Yang Minzhe
This is the twelfth article of the author’s annual thoughts on the life insurance industry, and it is also the most difficult one to write.
发展轨迹变了，承压趋势没变；
市场格局变了，监管导向没变；
经营逻辑变了，转型方向没变；
行业生态变了，底层逻辑没变。
2021 is definitely the most challenging year for China’s life insurance industry in its 42 years of resumption of business, and it is also a rare year in which the growth rate of insurance premiums fails to outperform the growth rate of GDP.
Combined with the changes in the macro environment, regulatory environment, and micro-individual insurance, bank insurance , health insurance and other subdivisions, it will affect the traditional life insurance business model that has been around for hundreds of years, up to the top companies, Down to the small and medium-sized business entities, they all hesitated and turned around this year, and demanded opportunities for breakthroughs.
But China’s population of 1.4 billion, per capita GDP of 10,000 US dollars, the pressure of pension and medical care under the accelerated aging, the birth of a huge middle class...all reflect the future of China’s life insurance industry, which is a world-class A big market must be brewing with a world-class influential enterprise.
How to break through the fog and determine the future? Only speculation and practice. In the face of difficulties, it is very meaningful to review 2021 to identify crises and opportunities. This is also the original intention of this article. In addition to analyzing and summarizing the present, it also makes a relatively systematic sorting out and deduction of the context of 2022.
上篇
2021年中国寿险业回眸：四大维度解读全年脉络
最近四年以来，在宏观经济、监管制度、新冠疫情等多重因素影响下，中国寿险业发展遭遇较大挑战，新单保费Growth is under pressure, industry competition is significantly differentiated, sales force continues to shrink, the market is forcing business transformation, and the development trend of the entire life insurance industry has completely changed. The official definition is a period of active adjustment, and the industry calls it a period of transformation and change.
Looking back at 2021, through the interpretation of annual hot events, insight into the plight of the industry's continuous pressure and intensified differentiation; explore the trajectory of industry transformation and development and innovation breakthroughs.
①产品端：新旧重疾险切换+短期健康险规范
事件：2020年四季度，银保监会发布《重大疾病保险的疾病定义使用规范（2020年修订版）》，规定所有使用旧All defined critical illness insurance products will be removed from shelves before January 31, 2021; on January 11, 2021, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the "Notice on Regulating Short-term Health Insurance Business Relevant Issues", regarding the falsely high insurance coverage of short-term health insurance , non-standardized sales underwriting and disorderly competition, etc., and clarified that short-term health insurance shall not guarantee renewal, and shall not use "automatic renewal", "promised renewal", "lifetime limit" and other easy and long-term health insurance policies. Dangerously confusing words.
Interpretation:
2021 is off to a good start. During the transitional period of switching between the old and new critical illness insurance definitions, various insurance companies took advantage of the opportunity to set off a wave of "switching". Attributable to the low point, the annual growth rate is high and low.
Critical illness insurance, as a basic product of life insurance companies, is very important to both the new business value of insurance companies and the long-term development of the industry. The adjustment of the definition also makes the definition of critical illness insurance compensation more scientific and reasonable.
On the other hand, as the industry's "net celebrity" insurance in recent years, short-term health insurance has grown rapidly through Internet channels, and million-dollar medical insurance has become one of the main hot spots in the life insurance market, but behind the rapid development has also brought many problems.
For example, product involution is becoming more and more serious, problems such as falsely high insurance amount under homogeneous competition, tie-in sales, short-term insurance and long-term operation are becoming more and more prominent, product value ratio continues to decline, loss ratio deterioration trend is obvious, etc., regulatory authorities Introduce a ban on short-term health insurance, address the stubborn problem of "fewer claims and high rates", and standardize "guaranteed renewal" and other sidelines. The implementation of new policies for the two major products will benefit the healthy development of the personal insurance market in the long run.
②队伍端：人力清虚+基本法修订+独代探索
事件：2021年12月31日，由《中国银行保险报》评选的2021年中国保险业十大新闻出炉，“保险代理人大幅Qingxu, the difficult transition of the life insurance industry to high-quality development" was listed among them.
According to internal communication data, the number of insurance agents of the top six life insurance companies representing the development vane of the life insurance industry has shrunk from nearly 7 million in 2020 to about 4.5 million by the end of 2021; Measures) in a year of comprehensive revision, Ping An Life Insurance new basic law highlights the improvement of excellence and education, supports the operation of the sales department, etc., and the new basic law of CPIC Life highlights the orientation of performance, focusing on the retention of newcomers, etc.
Interpretation:
In recent years, the life insurance industry has increased employeesdividendscontinuously attenuated, and 2021 will make matters worse. The rapid diversion of the employee market.
As we all know, the current average monthly salary of insurance agents is significantly lower than the average salary of the society, under the commission systemthe income of insurance agents lacks basic protection; in order to meet diversified and individualized needs, customers’ requirements for the professional quality of insurance agents are constantly improving .
On the other side of the pyramid commission structure, there are also outstanding problems such as unreasonable distribution of benefits. This "mismatch of supply and demand, imbalance of distribution" has accelerated the continuous shrinking of the agent team. Insurance companies start with systems and mechanisms, amend the Basic Law, and change the distribution of benefits Orientation, organizational structure model, to explore a sustainable agent development path.
On the one hand, eliminate agents with no production capacity and low production capacity; on the other hand, pay more attention to recruiting high-quality agents to meet the urgent needs of life insurance market transformation.
At the same time, the Chinese version of the "single-generation model" has broken the ice and tested the water. Some small and medium-sized insurance companies have stepped up their exploration of the "single-generation team" and continuously enriched the diversified paths for the development of China's life insurance marketing organizations.
③Client: step inLongevity Era + Accelerate the Third Pillar
Event: In August 2021, Taikang Insurance Group Chen Dongsheng, chairman of Taikang Insurance Group, published the book "Longevity Era-Perspective on the Future of Human Beings from the Perspective of Longevity, Health and Abundance", which systematically expounded on the Entering the era of longevity is a major topic. With the deepening of aging, the entire social structure, industrial layout, and life concepts will undergo profound changes. The book also deeply introduces Taikang ’s innovative development and business practices in actively participating in the elderly care industry ;
In June 2021, exclusive commercial pension insurance will be piloted in Zhejiang Province and Chongqing City. Six large insurance companies including China Life Insurance and Taikang Life Insurance will participate in it. The pillar construction is accelerating; in September 2021, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission approved the preparation of the National Pension Insurance Co., Ltd.
Interpretation:
The release of the "Seventh Census" data in April 2021 provides all sectors of society, including the life insurance industry, with an important opportunity to examine China's population and even the economy and society. Development brings new opportunities such as elderly care and medical care;
On January 17, 2022, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that by the end of 2021, China’s population aged 65 and above will be 200.56 million, accounting for 14.2% of the national population. into the aging society.
Standardizing the development of the third pillar of pension insurance has been listed as a key task by the Party Central Committee and the State Council. This is not only a major opportunity for commercial insurance companies, but also a national strategy related to the national economy and people's livelihood.
How to participate in the construction of the national multi-level and multi-pillar pension insurance system has become an important task during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period of the insurance industry, and it is also an important part of improving and deepening the reform of the insurance industry. Taikang has innovated a new business model of "insurance + medical care", leading the new fashion in the era of longevity. Major insurance companies have followed suit to accelerate the deployment of pension insurance and medical care industries.
According to the survey of Taikang Health Investment, as of November 2021, insurance institutions have deployed the pension industry in 34 cities across the country, with more than 130,000 pension beds. Insurance companies have deployed pension services through various models and expanded the value chain. The age of longevity is deepening Affect the business logic of the life insurance industry.
④Regulatory side: rectify self-insurance products + crack down on illegal products + blow up new regulations
Incident: In September 2021, the Beijing Banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau successively issued notices to sales personnel on self-insurance products and mutual insurance products Many local regulatory agencies such as Chongqing have followed up;
In July 2021, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the "Notice on the Normalization of the Banking and Insurance Industry to Carry Out the Work of Sweeping Gangsters and Eliminating Evil", requiring attention to "abnormal surrender of insurance" and focusing on governance " "Agent Surrender" illegal production;
At the end of November, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission drafted the "Personal Insurance Sales Management Measures (Draft for Comment)" which was disclosed by the media, which quickly caused a shock in the industry. , The whole process is involved, and it puts forward normative requirements on sensitive issues such as sales misleading, self-insurance and mutual insurance, commission system, etc., proposes hierarchical and classified management of sales personnel and products, and establishes a product sales suitability management system.
interpret :
In recent years, misleading sales, self-insurance arbitrage, unlawful surrender of insurance, and data falsification have occurred frequently, seriously disrupting the insurance market environment and even affecting the legitimate rights and interests of insurance consumers.
In 2021, the supervision will again mention the reputation management of the insurance "industry image", resolutely resist "self-insurance arbitrage" and "surrender illegal industry" and other industry chronic diseases. Various regulatory regulations have been introduced one after another, and punishments will be increased to promote the healthy and high-quality development of the industry ;Insurance also continues to strengthen systems such as integrity management and compliance management, compacting responsibilities, and jointly maintaining a good order in the development of the industry.
The "Draft for Comment" has a huge and far-reaching impact on my country's life insurance industry, and the relevant rules have directly penetrated into the most critical links in the operation and management of the entire life insurance industry: sales personnel and products.
It can be foreseen that the implementation of the new regulatory regulations will, in the short term, create inhibitory pressure on the performance growth and employee expansion of insurance institutions; healthy growth.
Every major regulatory change is an opportunity for industry transformation, stick to long-term beliefs, systematically control arbitrage, black industry and other industry ills, and comprehensively regulate sales management, so that the life insurance industry can self-revolution, and truly achieve high-quality development in the industry Kangzhuang Avenue.
Part 2
China’s life insurance industry outlook in 2022: Thinking about the evolution of the future in seven ways
Facing the old saying, opportunities and challenges, and 202z. How to study and judge the development environment, how to set the tone of the regulatory theme, how to transform the business model, how to empower technology-driven, whether the new business can be stabilized, whether the manpower dilemma can be broken through, and whether product innovation can break the circle...
Longevity Era Dividends
Economic and social development is the fundamental aspect of life insurance industry development.
The turbulent international situation, complex and sensitive China-US relations, and the global spread of the new crown epidemic have added uncertainty to China’s economic and social development, but China’s economic development and epidemic prevention and control remain world-leading, building The new development pattern has taken new steps, and the "14th Five-Year Plan" has started well:
The recently held Central Economic Work Conference released a series of clear signals that in 2022, the economic work will be stable, make progress while maintaining stability, and be in transition Only by conforming to the general trend and adapting to the major cycle can the life insurance industry in the painful period have a clear positioning and steadily promote various tasks; Focus, in the context of deep aging, life insurance companies actively participate in the construction of multi-level and multi-pillar pension insurance systems, develop more pension, health insurance products and services, and steadily promote the pilot project of long-term care insurance system. The public's rigid demand for medical care is a continuous dividend for the life insurance industry.
②Regulatory theme: set the tone for high quality and maintain strict supervision
The first meeting of the new year, set the tone for high quality.
On January 6, 2022, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission held a "Symposium on Promoting the High-Quality Development of the Insurance Industry".Opinions and suggestions on excessive competition, achieving differentiated operations, and better serving the real economy, etc., summarize the achievements of the development of the insurance industry, scientifically analyze the situation, and clarify the goals and tasks of the high-quality development of the industry;
The conference believes that: Insurance industry experience Years of extensive development have caused many problems. Only by rectifying the market chaos and eliminating historical problems can the regulators promote the long-term and healthy development of the insurance industry. This meeting will set the main tone and wind vane for the future development of the industry.
In 2022, the life insurance industry will continue to be strictly supervised, and a series of measures such as deepening regulatory policies and normalizing close supervision will continue. In the long run, only by transforming to high-quality development can a new round of life insurance industry be healthy, fast, and Sustainability boom cycles.
③Business model: customer-centered, medical care integration experiential
In layman’s terms, a business model is the way an industry or company makes profits.
The business model of the traditional life insurance industry is product-centric, relying on "dead spreads, fee spreads, and interest spreads" to obtain profits. With the iteration of mainstream customer groups and changes in customer needs, the life insurance market has transitioned from a seller's market to a seller's market. Buyer's market, customer-centricity has become the main feature of the advanced business model of the life insurance industry.
With the advent of the era of longevity, public health and pension needs are increasing day by day. The business model innovation combining traditional life insurance with medical care entities has opened a new chapter in the development of the life insurance industry.
Take Taikang as an example. In 2007, it planned the layout of medical care and elderly care. In 2009, it was approved as a pilot retirement community. Scenario implantation and other experiential sales have become popular. Through a series of strategic layout and innovative practices, Taikang has created three closed loops of "longevity, health, and wealth". The integration of medical care and elderly care has become a new growth point and profit point for life insurance business. Based on Taikang's excellent practice , major life insurance companies have followed up the layout of medical care.
④Technology-driven: speed up top-level design, digitization 2.0
accelerate digital transformation is the core consensus and super practice of the life insurance industry.
At the beginning of December 2021, Zhou Liang, vice chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, pointed out in his speech at the forum that we should solidly promote development and sharing, use financial technology to accelerate digital transformation, and improve the inclusiveness and availability of financial services.
Recently, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the "Guiding Opinions on the Digital Transformation of the Banking and Insurance Industry", comprehensively promote the digital transformation of the banking and insurance industries from the height of top-level planning. In the next three years, the digital transformation of the life insurance industry will enter the 2.0 era. New algorithms will enrich new technologies, new technologies will activate new scenarios, penetrate into the entire process of business operations, cover the entire process of team growth, and empower the entire cycle of customer operations.
On the enterprise side, accelerate the construction of an operation and management system for Internet customers, promote online and intelligent marketing, training, and organizational development, strengthen the infrastructure construction of big data centers, and establish operations that are "sensitive at the front end and stable at the back end" system; in the field of life insurance marketing, while precision marketing and 020 models are constantly being upgraded, private domain traffic, live video streaming, and mini-program applications will become more popular and in-depth.
⑤ New business: Insufficient growth momentum, the cycle of pressure is still
New business is the most critical business indicator for life insurance companies, and the long-term regular payment and rollover model of life insurance products continues to bring about continuous growth in total premiums.
Since 2018, new policy premiums in the life insurance industry have shown continuous negative growth. In 2021, major life insurance companies failed to get out of the negative growth situation. If the low base factor affected by the epidemic in 2020 is considered, the life insurance industry has entered a deep adjustment cycle.
According to the basic laws of the global life insurance industry, the growth of new business comes from two major driving factors, one is sales force and the other is per capita production capacity.
With the rapid decline of organizational development dividends, the crowd tactics basically come to an end; behind the increase in per capita production capacity is the purchasing power of customers and the professionalization of the sales force, and the increase in production capacity is a gradual and slow process. Especially in the past four years, the scale of annuity products has shrunk significantly, and the agency Manpower production has also entered a bottleneck period.
From the analysis of growth momentum, the new business will still be under pressure for some time to come. Boston released "Life Insurance Marketing - Choice at the Crossroads" and believes that this round of transformation will be a long cycle.
⑥Sales force: Manpower continues to shrink, structure has been optimized
The decline of sales manpower is a phenomenon, and the mismatch of demand matching is the main reason.
Looking at the underlying logic: Life insurance owners’ mainstream customer base is accelerating iteration, per capita GDP12,000 US dollars indicates that China is entering the ranks of middle-income countries, and the rise of the middle class is a high-quality soil for the development of the life insurance industry; on the other hand, post-80s and post-90s Growing into an intermediate force in society, the consumption concepts, living habits, and risk preferences of the new generation group are different from traditional customer groups, while the age and concept of the existing insurance agent team are generally aging, and there is a gap with the professional needs of mainstream customer groups;
From the perspective of development law: The life insurance industry is mainly driven by manpower in the early stage, and agents enter and exit in large numbers. When it develops to a new stage, organizational development has shifted from "demographic dividend" to "talent dividend", and the rapid decline in scale and manpower is an inevitable trend.
In 2021, it will be cleared quickly, and in 2022, it will be gradually consolidated. The era of "big water and big fish" is over, and the era of "deep cultivation of fish ponds" is coming. Optimal growth has become a basic strategy for organizational development. Newly-increased people are inclined towards high-quality, new generations, and main urban areas , Major life insurance companies have launched a performance optimization team training system, gradually consolidating the structure of the insurance agent team and gradually optimizing it.
⑦Product innovation: from "+health" to "ecology+"
Products are the core carrier of life insurance operations, providing customers with protection and services through products.
Life insurance companies design accident insurance, health insurance, life insurance and other personal insurance products around the life cycle of people's life cycle , such as life insurance, health insurance, life insurance and other personal insurance products, and innovate and expand to new forms such as critical illness insurance, annuity insurance, universal insurance, and investment-linked insurance.
Product homogeneityCompetition is one of the prominent problems in the development of my country's life insurance industry. After the market-oriented reform of premium rates, the vitality of product innovation in my country's life insurance industry has been further released, and the supervisory level's leading insurance is the basic direction of product innovation and regulation.
While the form is rich and returning to protection, the product value-added system featuring health services is constantly improving, and "product + health" has become the basic configuration of life insurance products, providing customers withThe products are supported by medical green pass , health testing, online consultation, medical consultation, elderly care and other services.
With the diversification of customer needs and market competition, the main battlefield of product innovation has shifted to the construction of an ecological circle. On the one hand, it will build an online and offline digital ecosystem, and on the other hand, it will create a comprehensive health ecosystem for elderly care and medical care. "Ecology + products" will help Product innovation and upgrading, breaking the circle.
结语:三十而立
《论语·为政》:"吾十有五而志于学，三十而立。"
《论语·泰伯》:"不知礼，无以立也。"
"Established at thirty" refers to a person's accomplishments around the age of thirty.
In 1992, AIA returned to Shanghai and introduced the insurance agent system to the Mainland, opening a new chapter in the rapid development of China’s life insurance industry. Looking back on the development of life insurance marketing in the past 30 years, great achievements have been made, but problems are not small.
2022 is an important node in the 30-year history of China's life insurance marketing. From the perspective of historical cycles, we will analyze the current situation in depth, judge the development trend from the perspective of development laws, cultivate new opportunities in crises, and open new games in changing situations. In the face of major changes, there is great potential for the development of life insurance.
adhere to the core concept of high-quality development, and build a stable country;
adhere to the long-term business philosophy, make contributions;
2022, foreshadowing stands.
(The author is Taikang Life)
