Hello, everyone, welcome to pay attention to Tianyue Financial Observation. Many friends in the comment area left a message saying that the sound of my video soundtrack is too loud, which affects the viewing experience. In response, I announced a 700 billion easing for the main volume and a 50 basis point reduction for the background volume. At the same time, please move the text to the headline number. All the people who gave me advice are good comrades, thank you! If you have a better tuning method, you are also welcome to private message me.
As of yesterday, the US stock market has 3 meltdowns left. The topic of a week in a row has made everyone a little tired, so today I would like to talk with you about the topic of bottom-hunting in the stock market.
The history of US stocks over the past 100 years tells us that every stock market crash is the spring of long-term investors, but there are always many friends who are bottom-hunting and die on the mountainside. How much is the bottom line for each stock market crash? Even Graham can't escape this curse. After the stock market bubble burst in 1929, Graham began to hunt for the dips. Despite being very cautious, he still lost 20% in 1930. He felt the worst was over and took out a loan to invest in stocks. Later, the so-called bottom was repeatedly broken, and in 1932 the joint account fell. More than 70%, Graham is also on the verge of bankruptcy. At that time, the famous economist Fisher had foreseen the bursting of the stock market bubble in 1929, but he still bought stocks that he thought were cheap, and received the goods on schedule. You see, there is always such a drama between rational correctness and emotional paranoia, even the masters are not exempt. Time is concerned, the stock market is here, let's go to the futures market when we come out.
has the same fate in the futures market, and James Cordier, an old fritter who has been in the futures market since the age of 14, also published in 2004, "The Complete Guide to Option Selling" as Textbook-like existence has been sought after for a long time. His trading method is simple, but he is extremely confident in his own trading strategy. When he talked about the company's investment strategy, he said: "Our goal is to take the most aggressive tool and manage it conservatively.
When I talk about Kodil in the future, I will give an example, if there are 10,000 Investment managers, assume that each of them has an equal probability of winning and losing. At the end of the first year, it is expected that 5,000 investment managers will make money and 5,000 investment managers will lose money. Assume that the losing investment managers are out of the game, and the money making continues. In the second year, the conditions are not Change, 2,500 make money, 2,500 lose money, and so on. By the fifth year, there are still 313 profit-making managers. The remaining 313 investment managers have an impressive record of 5 consecutive years of continuous profit, don't you? Would you choose him to help you manage your finances? If your answer is no, please pay attention to what the publicity materials for stock fund fundraising say.
In fact, due to the existence of volatility, some people will make money, which Pure luck. Those who don't understand can go to Baidu for themselves: Survivor Fallacy.
The biggest illusion in the world is usually that this is stable, and so does James Cordier. He thinks he makes money because His trading strategy was successful, but in fact it was just because he was lucky. In futures trading, buying a call option locks in the right to buy the security at a certain price in the future, but you pay a right first Gold , the proportion of the premium to the future purchase cost is generally very small. And the trader who sells the option is actually betting that the opponent will not exercise the option, so that he can make a premium while lying down.
James Cody The reason for Ernest's liquidation is that he sold naked short on call options on U.S. natural gas without any hedging protection. As a result, the natural gas skyrocketed, the opponents collectively exercised the option, and the Kedier account went through the position. Not only did he lose all Principal, and a debt to securities brokers.
has made the most dangerous strategy in derivatives trading his main trading strategy, and advertised to his investors that this strategy is very safe. Although he and his fans are based on Past track record and experience firmly believe they are right, but in reality this is just a causal illusion in philosophy.
Reid Heidis said: "One tries to understand everything and oftentimes knows nothing" Out of fear, people usuallyI hate uncertainty, so I always try to find a certain basis from my past knowledge and experience, and convince myself accordingly. But this empirical basis is often wrong, and in capital markets, this is especially deadly.
can listen to my friends who came here, it's time to receive the prize, let's grab the dry goods next.
This stock market crash is similar to the 1987 stock market crash:
(1) all fell sharply.
(2) The long-term trend of economic development is still positive.
(3) all caused short-term plunges of all assets under the stampede of short-term liquidity.
In 1987, the fall was almost completed in a month of October. But the bottom lingered until November of the following year, after which a long-term bull market began.
The current spread of the epidemic, information confusion, market panic, the resulting stampede decline, and the stock market plummeting were also completed within a month. The direct impact of the epidemic will continue into the third quarter of this year, and the impact on disposable income, as well as the long-term impact on the industry, is expected to basically recover by the middle of next year.
Conclusion: The plunge has entered its final stages and is expected to bottom in April. After that, it will continue to fluctuate for a year or so. A year later, restart a new bull market.