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Article | "Xiaokang" · China Xiaokang.com Yuan Kai
Under the background that "light" is rising, it is more important to pay attention to whether the "light chasers" are really transforming or taking the opportunity to hype .
In 2022, the photovoltaic industry will gain enough attention in the capital market and become a rising star on the energy track. As soon as a listed company is involved in photovoltaics, the stock price of immediately rises, and has become commonplace in the A-share market.
According to statistics, since the beginning of this year, nearly 30 listed companies have crossed over to the photovoltaic industry, including Lvkang Biochemical, which deals in veterinary drugs, Huamin, which produces wear-resistant materials, and Mubang, which specializes in educational toys. High-tech, there is Zhengbang Technology that is engaged in pig breeding...
Why do all kinds of listed companies plunge into the photovoltaic industry at the same time? With the hot energy, has photovoltaic become a new outlet? Under the background that "light" is rising, what needs to be noticed is whether the "light chasers" are really transforming or taking the opportunity to hype. Photo source/helloorf
What is the cross-border photovoltaic of listed companies?
"There are many industries in the photovoltaic industry, most of which have low entry barriers, and overlap with ordinary electronics, hardware, plastics, chemicals and other industries, not only there is no special Compared with other industries, the profit of the entire photovoltaic industry chain is much higher than that of other industries. In the case of rapid technology updates and iterations, traditional photovoltaic companies do not have the first-in advantage that can determine the outcome, but the latecomers can directly adopt new technologies and complete the transcendence.
At the same time, under the background that "light" is rising, it is more important to pay attention to whether the "light chasers" are really transforming or taking the opportunity to hype.
On September 15th, the “cross-border player” Jiangsu Sunshine , which has been questioned for a long time, made a sudden announcement in the evening and was investigated by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. The company's stock price fell by the limit of directly. On March 8 this year, Jiangsu Sunshine announced that it plans to set up a wholly-owned subsidiary of Inner Mongolia Chengan New Energy Co., Ltd. in Inner Mongolia, with a registered capital of 2 billion yuan, mainly engaged in photovoltaic business. As soon as the announcement came out, the company's stock price soared, and it gained 5 daily limit in 6 trading days, and the increase of was as high as 52%.
On April 22, Jiangsu Sunshine announced again that it plans to invest 20 billion yuan to build a photovoltaic new energy industry chain project, and build 100,000 tons of polysilicon , 10GW single crystal rods (including slices), 10GW cells and modules. ; In addition, a 10GW photovoltaic power station project will be constructed.
However, Jiangsu Sunshine's total assets are 4.806 billion yuan, and its net assets are only 2.334 billion yuan. It is almost difficult to support large-scale photovoltaic projects of over 20 billion yuan in terms of capital. This makes people have to question whether Jiangsu Sunshine’s cross-border photovoltaic is really transforming, or is it taking the opportunity to hype?
In fact, cross-border companies are focused on by supervision, and “whether it caters to hot hype stock prices” has become a question that many companies need to answer .
For example, the pig-raising giant Zhengbang Technology's 40 billion yuan photovoltaic cooperation project received a letter of concern; Mubang Hi-Tech repeatedly disclosed the photovoltaic cell project, and the company received an inquiry letter; Lvkang Biochemical Company announced that it plans to increase the premium and cross-border Acquired a photovoltaic company and received a letter of concern.
For crossovers, whether it is transformation or hype, may still need the real performance growth after the relevant projects are implemented to give the answer.
Power generation projects in the photovoltaic industry chain become mainstream
"Photovoltaic industry" is a photoelectric conversion industry chain formed by the application and development of silicon materials, including the production of high-purity polysilicon raw materials, solar cell production, solar cell module production, and related production equipment manufacturing Wait.
Whether it is a real crossover or an opportunity to hype, in the face of the swarms of crossovers, whether the photovoltaic industry will face excess capacity or intensified competition in the industry is the primary issue.
The reporter found out that among the 26 cross-border photovoltaic listed companies, 15 of them have clearly stated that they have crossed borders to photovoltaic power generation and photovoltaic power plants, and the rest are scattered in photovoltaic energy storage, photovoltaic brackets, silicon wafers, and other fields.
NorthQi Haishen, President of Jingteyi Sunshine New Energy, said that in the photovoltaic industry chain, photovoltaic power plants are the application scenarios of photovoltaic equipment and also the end market. The risk of entering this field is relatively small, because photovoltaic power plants have both energy attributes and financial resources. Attribute, photovoltaic power station investment is not only a green financial asset, but also can participate in green electricity transactions, which is a good investment target.
According to the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the Outline of Vision for 2035, building a modern energy system and vigorously increasing the scale of photovoltaic power generation have become important tasks during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. At the same time, with the gradual maturity of photovoltaic technology, the rapid rise of the new generation of information technology and the rapid development of the photovoltaic industry and information technology are also accelerating the in-depth integration and development of photovoltaic industry and information technology. During the five-year period, it will effectively guide the intelligent upgrading of the industry, promote the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry, and thus promote the large-scale application of photovoltaic power generation.
According to Qi Haishen, a major constraint on photovoltaic power generation and power station construction is the large initial investment and long capital recovery period. However, thanks to the state's support in the construction of new energy systems, photovoltaic power generation and power station enterprises can More national preferential policies. This constraint is also virtually eliminated.
In fact, it is not just that cross-border companies are keen on photovoltaic power generation and photovoltaic power station construction. As a terminal industry, photovoltaic power generation and power station construction have always occupied half of the entire photovoltaic industry chain. At the technical level, the current solar photovoltaic power generation has matured, and the cost has dropped rapidly. In recent years, the development scale of my country's photovoltaic power generation and related industries has occupied the forefront of the world, especially in the world. In 2017, my country's photovoltaic power generation roughly accounted for 1/4 of the global photovoltaic power generation. In 2018, China's newly installed solar photovoltaic capacity was 43GW; by the end of 2018, my country's cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity had exceeded 170GW. At present, among the top 10 photovoltaic cell manufacturers in the world, Chinese enterprises occupy 8 seats, and Chinese enterprises account for more than 72% of the world's photovoltaic module production.
Perhaps, in the near future, photovoltaic power generation technology and its economics will reach a level comparable to conventional energy.
Will the production capacity of photovoltaic be excessive?
While the installed scale of photovoltaic power generation across the country continues to expand, all links in the photovoltaic industry chain are also accelerating production expansion. Take Jinbo Co., Ltd., a leader in the photovoltaic thermal field carbon and carbon components market as an example. Photovoltaic thermal field carbon and carbon products are Jinbo Co., Ltd.'s main source of income. The company's current market share exceeds 30%, ranking first in the industry. From the perspective of revenue structure, the company's photovoltaic business accounted for more than 95% from 2017 to 2021.
In the case of the expansion of the whole industry, will there be excess photovoltaic capacity?
On March 21, National Energy Administration released the national power industry statistics from January to February. Among them, as of the end of February, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation nationwide was about 320GW, a year-on-year increase of 22.7%. According to the forecast of LONGi Energy Research Institute, by 2030, the world's newly installed photovoltaic capacity needs to reach 1500GW to 2000GW, which is equivalent to 10 times the newly installed capacity in 2021.
"In the context of the vigorous development of renewable energy, with the release of silicon material expansion capacity and the fall in prices in all links of the industrial chain, it is expected that photovoltaic installed capacity will increase significantly in 2022." said Liu Jimao, founder of Hongda Photovoltaic.
In 2021, more than 140 countries and regions in the world have proposed the carbon neutrality goal. Affected by the epidemic, the demand for installed capacity has not been fully released under the condition of high prices in the photovoltaic industry chain, but the new installed capacity of photovoltaics in the world is still up to 170GW. In Liu Jimao's view, from January to February this year, the new grid connection of domestic photovoltaics reached 10.86GW, a year-on-year increase of 234%, and the export of modules reached 6.59 billion yuan. The achievements of the photovoltaic industry in the case of negative growth of the global economy have proved that there is no problem in the photovoltaic market itself, and the development direction of the photovoltaic industry is not wrong.
Regarding the rapid expansion of production capacity in the photovoltaic industry, Wang Bohua, honorary chairman of China Photovoltaic Industry Association , publicly stated that it is necessary to be vigilant against overcapacity in some links and the intensification of industry homogeneous competition after capacity expansion.
But people in the industry generally keepOptimism. Qi Haishen said that the global installed capacity of photovoltaics is likely to exceed the forecasts of many institutions before, reaching 270GW to 280GW, and the risk of overcapacity is relatively controllable. It is worth noting that the energy security crisis has once again sounded the alarm, and the global demand for renewable energy has also increased, which is also beneficial to the photovoltaic industry. In Qi Haishen's view, in terms of the production capacity of silicon wafers, cells, and modules, there has always been excess capacity, but it belongs to "structural excess capacity" and does not affect the overall situation.
Liu Jimao also pointed out that the photovoltaic industry is an industry with rapid technological development, advanced production capacity will not be excessive, and the market will only eliminate backward production capacity.
("Xiaokang" · China Xiaokang Network's exclusive feature)
This article was published in "Xiaokang" in the late October 2022 issue
