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high-end chips are about to cut off the news of , people's first feeling is that China's high-tech is "stuck" again. The taste of "stuck neck" is definitely not good, but obviously the United States is determined to "decouple" from our technology, what should we do? Shenzhen Satellite TV direct news reporter interviewed Liu Yawei, director of the Carter Foundation China Program, on this issue. How serious are the consequences of "cutting supply" of
high-end chips?
The two giants of American chips, AMD and Nvidia, have received government bans one after another, and they want to cut off the supply of high-end GPU chips to Chinese customers. The reason is nothing more than "national security". The serious consequence of this ban is that it will affect the development process of China's cloud computing , artificial intelligence , and even the entire Internet field.
How high-end is the banned Nvidia H100 GPU? According to industry insiders, 20 can sustain the equivalent of the entire world's Internet traffic. The so-called GPU chip is the "heart" of high-tech applications. It is not only used in "high-level" fields such as weather forecasting, oil exploration, aerospace fluid mechanics calculation, etc., but also widely used in the face that we are familiar with every day. Recognition, image recognition, training autonomous driving, etc. Industry insiders said that once the supply of the chip is cut off, major domestic data centers will not only be forced to reduce configuration, but the cost may also triple.
But ironically, the immediate and more direct consequence of this ban was that Americans created a "crash": last Thursday, U.S. chip stocks plummeted, and the main semiconductor index fell by more than 3%. Shares of AMD (AMD) fell nearly 6%, and even Nvidia stock tumbled 11% -- its biggest one-day drop since 2020. On the contrary, the stock prices of similar GPU companies in China have soared.
The Nvidia A100 GPU is also one of the chips banned by the Biden administration from exporting to China.
Why does the United States "harm others first"?
It's not surprising that America "harms others first".
Currently, China is the world's largest chip importer, accounting for 1/3 of the global semiconductor market. Nvidia originally occupied 90% of the domestic market in China, and was fully able to "make money lying down." But because of the US government's ban, the world's largest unified market may be handed over to Chinese GPU companies in the future. In this context, it is expected that the general trend of domestic GPU replacement will accelerate.
Meanwhile, Nvidia, which has invested heavily in high-end chips, is expected to lose about $400 million in potential sales and may be forced to move some of its operations out of China. These losses are all on the surface and clear at a glance.
Then why does the United States cut off the confession at the risk of "harming others"?
The U.S. Department of Commerce actually said the truth in a strategy document released on the 6th of this month: "Although the United States is still the global leader in chip design, it has lost its lead in the production of the most advanced chips." This means, The hegemony of the US in the chip industry has been threatened by China. Therefore, long-term pain is worse than short-term pain. Even if high-end chips lose money, they cannot be sold to China.
Can the US "Technology Iron Curtain" against China come true?
In fact, before restricting high-end chips, the United States has already set up a "tech iron curtain" against China:
1, since Trump came to power, there have been about 600 Chinese entities have been included in the export control list to systematically contain and "focus" on Chinese technology companies.
2, A month ago, Biden launched the "Chip Act", spending a lot of money ($280 billion) to bring chip manufacturing back to the United States and strictly control exports to China. How to strictly control it? In short, it is "coercion and inducement", forcing big chip companies around the world to choose between the United States and China. Those who have accepted US subsidies will not be able to invest in the production of chips within 28 nanometers in China within 10 years.
3, Biden also gathered Japan, South Korea and Taiwan to engage in a chip alliance in the so-called " first island chain ", the goal is to exclude China from the global semiconductor supply chain.
US President Biden signed the "Chip and Science Act of 2022" at the White House on August 9. Source: AFP
However, the British " Financial Times " believes that the United States may not be able to do so. The United States' "heavy blockade" of China may instead accelerate the development of China's chip industry. On the one hand, there are market factors. "Considering that cooperation with foreign companies may be cut off at any time, Chinese companies will naturally gradually turn to local suppliers." Among the chip companies, there are as many as 19 mainland Chinese companies. Taking the CMP, a key equipment for chip manufacturing, as an example, the 8-inch CMP of CEC Electronics Equipment Group has broken the monopoly of the United States and Japan for many years, and its market share in China has exceeded 70%. It has become an example of China relying on independent innovation to break through the blockade of other countries.
reported that it is only a matter of time before the breakthrough of China's chip industry, but also because "the semiconductor industry is all over the world, and it is difficult for any country to try to isolate other countries by itself." In the 1980s, the United States used unfair means to suppress the Japanese semiconductor industry, Once quite successful. But as a result, the suppression plan was abandoned halfway, because the cost is huge, and the US government's financial assistance is fickle.
Japan's Fuyue high-performance supercomputer was rated as the "world's strongest supercomputer" in 2020. In addition, the US "suppression" of China's aerospace industry is also a typical case. In 2011, the US Congress passed the " Wolfe Clause ", which prohibits NASA from conducting any exchanges with Chinese space agencies and scholars. However, 11 years later, this clause forced China to have its own International Space Station - " Tiangong ".
Zhang Rujing: The US is not so strong in restraint superior.
SMIC
founded by Zhang Rujing, although the current top level of international chip manufacturing is 4 nanometers, and will soon enter the 3 nanometer era, and the technology we master has only reached "14 nanometers", but Zhang Rujing believes that "if China is in 5G Staying ahead in technology, China will be far ahead in communications, artificial intelligence, cloud services, etc. in the future.” In addition, he also said that China has performed strongly in high-tech applications including packaging and testing.
Zhang Rujing also mentioned that as early as around 2005, SMIC's import of applied materials from the United States was blocked. Zhang Rujing had traveled to China and the United States many times, repeatedly emphasizing that "it will not be used for the military", and finally persuaded the US Department of Trade and the Department of Defense wait fiveThe regulator has released the export of 300mm chip equipment.
In fact, the United States has never sold the most advanced technology and products to China, and is subject to various US bans, which is the norm.
The US "technical dominance" towards China stems from its interests
However, the US's domineering behavior also illustrates another problem: not everything is mutually beneficial and win-win. For example, in the past experience, whether it is , Huawei , or SMIC, after purchasing and using American technology, they can produce more high-quality and cheap high-tech products. Therefore, the United States has always felt that it has suffered a loss and that it is not in the interests of the United States.
In fact, conflict of interest is the root cause, and the United States is obviously afraid of China's capabilities. Knowing the mentality of the United States behind it, there will be less unnecessary "victim" mentality in China, let alone anxiety. But at the same time, people must admit that in the chip industry, the United States does have a major advantage in first-mover technology. Under such conditions, how can China break through the "encirclement" set by its opponents?
Liu Yawei: "Self-hit" can't solve any problems, the focus is to cultivate internal skills
The Carter Foundation China Program Director Liu Yawei said in an interview with me that in the past few years, domestic companies have largely relied on buying technology, which is understandable , after all, the cost is much lower, and the hope of success is greater. However, under the comprehensive "encirclement and suppression" of the United States, the path to buy technology has basically been blocked. How to do?
Nvidia H100 GPU is banned from exporting to China. Source: NVIDIA official website
Some people are blindly optimistic that they can break through quickly, but the "self-healing" feeling good about themselves cannot solve any problems.
There are still people who believe in "spending big money", but the recent anti-corruption storm has made more people pay attention to the problem of " National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund Co., Ltd. " commonly known as "big fund". Facts have proved that if you spend money, there will be no good mechanism and no results.
After the "core making" movement, the industry has not achieved breakthrough results. Domestic chips, from a quantitative point of view, account for only 10% of the market, and the rest rely on imports; from a qualitative point of view, there is no breakthrough in the plight of 14-nanometer chips.
Liu Yawei believes that the first thing is to find out what the family is, what else needs to rely on foreign technology? Next, our focus is on how to cultivate internal strength and find a breakthrough.
" China's core " is impossible. It requires a global innovation and collaboration system. The chip industry is not like building the atomic bomb , nor like building a high-speed rail. High-tech industry with global cooperation.
For example: the United States has the most advanced technology, Netherlands has lithography machine , China has the most comprehensive manufacturing industry, China Huawei is engaged in chip design, Samsung and TSMC have strong chip production capabilities, etc. , It can be said that in the chip industry chain and supply chain cycle, every link is indispensable. That's why no country today can produce all the chips in a smartphone entirely on its own.
In 2016, China's "Sunway Taihu Light " became the world's No. 1 supercomputer, and has occupied the top position for four consecutive years.
In the final analysis, the chip can not be solved by the power of one country and hard work.Ultimately, "China Core" cannot stand alone. It requires a global innovation collaboration system and a trusted ecosystem, which is the most difficult. Therefore, an open system and continuously innovative talents are the foundation.
do not want to be isolated, only by being self-reliant and striving to be strong, being more open, integrating into the world, and letting the world embrace China and making China their biggest market for a long time, can the chip problem be solved easily. This may also be the cheapest way.
As Professor Zheng Yongnian said at the "2022 World Semiconductor Industry Development Forum" recently, the more globalization encounters difficulties, the more China should go out boldly, embrace the "third opening", and lead globalization.
How can Sino-US relations avoid a vicious circle?
The "high-tech war" of the United States against China has escalated again, which has also raised concerns about the "decoupling" of the Chinese and American economies. Dr. Liu Yawei, who accompanied President Carter to China for more than ten times, pointed out that exchanges and dialogues between China and the United States are still very important today. Because the core essence of resolving the Sino-US conflict is to change some misplaced cognitions on both sides, and achieve understanding and cooperation through mutual understanding.
This year is not only the 50th anniversary of Nixon's visit to China, but also the 30th anniversary of Deng Xiaoping's second southern tour. How to deal with the complex international situation, I have recently heard some rational voices from both China and the United States, which are worth recalling.
Zhang Baijia, the former deputy director of the Party History Research Office of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, wrote an article in "Beijing Daily" on September 5, referring to a past event: In the early 1960s, my country experienced a deterioration of the security environment. There are external reasons as well as internal reasons. In summarizing this period of Party history, Hu Qiaomu once said that we overestimated the external threat at that time, so we made an overreaction; this further increased the external pressure and our reaction became more intense, thus forming a malignant cycle. The article
said that today, while resisting the pressure, we must focus on how to avoid a vicious circle and strive for a more benign interaction. This is very important for the future development of our country.
The United States also has a positive " Zhihua faction" voice. Former Assistant Secretary of State Dong Yunshang publicly stated in an interview at the end of last month that she did not agree with the Trump administration's attitude towards China in the past. She believes that the United States and China should get rid of the "zero-sum competition mentality" and strengthen cooperation in various fields. Author of
| Wan Xia, Senior Editor of "Slow and Observe" of Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News
Editor丨Chen Miaosong, Editor of Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News
