(1)
Before deciding to start this topic, I actually hesitated for a long time.
Understanding a subject matter, mastering a craft, and fully expounding this logic are actually two different things. When writing this topic, it was also a process of studying and thinking again. Only through the fluctuation of stock price and understanding the logic behind can
continue to make profits in the repeating routine mode in the future.
is familiar with my friends. I should know that half a year ago, I published three ideas for speculating in film stocks with a total of nearly 10,000 characters. Now it seems that, not to mention that it was a bit brief at the time, and in recent months, the film policy has been more effective. A new change.
is therefore greatly expanded on this topic, and the final total is expected to break 30,000 words. In order to make readers less difficult to read, we will publish them one by one. I try my best to do it-even a novice who has been in the market for less than half a year can understand what I am talking about and avoid making principled and logical errors.
(2)
Today's first paragraph starts with the investment model of film stocks.
In my book "Quantitative Strategies for Growth Stocks" published this year, I summarized the methods based on fundamental analysis into the following six methods:
(1) Gerald (Greenham)’s price investment: underestimated by the enterprise The value is an absolute requirement. Look for stocks that do not suffer from a decline in growth (no serious negative growth), and that the development of the company is stable and sustainable (no bankruptcy or delisting), and sell when the company returns from a low valuation to a reasonable valuation. In one sentence: Measure the margin of safety and diversify reverse investment.
(2) Bashen (Buffett)’s price investment: the company’s sustainable and stable development is an absolute requirement, pay close attention to the company’s moat, and look for stocks with faster growth and reasonable valuations, that is, buy at a reasonable valuation Join a good company. Summarized in one sentence: select high-quality companies, long time companions.
(3) Cyclical stock investment: Taking the sudden change of corporate growth as an absolute requirement, ignoring the influencing factors of valuation, and accurately judging the duration of rapid growth at the same time, to achieve early latency and early exit. The specific manifestation is often high valuation In, sell at a low valuation. In one sentence: grasp the turning point of the industry and obtain excess returns.
(4) Investment in growth stocks: The company's rapid growth is an absolute requirement, and the level of valuation and the sustainability of the company's development can be balanced. If the company's rapid development has good sustainability, a slightly higher valuation is allowed. If the company develops rapidly Continuous uncertainty requires higher valuation rationality. In one sentence: Optimizing the fastest growth, double-clicking on performance valuation.
(5) Investment in White Horse Stocks: With the absolute requirement for the sustainable and rapid development of enterprises, the balance between the level of valuation and the speed of corporate development should be balanced, and attention should be paid to exploring the valuation premium caused by the acceleration of corporate development and the valuation caused by the deceleration of corporate development. Value discount. Summarized in one sentence: reasonable valuation intervention, long-term company development.
(6) Investment in new themes: Taking the sustainability of the development of emerging areas of the company as an absolute requirement, looking for industries that are needed for social development in a few years, without too many requirements on valuation, growth is more focused on revenue growth, because there are only a few Some can achieve real industrialization, pay attention to band profit. Summarize in one sentence: follow the industry trend and cash in the benefits in time.
I also mentioned that a company may initially invest in new themes, then turn into growth stock investment, then invest in white horse stocks, and finally turn to value investment. This is because the company is at different stages of development and in the industry. It is caused by different status.
And the investment model of film stocks itself, in the volatility of the stock price itself, will also derive different catalytic logic.
, for example, investment in new themes is similar to the fermentation and cashing of box office expectations.
, for example, investment in growth stocks, is similar to the acceleration or deceleration of the confirmed profit at the box office. Another example is value investment, which is similar to a company that has matured in the industry and can generate stable cash flow.
Therefore, from the perspective of a movie itself, there are various logics for participation.
And when we participate, we must remember one thing: buy and sell without the influence of other unexpected news, and try to make the same logic as possible.
(3)
In my usual communication, I often get this question:
a. I bought the culture after seeing the wandering earth's box office boom. Now I have set more than 20 points. Do you want to cut meat?
b. I bought the Huayi Brothers because of the better-looking movie of Yao, suddenlyThe file has been withdrawn. Do you want to wait until the release?
c. I bought Chinese films because I was optimistic about the bottoming out of the film industry. The quarterly report data is average. Should I continue to wait? There are many questions about
, my friends, it is difficult for me to answer, because most people care about short-term gains. For example, I said: This logic is gone, why is it still there? So after cutting the meat and stopping the loss the next day, the stock price suddenly pulled by three or five points. It is estimated that this group of friends will have to shoot their thighs and blame me: just listen to you, and rebound as soon as they sell.
...... The movement of
stock price in many cases is not understandable or even without fundamental logic.
For example, a small-cap stock, a newly raised fund that needs to open a position, may be relatively strong in a few days. There is not so much logic behind this, it is only the fund opening a position.
And what we need to control is those that can be expected, can find the logic of the law, and then prepare for the buying and selling operations based on past experience.
Going back to the three questions above, before buying, you should actually think of the conditions for selling.
a. If you consider Beijing culture only after seeing the wandering earth's box office explosion, have you observed the position of stock prices at that time? Then study how much this part of the box office Beijing culture can be divided into, how much actual profit it generates, and when will it be included in the financial statements? If it exceeds the market’s general expectations, then can you consider buying, if you cannot judge, you should decisively withdraw.
b. If you think that Yaobai will become a hit movie, you bought Huayi Brothers before the release, and you have temporarily withdrawn from the summer file, and the official clearly stated that you will withdraw from the summer file, then it means that there is no hope for release in three months , Since short-term box office explosions are not expected, and the new release time is undetermined, what's the point of keeping it?
c. If you are optimistic about the bottoming out of the Chinese film industry, you bought Chinese films, do you know where the main profit source of Chinese films is? Since you are optimistic about the bottoming out of the entire industry, then the quarterly report will fluctuate slightly It's normal to be affected by the movie box office settlement cycle, so why bother?
Speaking of this, it should have been realized that the logic of buying is the best logic of selling. Many friends of
, at first, because they were optimistic about a movie that might hit the market, they went to buy its related companies. Later, the box office of the movie was mediocre and the stock price did not rise, so they continued to wait until the index fell. In the next work, I found that the quarterly report data was not good, so I waited for the entire film industry to reverse, and finally felt that the index should rebound after falling for so long, and it became a wait for the bull market.
This is completely because of the changes in stock prices, so that the logic of their own investment is constantly changing. This is undoubtedly giving the initiative to profit to the uncertain market, which has no meaning.
(4)
From the perspective of stock price volatility, movie releases are accompanied by estimated volatility, which can be described as a five-wave movement , but this five-wave is quite different from the five-waves of our wave theory.
As shown in the figure above, the hype logic of movie stocks is generally expected to be full first, and the stock price is also likely to peak before and after the official release, and then fall sharply. The magnitude of the fall depends on whether the box office is a big hit or not. Look at the quality of the company itself. If all goes well, there may be the remaining two waves of uptrend, otherwise there is no need to think about it.
As shown in the figure above, once the box office falls short of expectations, especially for movies with large investments, the impact on the company is still considerable. This is different from other industries.
Poor sales in some industries means that the company's profits may decline, but as long as the goods can be sold, it means that there is money to be made (except the depreciation of fixed assets is too high), it is nothing more than less. In the film industry, investment is first. Regardless of the final box office, a large amount of production and publicity costs have been used up. Once the box office hits the street, not only will there be no money to make, but the costs will not be recovered, which is a loss. The stock price will continue to fall, falling endlessly. Only then will I sigh, how good it would be to stop the loss earlier!
In view of this characteristic of movie stocks, recommends focusing on the first wave of participating in the five waves of movie stocks, , which is the box office expectations, while ignoring other logical cycles as much as possible. The reason is as follows:
a. Movie box office expectations correspond to stock price fluctuations The biggest, no one can operateAccurate bargain hunting to escape the top, so choose the most volatile rising wave to operate.
b. The benchmarking of film stocks with explosive expectations, the stock price began to rise before the movie was released, so that regardless of the final box office of the movie, it can be cashed before the release to avoid risks.
c. As long as the box office expectations are not fulfilled, the stock price is likely to be extremely flexible. If the stock price falls with the index before the release, it is easy to form a good opportunity for intervention.
If we can clarify the logical thinking of participating in the first wave of film stocks above, we can form a mind map like the following
At this point, the investment/speculation mode of film stocks has been finished, although I did not mention any specific research in this article. And operation, but I should have resolved more than 80% of the invalid communication in the background. I hope that all friends involved in the film stocks should make clear which logic they want to do, instead of asking what to do after buying it. In the actual combat of
in the past few years, there will be some routine events before the movie release, such as early screening, such as scheduling adjustments, which will seriously affect the movie box office and the position of the target stock price. I will be more specific in the next It is explained in the series of articles, so stay tuned!
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Disclaimer The author of
does not hold the stocks mentioned in the article, but plans to buy them.
This article only represents the author's point of view, not the position of Xuanbaobao. Views are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice.
*Disclaimer: The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
*Risk warning: The stock market is risky, so be cautious when entering the market
