Dr. Tao sorted out the clues of this unexplained disease as follows:
first reported the incident on the US health news website STAT website. The website reported on September 9 that the CEO of AstraZeneca stated in a private conference call with investors that the volunteer who caused the suspension of the vaccine was a British woman, and her neurological symptoms were related to a rare and severe myelitis. , Consistent with transverse myelitis. The volunteer's symptoms are improving and are likely to be discharged as early as Wednesday. Confirm that he was vaccinated, not a placebo.
The New York Times broke the news that the volunteer's illness was transverse myelitis. However, STAT senior reporter Adam Feuerstein quoted AstraZeneca’s statement on his personal Twitter, saying:
1's claim that volunteers suffered from transverse myelitis is not accurate. There is currently no final diagnosis and more tests are needed. Make a diagnosis. The test results will be submitted to an independent safety committee, which will review the matter and determine the final diagnosis.
2 The company confirmed that after a volunteer was confirmed to have undiagnosed multiple sclerosis, a safety review was conducted. The trial was temporarily suspended in July. The independent safety committee has concluded that the disease has nothing to do with the vaccine. . The key words of
to refine unexplained diseases are: women, vaccinated, have neurological symptoms, symptoms like transverse myelitis, symptoms can improve and can be discharged; there is another unrelated multiple sclerosis.
In other words, the volunteer disease that caused the suspension of the vaccine trial has not been diagnosed, but the symptoms are like transverse myelitis.
Regarding transverse myelitis, it is generally considered to be a spinal cord dysfunction directly caused by an unexplained infection or induced by an infection, and most of it develops after acute infection or vaccination. Manifested as limb paralysis, sensory loss and bladder, rectum, and autonomic dysfunction. The prognosis is generally good for those who use hormone therapy appropriately and without complications, and most of them can resume walking.
Dr. Tao wants to tell everyone that although transverse myelitis has been mentioned after vaccination, there is a great possibility that the vaccine will actually be in the wrong. The root cause of the disease is not clear, but vaccination is obvious, so the vaccine often becomes a suspect.
So, what kind of evidence can be used to confirm that transverse myelitis is caused by a vaccine? The incidence of vaccinated and unvaccinated patients should be compared.
You must understand one thing: the diagnosis of transverse myelitis does not begin with human vaccination. Even without vaccination, various diseases will have a background incidence of natural incidence in the population.
If the incidence rate after vaccination is not substantially different from the background incidence rate, then the vaccine cannot be considered as causing transverse myelitis. Without comparing the background incidence, the fact that transverse myelitis occurred after vaccination is considered to be caused by the vaccine, which is not scientifically tenable.
If the incidence of transverse myelitis in the vaccinated person is substantially higher than the background incidence, then it can be considered that part of the transverse myelitis is caused by the vaccine, but not all.
For example, the incidence of transverse myelitis among vaccinated patients is 5/100,000, and the background incidence rate is 3/100,000, so it can be considered that only 2/5 (40%) of transverse myelitis occurs after vaccination. It was caused by the vaccine, and the rest was just a coincidence. If it is determined that every transverse myelitis after vaccination is caused by the vaccine, then the probability of the vaccine being wronged is as high as 60%, which greatly overestimates the risk of the vaccine. If the vaccine is stopped or withdrawn from the market because of this overestimation, the loss will be too great.
is still taking the above data hypothesis as an example. One point is very important: for a single vaccine recipient, there is only a 40% chance that the transverse myelitis that occurs in his body is caused by the vaccine. It is unscientific to divide the conclusion into yes or no simply and roughly; if you tell the patient that 40% of your illness may be caused by the vaccine, science is scientific, but how to deal with and compensate for it in the future? How to calculate the incidence of vaccine-induced transverse myelitis? This is also a problem.Dr.
Tao has been engaged in vaccine safety monitoring for many years and has a deep understanding of vaccines. The incidence of transverse myelitis is less than 1/100,000, it is rare to encounter, and the vaccine is wronged. There is also a type of disease called purpura, which is divided into allergic and thrombocytopenic. The cause is also unknown, but it is more common in children, with an incidence rate of 1/10,000, which is more than 10 times that of transverse myelitis. There are no other obvious reasons for children with purpura after vaccination. In this way, the vaccine cannot be ruled out. It is difficult not to buckle this pot on the vaccine head.
Now, there are many so-called adverse vaccine reports on the Internet, many of which have not been diagnosed by experts, and many have been eliminated. Although a small number of experts have diagnosed a vaccine adverse reaction, sympathizing with the weak and asking the government or vaccine manufacturers to pay for the patients is the mainstream guiding ideology, so the vaccine is very likely to be in the dark. With the increase in the number of cases of this kind of vaccine, the former is referred to when dealing with subsequent adverse events of vaccines, which leads to the bigger and bigger problem of vaccines, which eventually penetrates the public's confidence in the safety of vaccines. This embarrassing outcome in history It has happened long ago (the rejection of DTP vaccine in the UK and Japan).
Regarding the suspension of the Oxford vaccine clinical trial, I suggest that you refer to the experience of cervical cancer vaccine and the attitude of the World Health Organization. After the
cervical cancer vaccine is on the market, young women are the main force for vaccination. However, some countries have reported Bell's palsy, Guillain-Barre syndrome (GBS), complex local pain syndrome (CRPS), and postural tachyarrhythmic syndrome (POTS) after vaccination. Because it is difficult to rule out the cause of the vaccine for a while, the cervical cancer vaccine is treated negatively in some countries (especially Japan).
However, the World Health Organization has comprehensively analyzed various aspects of the data and pointed out with confidence in the cervical cancer vaccine position paper (2017 version):
In January 2016, the World Health Organization Global Vaccine Safety Advisory Committee concluded that: The evidence does not indicate that there are any safety issues with the cervical cancer vaccine.
Although it has been confirmed that there have been some new, chronic health problems after vaccination, including autoimmune diseases, a population-based and comprehensive post-marketing safety monitoring shows that there is a gap between cervical cancer vaccines no connection. The
data once again show that the cervical cancer vaccine does not increase the risk of Guillain-Barre syndrome (GBS). A review of post-marketing safety surveillance conducted during the routine use of bivalent vaccines for more than 4 years found that there is no pattern or trend of potential immune-mediated diseases after vaccination, and the incidence of Bell's palsy and confirmed GBS is in the normal population Expected level.
People are worried that vaccination will lead to complex local pain syndrome (CRPS) and postural tachyarrhythmic syndrome (POTS). Although the diagnosis of these two diseases is difficult, there is no evidence that these syndromes are directly caused by the cervical cancer vaccine on the pre-market and post-market data review.
At the same time, China began to use cervical cancer vaccine at the end of 2017. As of the end of August this year, 26.48 million doses have been on the market. The actual vaccination is estimated to exceed 15 million doses.
According to the latest vaccine safety monitoring report of the China Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in 2018, the safety data of cervical cancer vaccines are as follows:
2 vaccine reported 650,000 doses, 3 serious adverse events, one of which was GBS
4 vaccine report vaccination 277 Ten thousand doses, 11 serious adverse events, of which 2 were GBS
9-valent vaccines, 5 serious adverse events were reported, and the background incidence rate without GBS
GBS was 0.81~1.89 per 100,000 people per year (http://t.cn/A6495cZm) It is visually estimated that the GBS report rate of cervical cancer vaccine in China in 2018 is much lower than its background incidence rate. Therefore, the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention did not discuss these GBS incidents, nor did it mention CRPS and POTS reports. It can be seen that the safety of cervical cancer vaccine is indeed as reliable as the World Health Organization insists.
Looking back at the Oxford vaccine suspension event, Dr. Tao feels that the encounter with the cervical cancer vaccine is essentially the same. Based on Dr. Tao’s years of experience in vaccine safety monitoring, I am 99% confident that there is no evidence that this “unexplained disease” is related to the COVID-19 vaccine.There is a causal relationship.
