The ranking of investment banks, which has been basically settled for many years, is facing the possibility of being overturned. Once upon a time, "Three China and One China" was the code name for China's top four investment banks. The top ten rankings that once included Guangfa,

The ranking of investment banks, which has been basically settled for many years, is facing the possibility of being overturned.

Once upon a time, "Three Middle Ones and One China" was the code name for China's top four investment banks.

once included Guangfa, Guojun, Haitong, Guosen, Everbright, Oriental, etc. in the top ten rankings, which were all unchallenged.

but look at it.

has experienced the vigorous rise of new institutions in the past few years. The old institutions have their own "household affairs", and only "half" of the order of securities firms and investment banking businesses has been washed away.

But now, maybe this "half" ranking will be shaken.

According to Shishido’s inventory of the investment banking businesses of various securities firms, the first half of 2024 may be the half-year period in which well-known large securities firms have been “replaced” the most in recent years.

Moreover, it is conceivable that as industry integration accelerates in the future, this "subversion" trend will probably continue.

Even if it is "three middle and one China", if it slacks off a little bit, I am afraid it will be easily subverted.

"Three Middle Schools and One China": Ready to be subverted at any time?

CITIC Securities , CICC , CITIC Construction Investment , Huatai Securities (known in the industry as "three in one"). These four securities firms were once regarded by financial people as the "top" of investment banks. It is the “dream investment bank” that many graduates yearn for.

But now this landscape has undergone subtle changes.

First of all, the rankings of Three Middle Schools and One China and other institutions are quickly approaching each other. Not to mention

, , Guotai Junan, have already been inserted into the four institutions (based on underwriting income ranking, picture below, statistical source: wind.)

is closely followed by Haitong and Dongfang.

Even Zhongtai Securities and Guojin Securities , which were "recuperating" in the past few years, are also coming out.

The order of the entire underwriting market has been almost overturned by half compared to 2023.

Neck brokers also quickly shuffled

If the top five in the industry are regarded as head agencies, then five to fifteen are neck agencies. The changes in

are even greater.

As mentioned above, Orient Securities , Zhongtai Securities, and Guojin Securities performed relatively well in the first half of 2024, and their industry rankings improved rapidly.

In particular, Zhongtai, Guojin and Everbright , the net underwriting income (contribution of investment banking business) of the three securities firms has accounted for 10% of the company's total revenue.

In particular, China International Finance Securities, accounting for as high as 17%, ranks first among the top ten leading institutions in investment banking business.

CICC, an investment bank that is highly anticipated by the industry, ranks second, accounting for more than 14 percentage points.

Looking back, there are still some institutions in the industry that account for a relatively high proportion of underwriting revenue.

Tianfeng Securities topped the list with 44% of underwriting revenue.

In addition, Huajin Securities, Minsheng Securities, Donghai Securities and Kaiyuan Securities , and all accounted for more than 20%.

There are already "signs" of ranking subversion

If we look back at history and the top ten rankings of securities underwriting from 2020 to 2023, we can even find that the names of some established institutions are rapidly moving back (picture below).

In the above four years, only CITIC Securities, CITIC Construction Investment and CICC were at the forefront of the industry's investment banking business.

At the same time, Haitong, Guotai Junan, and Huatai Securities are the top ten regulars, and the others are all "passers-by".

This competitive situation has undergone subtle changes in the first half of 2024: Guotai Junan "breaks into" the top three, while CITIC Construction Investment is temporarily "squeezed out" of the top three.

The sequence at the top is shuffled?

The trend of you going up and me going down is clear

From an institutional perspective, the trend of you going up and me going down is even clearer among this kind of institutions (picture below).

The segmented business is also "evolving"

html The number of IPOs launched within 9 years, CITIC, CITIC Construction Investment and Guotai Junan are all 7, tied for the first place in the industry.

It is worth noting that Haitong and Minsheng have each completed 6 IPO projects, while Huatai and CICC have "only" 5 and 4 respectively.

Among the additional issuance projects, CITIC Securities is far ahead of other peers with 16.

Compare the data in the first half of 2023 (above): CITIC, CITIC Construction Investment and Haitong each completed IPO projects of 23, 18 and 11 companies.

Equity financing has entered a "low temperature period"

An important reason for the fluctuation of investment bank rankings is the reduction in the number and scale of financiers.

In the first half of 2024, the scale of initial stock issuance in the A-share market was RMB 172.973 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 73.90%. The number and issuance scale of

a-share IPO companies have both declined. A total of 44 companies in the market have completed IPOs, a year-on-year decrease of 74.57%. The financing amount of

companies in the entire market has decreased by 84.50% year-on-year. The scale of refinancing issuance of

also declined, by nearly 70%.

For the time being, the equity financing market has entered a "low temperature zone."

This may be a test for all participating institutions, and there is currently a trend of concentration in market share. (cr5 and cr10 are obviously on the rise)

has a "smell of gunpowder" behind it

But when the popularity of the industry declines and the integration of leading brokerage firms continues, the changes in order bring a bit of the "smell of gunpowder" of competition.

On the one hand, various institutions are actively "streamlining and slimming down", and "expanding plans" with different strategies may bring about completely different combat effectiveness.

On the other hand, when an organization begins to integrate more and collaborate, changes in its core team will also bring about very significant ups and downs in business performance.

Furthermore, after the integration in the future, where the incentive mechanisms of each company will change is also attracting attention and curiosity.