In the past two years, the performance market has become unprecedentedly popular. The chain reaction of consumption caused by concerts is attracting more and more attention.
The "2023 National Performance Market Development Brief" (hereinafter referred to as the "Brief") released by the China Performance Industry Association shows that the overall economic scale of the national performance market in 2023 will be 73.994 billion yuan, an increase of 29.30% compared with the same period in 2019, reaching a record high .
In addition, according to standard statistics excluding rural performances and entertainment venue performances, the number of performances nationwide in 2023 will reach 440,600, an increase of 123.55% compared with the same period in 2019; box office revenue is 50.232 billion yuan, an increase of 150.65% compared with the same period in 2019 ; The number of viewers was 171.1364 million, an increase of 83.01% compared with the same period in 2019. (The performances mentioned in this article include concerts, music festivals and other different forms - Editor's note.)
concerts have also become one of the new focuses of the city's cultural and tourism bureau. Not long ago, Hua Chenyu held a concert in Yantai, and there was a saying that the concert promoted a city. The video copy issued by the Yantai Culture and Tourism Bureau is "Come to Yantai and watch the sunrise with Hua Chenyu."
While fans spend freely and cheer for celebrities and idols, some controversial phenomena also frequently appear. Some concerts are sold out in seconds, and scalpers are charging sky-high ticket prices; many concerts are frequently canceled temporarily due to "force majeure"; some concerts have become hot searches due to low attendance, pillar tickets, etc.; some even music Due to the poor on-site experience, the audience called for refunds and so on.
Between popularity and controversy, which one is the true face of the concert economy? What is the true temperature of the market?
Scammers, capital and traffic
After more than ten years of experience in concerts and music festivals, Zhou Yue has seen too many scammers.
The performance industry has been a mixed bag in the past two years, and a very interesting scam he knew about was probably about Avril Lavigne. At the beginning of 2020, after Avril Lavigne canceled 12 tours in Asia due to the epidemic, in 2023 some entertainment companies began planning to invite Avril Lavigne to hold concerts in China. During this process, a company claiming to be a ministry-affiliated company defrauded millions of dollars and then ran away, causing Avril Lavigne to directly cancel all China-related work.
As of this year, although the Chinese company is still continuing cooperation negotiations with Avril Lavigne, due to various internal and external factors, both China and the United States are very cautious, resulting in the delay in the implementation of the project. Coincidentally, the well-known music festival Taihu Bay Music Festival also encountered a similar thing when it invited another band. The
performance market continues to be hot, allowing countless people and money to pour into it. On one side, there are those who lack knowledge about the performance industry, and on the other side, there are many people of all kinds who want to fish in troubled waters. The most ridiculous thing is that some people even go to Xiaohongshu to look for posts that claim they can get resources from Jay Chou and Stefanie Sun and ask for capital verification, looking for contacts and cooperation.
"Many industries are in recession, and there is no way out for big money. Concerts are a very good way to consume big money." As the co-founder of a performance company, Zhou Yue deeply understands that in such a highly resource-intensive industry as concerts, , how easy it is for new entrants to make money. First of all, the artists who make money will definitely not be able to turn to newcomers, because behind them are the social relationships accumulated over the years, and they all have very stable partners. New entrants need to have a basic judgment on non-leading artists. There will definitely be losses in this process, it depends on whether the team can survive it.
What if the newbie is lucky and wins the bet, will everything be smooth sailing? That's not necessarily a good thing either. This is because this will unbalance the team's judgment standards. Once a gamble fails, the next fall may be even worse.
However, this does not mean that the concert business model is a mystery.
As a non-rigid demand industry, the performance company's ability to judge artists determines whether a concert can make money.The more complete information the performing arts company can collect about the artist's reputation, traffic, performance status, on-site capabilities, and even the cooperation level of the artist's support team, the greater the certainty of the success of the performance.
But there is also an element of gambling. Some people bet on the flow of artists, while others bet on the emotional attributes of artists. Each executive team has its own set of standards for considering artists. Because of this, in today's booming market environment, some people make money and some lose money.
Someone made the right bet. Phoenix Legend, Wu Bai, Zhang Xinzhe, Chen Chusheng, Wang Yuan... these artists who were originally underestimated in the performance market are now rising all the way.
But if we say that the success of these artists' concerts is all due to gambling luck, it is not the whole story.
Most of these veteran artists who have become famous in the concert market have maintained excellent performance capabilities for a long time. From singing skills, stage performance to interaction with the audience, they are all very exciting.
At the same time, the operational capabilities of the organizer are also particularly critical. Some organizers have an in-depth understanding and analysis of the artist's audience, and some organizers work closely with the artist's fan club. Under such circumstances, even if the artist does not "break out" on the traffic side, it can only be judged from the profitability of the project itself. Look, it is often very stable.
In the final analysis, the understanding and operational capabilities of the consumer side of the current performance market are still fundamental. It is even more important to understand the pulse of consumer groups.
For example, judging from the stars who have recently held concerts and become popular, it seems that today's performance market has a strong retro tendency, and a large number of millennial singers have become mainstream today. But in fact, in today's performance market, the mainstream consumer group is not the post-80s generation who have more spending power but are relatively conservative, but the post-90s white-collar elite, and the post-00s generation who "have no money but are willing to spend their parents' money."
Among them, the proportion of female consumers who are more willing to pay for emotional value has reached more than 70%.
In contrast, although the post-80s generation, who have greater life pressure and are careful about their budget, are generally richer, they tend to be more conservative in their concert consumption. For many male consumers born in the 1980s, no matter how charming Andy Lau and Jay Chou are, when faced with sky-high prices for concert tickets, they would rather turn on the car stereo and listen to them all night.
Controversies, Collisions and Challenges
Compared with the continued popularity of concerts, starting from this year, the popularity of music festivals began to gradually return to rationality.
Wang Ze’s busiest time was from last year to the beginning of this year. From the beginning of the epidemic to May last year, as the project operations director of the Modern Sky Music Festival, he had launched more than a dozen music festivals across the country, and each one was large in scale. There were countless inquiries and invitations during the same period.
But before 2019, the music festival market was not like this. In the past, music festivals, as imported products, were not even considered a mass consumer product, and were often targeted at consumer groups who preferred niche music.
The first season of "Summer of the Band" aired in 2019 seemed to break the barriers of "niche music" and bring a group of independent bands into the public eye. Subsequently, the music festival, as a platform for bands and independent music, gradually became popular among consumers and became a popular cultural consumption product.
According to data from the "China Music Festival Market Development Research Report 2020-2024" by Xiaolujiao Think Tank, the highest record of music festivals before the epidemic was 269 in 2017. During the epidemic, 191 music festivals were held in 2021. But by 2023, excluding postponed/cancelled music festivals, the number of actual music festivals will reach 560, with an astonishing growth rate. This has set a record in the history of the music festival market.
Among them, Modern Sky, which holds the head ip Strawberry Music Festival and the new ip m_dsk Music Festival, set a record high in 2023 by "launching/hosting 24 music festivals, with nearly 700,000 offline audiences" .
The booming music festival market has also become an important driver of local tourism economic development.Data from Xiaolujiao Think Tank shows that there are more than 100 music festivals invested/led/partially funded by local governments, cultural tourism groups and urban investment companies, and all market-oriented music festivals have received strong support from local governments. China's music festival market is still in the development stage, and it has become the norm for government-led, cultural and tourism pioneers to jointly organize with market-oriented companies.
However, if the market temperature is too high, it is easy to breed hidden dangers. Many local government music festival needs are often met through cultural companies that cooperate with local governments all year round. Some companies think that the music festival looks relatively simple, so they choose to manage it themselves. It is precisely because of this that last year's high-volume music festival brought a lot of problems and controversy.
Because of this, the music festival market has shown signs of slowing down since the first half of this year.
As early as September 12, 2023, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism and the Ministry of Public Security jointly issued the "Notice on Further Strengthening the Standardized Management of Large-scale Commercial Performance Activities and Promoting the Healthy and Orderly Development of the Performance Market". The "Notice" requires strict Approval management. Provincial cultural and tourism administrative departments and local public security organs carry out risk assessments, and when performance organizers carry out risk self-assessments, they should include online popularity, public opinion reactions, netizen evaluations and other network characteristics into the assessment scope, and establish a comprehensive online and offline risk assessment system.
At the beginning of this year, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the State Supervision Commission issued the "Work Tips on Resolutely Correcting the Problems of "New Image Projects" at Some Local Grassroots Levels." Among the "new image project" issues mentioned as key prevention and correction issues, the issue of luxurious "festivals" is included. In order to pursue "popularity" one-sidedly, they follow the trend and organize music festivals, forums named after cities, tourism development conferences, etc. regardless of cost, and pay high fees for venue construction and band appearances.
Under the kind invitation of the local government, Wang Zehe and his team inspected many venues. Although the hardware conditions of some places were OK, their transportation network and reception capacity were very limited; some places could not even provide accommodation for more than 2,000 people. Support...
Although the market popularity has waned due to repeated collisions, the reputation of the music festival is still firmly established.
In 2024, in just over two months, more than 50 music festivals have been officially announced, and Modern Sky has officially announced a 10-city plan. The competition in the first half of 2024 is expected to be even more fierce than in 2023. In the first half of this year, more third- and fourth-tier cities in East and South China are expected to have plans to hold music festivals.
However, for a product that has always been centered on niche independent music, the expansion of the crowd also means greater challenges.
is different from the music "festivals" in the past that were centered on gathering, relaxation, carnival and catharsis. Nowadays, the entertainment characteristics of music festivals have become increasingly stronger, the proportion of "music" has declined, and the "festival" attribute has become more significant. In 2021 Guyu data In the survey, the most attractive option for young people in outdoor music festivals was "feeling the carnival atmosphere of live music", which was much higher than the second place "having a favorite singer/band".
At the same time, the composition of the audience has become increasingly diverse. Star-chasing fans, fashionistas, and first-time viewers. The different viewing habits of different groups of people have brought all kinds of conceptual conflicts and spats to the music festival.
Some star-chasing fans want to be closer to their idols and like to stand in the front row; but some music fans feel that they are "forbidden to stand."
Some music fans like to "drive a train" when they are deeply in love, singing and dancing in a circle; but some fashion trendsetters and star-chasing fans resent being bumped or stepped on, which affects their viewing experience. ...
Some consumers who bought VIP tickets complained because the festival did not provide seats; some audiences were unable to get used to the open-air environment of the concert venue and ruined their shoes/clothes.
Cold smoking is prohibited, water is not allowed to be brought into the venue, and the walking distance to and from the venue is too long... These standard large-scale management rules can even arouse resentment and doubts from many viewers. A rule often cannot be explained three or four times. It is understood that this has caused a headache for many music festival organizers.
“They may not want to understand, they mostly think of themselves as consumers."These audiences who maintain a "consumer" mentality often find it difficult to maintain an open and inclusive attitude towards various types of musicians and music festivals. Facing these increasingly diverse audiences, Wang Ze suggested that all types of audiences adapt to each other, And learn to have fun at the music festival.
The water is overflowing
Although the performance market last year was extremely noisy, Zhou Yue predicts that this year's concert may usher in a real "fight of gods"
China's 2024. The Mainland Tour Concert will be held in 8 cities including Shanghai, Guangzhou, Beijing, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Shenzhen and Chongqing from July to September; Jacky Cheung’s 60+ Tour Concert will go all the way from Hong Kong to Zhengzhou...
“In fact, many heavyweight artists did not start official tours last year. Artists like Andy Lau and Jacky Cheung, whose ticket prices can be sold for more than 10 times in the scalper market, have mostly just started this year. "In Zhou Yue's view, the main body of the concert market last year was still domestic artists. This year, more overseas artists will enter the venue, which will make the entire performance market hotter. The hot market has also further increased the overall cost.
is rising. It is common for the brokerage company to propose some price adjustments. Take Wu Bai's concert project as an example. There is a huge gap between the quotation just after the epidemic and this year's quotation. According to Zhou Yue's estimate, the organizer's income is probably only the brokerage. About 1/10 of the company's revenue.
However, there are always a small number of singers with traffic and earning power, so artists will continue to revise their value in the market. The reality is that even if some singers increase their prices, the organizer will not do so. Even if you want to pay, you may not be able to get cooperation opportunities.
“The game in the capital market has always been very bloody. The leader always makes money and has the bargaining power. "But this has also led to the gradual deformation of the market. Zhou Yue understands that for artists who have been "starved" by the epidemic for three years, the past concerts did not have such high popularity and strong social attributes, and the concerts were not a special one. It's an easy money-making business. Except for top artists, most artists' concerts make money and lose money.
But in today's increasingly hot market environment, artists and agencies have more bargaining chips. Obviously. I hope to gain greater profits.
However, as the market continues to rise, consumers still have to pay for the high costs. Zhou Yue feels that the cost of artists is a bit too high now, and many organizers have no choice but to give up this concert. It has become a scalper's carnival, and the cost caused by this excessive premium will eventually be paid by music fans, ultimately limiting the continued prosperity of the entire market.
Today, the actual average transaction price of Jay Chou's concert tickets in the scalper market is more than 4,000 yuan. Some people are willing to spend 100,000 yuan to buy a first-row ticket to Jay Chou's concert. In the scalper market, front-row tickets for all Andy Lau's performances start at tens of thousands of yuan.
This is also a status symbol for many well-known singers. At the concert, a large number of high-priced top spots are occupied by wealthy people and Internet celebrities. They may not really like the singer, but they need to post on Moments and shoot videos.
It is difficult to get a vote for the top artist. , will lead to the continued entry of more heavyweight artists, followed by a gradual decline in the popularity of mid-range artists. Once the craze passes, the market size will return to normal. Under the existing market size, if Without the support of traffic or capital to become popular, they still have to face market choices.
But top artists are not able to sit back and relax. Concerts are a "physical job" that requires a lot of physical and mental energy from the singer. "Once the physical condition cannot keep up, overturning is inevitable.
html On May 25, due to vocal cord problems, singer Eason Chan tearfully announced at the concert that the two concerts originally scheduled to be held in Hangzhou, Zhejiang on the 25th and 26th would be postponed. It will be held on the 27th and 28th. On the afternoon of May 26, the official said that the concert would not be postponed but canceled and would be held at a later date. html On June 10, singer Eason Chan unfortunately suffered a heat stroke and fainted while playing tennis outdoors. The six Foshan concerts in mid-July have been postponed to January 2025.The "Mayday Shanghai Concert Lip-syncing Controversy" that occurred in December last year pushed this issue to the forefront of public opinion. Although the incident ended with the Shanghai Culture and Tourism Bureau’s response that no illegal behavior was found. The
music festival market faces similar problems.
As the market returns to rationality, music festival organizers need to continue to upgrade in terms of artist lineup, on-site experience, ultimate cost-effectiveness and efficient publicity strategies to cope with the new round of market reshuffle.
The first thing to bear the brunt is the rising cost. Data shows that the starting amount of investment in music festivals has skyrocketed from 5 million. By 2023, the investment cost of a three-day comprehensive outdoor music festival has been pushed to more than 30 million yuan.
The mismatch between costs and sales has also led to the postponement and cancellation of a large number of music festivals. According to statistics from the Little Antlers think tank, as many as 91 music festivals have been postponed/cancelled in 2023. Especially in the second half of the year, a total of 65 music festivals were postponed/cancelled, causing many organizers to suffer heavy losses.
"This is actually a signal that the popularity is waning and the risks are increasing." According to Wang Ze's understanding, the real reason for the cancellation of many music festivals is that the sales situation is extremely pessimistic, and the implementation of the project will only lead to greater losses. This is no longer just a matter of content and operational capabilities. With the saturated supply of several music festival projects within a 300-kilometer radius, it is difficult to make a profit no matter how good the artist lineup and on-site experience are. "After a period of blindfolded running, everyone should calm down."
Return to common sense
After experiencing the roller coaster-like market ups and downs, Wang Ze is now more conservative in his strategic choices for the implementation of music festival projects.
First of all, the total population is a basic measurement indicator. Generally speaking, provincial capital cities with a population of 8 to 10 million are a safer choice. But now, the markets in most provincial capital cities have been developed, and it has become a better choice to improve the cities that have been covered.
The second step is to improve the content level of the music festival. Especially for an established leading IP such as Strawberry Music Festival, it is even more necessary to let the product speak for itself. After all, the ticket price of a music festival is highly related to the quality of performances. Only by allowing more fresh and capable musicians to join can it naturally drive long-term revenue growth.
In addition, we need to find more venues with distinctive landforms, explore the unique tourism attributes of the place, create some scenes that are different from traditional urban music festivals, bring more special on-site experiences to the audience, and enhance the quality of the music festival site. Secondary consumption has become the development goal of Wang Zehe’s team in the next stage.
After experiencing explosive growth last year, Zhou Yue is obviously not so busy this year.
The concert industry is still relatively closed, and not any company can make money by entering. However, in an industry cycle that continues to surge, the concert business, which is more flexible in size and has a simpler revenue structure, still has many opportunities to seize. Especially in terms of the selection of artists, there are more opportunities. In addition, active artists in variety shows, online platforms, and two-dimensional communities will have the opportunity to form performance products. There are also more ideas for the selection of concert products, especially the development of more diversified vertical performance product IPs for segmented groups, which will have the opportunity to improve the audience's overall experience level of concert products.
From three years of suspension to rapid recovery, the performance market is returning to common sense after experiencing huge shocks.
"Consumers who have calmed down have begun to become more picky and cautious, and the market is more willing to reward products with excellent basic skills." In the view of Zhang Lin, managing director of cmc, as a high-priced, non-rigidly needed product, it can only provide consumers with Only by providing players with the feeling of "worth the price" can they have the strength to stay at the poker table in this era of insufficient consumption power.
From the perspective of urban management, how can we make good use of performance products with high investment and high supporting needs, and effectively absorb the flow of people brought by concerts or music festivals through high-quality urban infrastructure construction, and provide more It is a new exploration and test to drive more consumption decision-making and make real contributions to the local economy. (This article was first published on Titanium Media app, author｜Xie Xuan, editor｜Fang Yu)
