Text | Duyu, Author | Zero One The 2024 Mid-Autumn Festival movie box office is 389 million yuan, and the domestic films "Wild Child", "Avenging Shame", "Determination to Run Away" and "I Wish You Happiness!" ""Rebirth" ranks among the top five at the box office during the period

text | Duyu, author | Zero One

The box office of the Mid-Autumn Festival movie in 2024 was 389 million yuan, and the domestic films " Wild Child ", " A Shame on ", " Determination to Run away " and " I Wish You Happiness!" " and " reborn as " ranked among the top five box office releases during the period. Excluding 2023 and other years that overlap with the National Day period, the years that are suitable for comparison with this year's Mid-Autumn Festival in recent years are 2021, 2019 and 2018. In these four years, the Mid-Autumn Festival dates are close and the number of days is the same, with 499 million yuan and 803 million yuan respectively. Yuan, 531 million yuan, the box office performance of the Mid-Autumn Festival in 2024 is low among the Mid-Autumn Festival in previous years.

In addition to the low total box office data, the low attendance rate has even made the film industry shudder. The total number of screenings during the Mid-Autumn Festival in 2024 hit a record high, reaching 1.356 million, while the total number of moviegoers was only 9.57 million, almost at the bottom level in the past decade.

Ten years ago, the 2014 Mid-Autumn Festival had a box office of 385 million yuan, which was basically the same as this year. However, the number of moviegoers reached 11.393 million, but the total number of screenings was only 345,000. In other words, the movies made ten years ago by The market only needs a quarter of today's shows to achieve the same box office total, which shows that the current situation is relatively bad.

In the upcoming National Day releases, "Volunteers: Battle of Life and Death", "Safety of Access", "Breaking Good Guys", "749 Bureau", "Crisis Route", "Road to Fire", "Only Green", "Panda Project" and "New Big Head Son Little Head Dad 6: Mini Adventure" and many other films are scheduled to be released. Will the film industry bottom out here?

It is always good for us to discuss more about the current situation and future of the film industry and to inspire others.

The schedule effect and emotional movies are gradually failing.

The film industry has worked hard for the Mid-Autumn Festival. This year's Mid-Autumn Festival has a total of 21 films released, including "The Wandering Earth 2" and other re-released films. Even if you put aside the make-up films, there are quite a number of films in the schedule. However, the actual situation shows that on the one hand, the number of movies does not equal the effective supply. On the other hand, it is increasingly obvious that movies are taking a back seat in mass entertainment content consumption. The successive losses are not just a matter of movie reputation and quality. But it simply cannot attract more people. Many people would rather play with their mobile phones or stroll around casually than pay for a ticket to a movie.

You must know that the 2022 Mid-Autumn Festival " brother, hello " Douban only scored 4.8 points and can also win a cumulative box office of 500 million +. In comparison, this year's movies not only have well-known stars and unique features like "Wild Child" At the top of the genre, there are also high-scoring masterpieces such as "The Determination to Run Away" and "The Sinking of the Lisbon Maru", and the overall reputation is very high; if there is no leader in the waist, then there are many "Zhu Xian" and "Peak Explosion" in the Mid-Autumn Festival in the past. The quality of "Hello, Brother" is not outstanding, and waist-level films have earned hundreds of millions in box office.

The same waist-level movies can no longer guarantee the box office of holiday schedules as they did in the past. The holiday schedule effect of movies seems to be declining . The weight of an ordinary movie as a mass entertainment option is becoming less and less of a priority in the holiday market as it used to be. .

Not only that, the top four box office hits in this year's Mid-Autumn Festival are "Wild Child", "Determination to Run Away" and "Wish You Happiness!" " are relatively typical realistic emotional films, all of which strive to achieve emotional resonance with the audience. Their reputation is also first-rate, but their box office results are average, and they have no market advantage compared to films of the same type in the past.

This also means that "public sentiment", a "keyword" summarized by the industry in recent years, is failing. Looking forward, films focusing on social topics and public sentiment such as " Retrograde Life " and " Laifu Hotel " are far less than expected, pointing to the same result.

"Emotional movies" are becoming more and more difficult to succeed. This does not mean the failure of this type of track, but that the current social media public opinion and public sentiment have become increasingly difficult to unify, so it is increasingly difficult to be attracted by a certain movie. What is truly expressed is in place. So we can see not only movies such as "Retrograde Life" and "Rafford Hotel" that were originally aiming for high box office but failed at the box office, but also seemingly niche movies such as "Grandma's Grandson" and "The Sinking of the Lisbon Maru" The box office exceeded expectations - it's not that drama films and high-scoring films in the traditional sense can no longer impress people, but can only impress a more limited number of people than in the past.

It is not impossible to try to leverage public sentiment with a low-cost feature film, but the probability will become lower and lower, because it is becoming increasingly difficult to find the "greatest common denominator" of this kind of emotion. It would be better for films like to return to low cost, control investment, and strive to produce a quality product like "Determination to Run Away". The industry should not place too high market expectations on these films.

Drawing inspiration: Returning to entertainment, re-pricing

The challenges facing the industry, Director Mao Yu’s speech at the "Seventh China Film New Power Forum" is actually very clear:

"The number of moviegoers in China is still decreasing, young people The problem of audiences being alienated from theaters has not been effectively changed. The film industry must be clearly aware that today’s film competition is not a competition between film companies, but a competition between film companies, but about mutual encouragement and mutual unity to cooperate with short videos, online games, online live broadcasts, etc. Competing with various forms of entertainment such as vertical screen dramas and virtual reality cultural tourism experiences, how can people still think about the beauty of movies while enjoying the joy of traveling, enjoying the scenery and enjoying late-night snacks with friends?

We also need to know that Chinese movies The development environment of the film industry is becoming increasingly complex, and the influence of online public opinion on movies is intensifying. In the era of self-media, it is becoming more and more obvious that there are a thousand Hamlets for every one thousand viewers. The emotional expression of film reviews is more sharp and sharp, and we need more. To make a movie that can withstand the scrutiny of thousands of eyes, we need to respect the voice of the audience and treat the audience’s feelings calmly, rationally and equally.”

So what should we do? In terms of attracting attention, the first direction is obviously to return to the creative side, starting from the creative concept to rethink the changes in public demand, and then establish the changes in the new commercial film creation concept; the second is the iteration and elimination of the theater side operations, and the industry should jointly promote ticket prices To significantly reduce the cost, theaters must also focus on service and equipment maintenance to truly provide audiences with a viewing experience that cannot be replaced by streaming media and short videos.

Let’s look back at the movies whose box office performance has been significantly higher than expected since 2024 - "Silent Kill", "", " Alien: Death Ship", among which there are violent, bloody and criminal scenes. Bai, there is the rare spectacle of group annihilation of a cult presented in "The Three Evils", and there are also horror elements such as "Alien: Death Ship" which are purely European and American restricted-rated films. The common feature of is the spectacle and stimulation of the plot. , the sensory stimulation of audio-visual performance is greatly enhanced.

And the summer comedy king bombed "Catch a Baby", the monster special effects film "Godzilla vs. Kong 2" which was close to 1 billion, and the May Day exceeded expectations "Thelma and Louise" and "Kowloon Walled City", whether it is comedy or other Type, the common feature of these backbones in the movie market after the 2024 Spring Festival is that is enough to be "entertaining" . The innovative attempts in genre films such as "Decryption" and "Under the Stranger" in the summer season have not been effective. The innovative behavior itself deserves recognition, but so far there has not been one that can really catch up with the audience, and the entertainment is not enough.

I personally believe that the focus of commercial movies is to regain the effectiveness and irreplaceability of the "entertainment" of the movie itself. The film industry now has to compete with a variety of entertainment forms such as short videos, online games, online live broadcasts, vertical screen dramas, virtual reality cultural and travel experiences, etc. So what is the core value of theater movies as entertainment content? The answer to this question is definitely different than it was ten years ago.

We cannot draw a summary conclusion here, but we can raise some specific topics for discussion: Is there a part of the movie that is just to provide the audience with an unforgettable experience, rather than always trying to educate the public? Can a movie, like "Black Myth: Wukong", deconstruct traditional cultural riches from a new perspective? Why are there so few successful IPs for domestic films? What problems should be solved if IPs lack the ability to continuously output high-quality content? Are the boundaries of film subject creation clear enough to allow film capital and creators to dare to make diverse attempts?

In addition to the content creation perspective, the ticket price is also 30 or 40 yuan. In an era when entertainment content was scarce more than ten years ago, the theater experience was unique in comparison, but now there are endless short videos on mobile phones. For videos, there are also video platforms where members can watch movies for free for 15 yuan/month. Most of the movies in domestic theaters are available on streaming media within a month of their release. Under such circumstances, the audience is required to pay another 40 yuan for a ticket and spend two hours. Does this mean that the consumption expectations are completely different from those in the past?

There will be more and more original movie consumer groups who think that can buy two tickets for 90 yuan for a half-year membership, so it is better to wait for a few months to watch the video platform for free.

But the reality is that the average ticket price for the Mid-Autumn Festival in 2019 was 33.8 yuan, and the Mid-Autumn Festival in 2023 and 2024 will be upwards of 40 yuan. Is the economic environment this year much better than in 2019? As movies face increasingly fierce competition from diversified entertainment, the appeal of movies themselves is declining, ticket prices are rising, and the box office market is stagnant. Such contrarian pricing will definitely be a vicious cycle, which will eventually make movies Consumption is becoming more and more niche and anti-daily, and there are increasingly few places to buy it except during popular festivals.

Therefore, it is extremely important for theaters to lower the threshold for movie viewing and improve theater services. It is necessary to strengthen the operation of surrounding movie viewing users, instead of just lying around and waiting for big price increases during holidays.

believes that the confusion in the film market is temporary, and looks forward to seeing the resilience and more surprises of Chinese films in the near future.