Text by Luo Yi
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The forefront of consumption (xiaofeizqx)
While the industry generally lamented that Pinduoduo’s market value is about to surpass Alibaba, news about Jack Ma’s entry into prepared dishes has also been spread.
also led to the overall rise of the A-share prepared vegetable concept sector, with a net inflow of 459 million yuan. Among them, China United Aquatic Products rose 14.35%, Huifa Food hit the daily limit, and stocks such as Dahu Shares, Chunxue Food, Quanjude, and Wei Zhixiang followed suit.
However, this incident was quickly refuted by Jack Ma’s former assistant in WeChat Moments, saying that Ma’s kitchen does not make pre-made dishes. According to industrial and commercial information, Majia Kitchen’s business scope includes food sales, import and export of goods, wholesale of edible agricultural products, wholesale of daily necessities, hotel management, technical services, etc.
But in the entire restaurant market, besides prepared dishes, is there anything else to look forward to? Data from the National Bureau of Statistics revealed that the national catering revenue in 2022 was 4,394.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.3%; the catering revenue above designated size was 1,065 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.9%. In the first 10 months of this year, despite the recovery of market conditions, national catering revenue was 4.1905 billion yuan, but the year-on-year increase was still less than 20%.
Looking at prepared dishes, as of the end of December 2022, my country's prepared dish-related brand products have completed a total of 31 financings throughout the year, with a total disclosed financing amount of more than 700 million yuan. It is estimated that in the next 3-5 years, the scale of China's prepared vegetable market is expected to increase year by year at a high growth rate of about 20%.
Everyone in the catering market is making prepared dishes, perhaps because they have long been disappointed with other fields.
Jack Ma has a “catering dream”
In fact, Jack Ma has always had a “catering dream”.
For example, Hema Xiansheng is the first catering store opened by Alibaba. However, unlike traditional restaurants, Hema’s model is convenience supermarket + catering. Previously, Hema also independently spun off the breakfast store "Hexiao" horse". Hema was once hailed as Alibaba's biological son. In the early years, Hema was nicknamed "the second Tmall" within Alibaba.
And Jack Ma is once again involved in catering, and it is only natural for outsiders to think of pre-made dishes. On the one hand, this trillion-dollar market is indeed attractive. Since last year, Alibaba, Meituan, JD.com, Gree, SF Express, and even Guirenniao and Semir have all announced their entry into prepared dishes. On the other hand, Hema is also very enthusiastic about prepared dishes.
Previously, Guolian Aquatic Products announced that it had signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Hema to establish a long-term and stable cooperative relationship on product development and supply and other cooperation matters, in principle for no less than 3 years. Starting in 2024, Hema will purchase 500 million yuan of prepared vegetable products from Guolian Aquatic Products every year. Since
announced his retirement, it is not difficult to see from Jack Ma's itinerary in the past few years that his interest in the catering market has increased instead of declining. Last year, Jack Ma visited the Netherlands to exchange new technologies in animal husbandry and aquaculture. In the same year, he visited the Aquaculture Research Institute in Japan. This year, Jack Ma visited CP Group.
In terms of industrial and commercial enterprises, as early as 2020, a company owned by Jack Ma invested in the establishment of "Genghai Muyang"; in November 2021, Hangzhou Yunqi Catering Management Co., Ltd. owned by Jack Ma was established; in addition, Yimiba Food Technology (Zhejiang) Co., Ltd. and Yimiba Marine Technology (Zhejiang) Co., Ltd. are both newly established agricultural and food-related companies.
Now, there is another Ma’s Kitchen.
Jack Ma’s obsession with catering has not changed for many years. A key reason is that his “catering dream” has not been realized over the years. Take Hema as an example. In November, Alibaba disclosed in its third quarter financial report that Hema’s listing plan was suspended. According to Alibaba’s fiscal year 2023 data, although Hema’s overall GMV exceeded 55 billion yuan, online transactions contributed more than 65 billion yuan. %, but overall offline customer flow and orders have not improved much.
It is worth noting that the "2022 China's Top 100 Chains List" shows that Hema Xiansheng is overwhelmed by Wal-Mart, Yonghui and RT-Mart in the retail field. In addition to its market position, Hema has also been fined many times for food safety issues. The products involved include black tiger shrimp, orange juice, Pingdu ginger, crucian carp... According to media statistics, Shanghai Hema alone has been fined cumulatively. 31 times, the fine amount was as high as 2.6288 million yuan.
Of course, in the entire e-commerce field, the presence of catering and food has never diminished. This may be a business gene engraved in Jack Ma’s bones. As early as 2018, reports showed that more than 1.6 billion people watched food live broadcasts on Taobao that year, and the food sold in the live broadcast rooms increased by more than 400% year-on-year.
In 2018, Taobao Mobile’s monthly active users were less than 700 million, of which 300 million were senior foodies. Almost half of the total allowed Jack Ma to see the potential of the catering industry, from within Alibaba to outside Alibaba, and continues to this day. This year is no exception. In the context of the overall silence of Double Eleven, relevant data shows that in the field of consumer goods, after the launch of Double Eleven, the most powerful category besides liquor is various consumption coupons for catering.
For Jack Ma, perhaps the catering plan still needs to move forward.
What’s left in the restaurant world?
In 2023, the catering market will be half sea water and half flame.
Generally speaking, the supply chain and service providers can still maintain the situation, but the situation of catering companies with a main store model is obviously not easy. Data from Qichacha shows that from January to October this year, a total of 1.056 million catering companies across the country were suspended. Even Han Han's restaurant was revealed to have lost hundreds of millions of yuan in October.
From the perspective of capital flow, we can also feel a chill. In the past two years, capital had nowhere to go and jumped on the dining table. However, from January to August this year, the number of financing events and the disclosed financing amount in the catering-related field dropped by 19.3% and 56.7% respectively compared with the same period in 2022. Among them, the total financing amount Only 35.9% of last year's full year.
The supply chain has become one of the few growth areas in the entire catering market. According to incomplete statistics from the Catering Supply Chain Guide, as of November 21, more than 50 financing events have occurred in the catering supply chain this year. The motto "Those who win the supply chain win the world" seems to have been spread for a long time.
Last year, when catering companies went bankrupt and closed and failed to go public, more than five A-share catering supply companies successfully went public. Mixue Bingcheng makes money through the supply chain under the guise of tea drinks. The financial report shows that 87.08% of its revenue comes from supply chain income. At present, Laoxiang Chicken, Ziyan Baiwei Chicken, Xibei Xiaomian Village, Heytea, Naixue, Chabaidao in the tea drinking circle... catering companies are also building their own supply chains.
Hema has even established its own supply warehouses across the country. Data shows that as of May this year, Hema has established 185 Hema villages across the country, 41 of which are organic Hema villages. In the next 10 years, Hema will also It is planned to build 1,000 Hema villages. The importance of the supply chain in the catering market is self-evident.
As for the field of catering service providers, companies focusing on robots, SaaS systems, and automation equipment are favored by capital. For example, Pudu Technology, which produces food delivery robots and cleaning robots, received two rounds of financing this year, and the financing amounts were both in the 100 million yuan level. Nonstop Technology on the same track received tens of millions of dollars in Series A financing in July this year. The brand was only established in 2021 and received two rounds of financing in 2022.
Red Food Industry Research Institute estimates that my country’s catering digital intelligence market will reach 11.763 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 42.9%. This field happens to be Ma Yun's favorite. As early as 2017, Ma Yun opened the first unmanned restaurant in Hangzhou, with intelligent ordering and facial recognition payment throughout the process.
In the context of the Great Depression in the catering environment, why have the catering supply chain and service providers not been hurt?
One of the main reasons is that both supply chains and service providers mostly rely on downstream chain restaurant brands. In 2023, restaurant chains seem to be doing pretty well. The "Chinese Chain Catering Enterprise Capital Road Series Report 2023" pointed out that in Q1 2023, more than 60% of chain catering enterprises' revenue will be better than last year, with leading chain catering chains such as Haidilao, Jiumaojiu, Tongqinglou and Quanjude performing well. The data disclosed by
supply chain companies also fully illustrates this point. Taking Qianwei Central Chef as an example, Qianwei Central Chef’s direct channel sales increased by 71.01% year-on-year in the first half of this year, and its proportion increased from 34.36% in the same period last year. to 44.85%. The sales volume of fried products represented by fried dough sticks is still the main source of the company's revenue, accounting for 45.94%. This is mainly due to the increase in new stores of B-end major customers and the increase in product demand.
But if you only look at the prepared dishes part of the supply chain, by 2023, capital will not be as enthusiastic about this field as before. Data shows that from January to August 2023, the number of financing events and the total disclosed financing of prepared vegetable companies have declined to varying degrees compared with the same period last year. There were 35 cases in the same period last year and 18 this year. The amount of financing also dropped from 1.89 billion to 5.7 billion. 100 million.
It’s really hard to say whether Jack Ma will be interested in the gradually cooling pre-made dishes.
Will consumption recovery start with catering?
In the field of consumption in 2023, recovery is a key task that is implemented from the beginning of the year to the end of the year, and the recovery of catering has also become an obvious signal for the restoration of vitality in the entire consumer market. At every holiday node this year, the current situation of the catering industry is a process of rising consumption. a vital part.
Catering has a prominent position in the consumer market, which is understandable. Even if the consumption environment is sluggish, consumers will not be too stingy with catering expenditures. A study by RET at the end of last year found that consumers aged 25 to 35 are more willing to spend on food, with food consumption accounting for 40.28% of all consumption budgets. What's more, the facts seem to be becoming more optimistic.
During this year’s May Day holiday, the national catering consumption recovery index increased by 18.84 percentage points compared with the Qingming holiday. The consumption scale has returned to 70% of the same period last year, which is about 20% higher than the Qingming holiday. During the Double 11 period, Ele.me released the Double 11 report card. Transaction volume, turnover and user scale all hit record highs. Among them, the number of merchants participating in Double 11 increased by 50% year-on-year, and consumption in third- and fourth-tier cities placed orders. The number of users increased by 60% year-on-year.
It is undeniable that whether it is online or offline, it all heralds the recovery of catering and even the entire consumption field. This lively scene has attracted countless people to the catering industry. Qichacha data shows that in the first three quarters of 2023, the number of registered catering-related enterprises nationwide reached 2.492 million, an increase of 18.2% compared with the same period in 2022.
Obviously, Jack Ma is also on the list.
However, many details remain to be verified as to whether catering consumption is really recovering or is it an illusion. The most important thing that cannot be ignored is that since this year, the catering industry has begun to set off a crazy consumption downgrade. For example, the nine-yuan tea drink market has swept the streets; Hema Fresh in the retail industry has started a price war; the giant Haidilao has entered the night market; Internet celebrity restaurants such as West Master and Hefu Lao Noodles have also lowered their prices.
one after another, directly stimulating consumers.
Take Haidilao as an example. Haidilao is trying to set up night market “stalls” in Qingdao, Shanghai, Shanxi and other places this year. Its products mainly include Bobo Chicken, Maoxuewang, Mao Naohua, Langya Potatoes, and Fried Fritters. It is reported that Hema has reduced the offline prices of more than 5,000 products by 20% starting from offline stores, including major catering products such as dairy products, biscuits, instant meals, water drinks, and frozen meat and poultry products. .
Looking at the consumer side, consumers who are keeping their pockets tight are undoubtedly the fundamental reason for the price reduction of restaurants. They are gradually staying away from tall restaurants with bright and clean windows, and are instead looking for food stalls in the streets. A search of popular new restaurants on Dianping.com showed that by category, beverages ranked first with 29.93%, fast food ranked second with 26.28%, baked desserts accounted for 13.14%, and snacks accounted for 9.49%.
It can be said that parity will save the catering market in 2023.
Luckin in the tea drinking circle defeated Starbucks with 9.9 yuan. In Q2 2023, Luckin's revenue increased 88% year-on-year to 6.2014 billion yuan, surpassing its old rival Starbucks China (5.96 billion yuan). Not only that, the number of Luckin’s domestic stores also exceeds that of Starbucks China.
Salia has become the most dazzling company in the field of Western food where per capita per capita has always been high. The financial report released by Salia shows that from September 2022 to May 2023, the operating profit of its Asia (excluding Japanese market) business increased by 62% to 4.9 billion yen. Previously, Salia's stores in China accounted for more than 90% of the Asian market. In other words, Salia's Asian business was basically driven by China.
trillion in catering, only snack streets are left to struggle.
