The Russo-Ukraine War has had an unprecedentedly strong impact on the global order, and the Western world is no exception. Under the impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War, a series of new trends and changes have taken place in the entire Western bloc from top to bottom, from the inside to the outside. It's something that I dare not even think about, but now similar things are emerging one after another. This is a deep-seated influence inspired by the Russo-Ukrainian War, and it is also an important strategic transformation. Considering the significance and influence of the Western bloc's move on the global order, we should pay enough attention to it.
In this regard, the author mainly talks about the following three aspects.
1. Contradictory fission stimulated by war
Once upon a time, when the Russo-Ukrainian war broke out, some Chinese intellectuals shouted, asking China to quickly make a decision to move closer to the United States. They listed an important The reason is that Europe will become more united due to Russia's aggression, and will stand together with the United States to fight Russia, and will be monolithic in the fight, which will not only increase the power of the Western bloc unprecedentedly, but also achieve an overwhelming and comprehensive war against Russia. Victory, but at the same time also closed and blocked any possibility of trying to step on two boats between the United States and Europe. Therefore, they strongly advocated that China should make a decision to lean towards the United States and the West. If it is not too late to surrender, it will cause serious dissatisfaction in the United States, and the United States, If Europe, that is, the entire West, is completely offended, then it will be in big trouble.
As a result, the voice of unprecedented unity and monolithic Europe resounded in China's well-known public opinion field. What is the truth about
?
The actual situation is that for Europe, the Russo-Ukrainian War was indeed a strong stimulus that had never been seen since the end of World War II , but the result of this strong stimulus was not unprecedented unity or monolithic unity, but Torn apart, wolves run wild. The main manifestations are:
First, conflicts are induced by each other
Based on historical experience, major European countries have many conflicts and deep-rooted conflicts of interest, many of which are unsolvable contradictions, but these contradictions are caused byCold WarAnd the Cold War The subsequent expansion can only be covered up. Now, under the strong stimulation of the Russia-Ukraine war, major countries such as Britain, France, Germany and Italy have begun to make their own calculations. They are full of their own interests in the policy towards Russia and the measures to deal with the war. They are all calculating how to make themselves through the crisis. To maximize their own interests, they are full of suspicion between each other, even at the expense of stabbing in the back. In this regard, Poland has gone the farthest and seems most impatient. This country, which has always been shallow and ignorant in strategy, thought that with the backing of the United States, it could be unscrupulous, so it released its ambitions and desires without any concealment. Come out, challenge Germany to the west, touch Ukraine to the east, and become hostile to Russia to the point of almost drawing swords. The most shocking thing is that the Polish authorities actually raised a sky-high WWII claim against Germany, simply pushing Germany to the strategic opposite of Poland. The deep historical hatred between the two countries was once again awakened and became a serious real conflict.
Similar conflicts not only occurred between Germany and Poland, but also other small and medium-sized countries such as Hungary, Serbia, and were also trapped in the vortex of contradictions and crises and could not extricate themselves.
Second, the outbreak of domestic conflicts
Russia-Uzbekistan war brought heavy pressure on European countries in all aspects, among them, the internal conflicts caused by economic pressure are quite obvious. Because of the sharp rise in prices and the rapid increase of public dissatisfaction, large-scale street protests broke out in various countries to oppose the authorities' war policy, and the society became more turbulent as a result. Reflected on the strategic level, under the pressure of the United States, fierce quarrels erupted within the ruling groups of various countries. Some advocated making decisions based on their own national interests, while others only followed the lead of the United States. , plunged the authorities into a political vortex, and faced an unprecedented test. Germany is a typical example. Although German Chancellor Scholz successfully visited China, it is still hard to say whether he can pass the border.
The third is the crisis swirling in Europe
The storm of the Russo-Ukraine warLocated in the land of Eastern Europe, but it is the EU that is caught in the whirlpool of crisis. Since the outbreak of this war, the EU has suffered repeated setbacks, shooting itself in the foot. The unprecedentedly severe economic sanctions against Russia did not do anything to Russia, but made the EU itself ashamed, and the explosion of the Beixi-2 pipeline even worse Such a blow hit the backbone of the EU economy. These continuous setbacks have caused the entire European Union to find no way out economically and politically. It is like a lone boat on the sea, and can only do unnecessary struggle in the wind and waves. It can be said that the crisis has engulfed Europe, and the days to come will be very sad, and it will not be sad for a moment, but will experience a long period of suffering.
The above-mentioned contradictions and conflicts continue to develop, which may lead to serious strategic fission in Europe and even the entire Western bloc. At present, such fission has already opened a big hole in its fringe part, namely Turkey.
Second, the power comparison under the impact of the war
The Russia-Uzbekistan war has developed to this point, and the two sides in the war are no longer concerned about the gain but the cost.
As far as Russia is concerned, the current situation is that it cannot end the battle on the battlefield without defeating Ukraine, and if it wants to defeat Ukraine on the battlefield, it must win a strategic victory in the strategic struggle with the United States and the West, otherwise Therefore, the Western bloc will give great aid and support to Ukraine with its strategic advantages, and the possibility of Russia winning the war is very slim; and to win the strategic struggle with the West, it is objectively required that Russia must obtain a clear advantage on the battlefield, even if it is a relative , a certain degree of military victory. This creates a rather embarrassing dilemma, such as crossing a river, but the ferry is on the opposite side, but the river cannot get the ferry, and if you can't get the ferry, you can't cross the river.
Therefore, since the Russo-Ukraine war has reached today, Russia can only base itself on the protracted period, and can only wait and look for opportunities in the protracted period.
For the United States and the West, in order to win the hybrid war with Russia, only relying on encirclement and suppression methods such as sanctions and containment seems to be of little help, or even useless. According to the current situation, such entanglement with Russia, even if it lasts for ten or eight years, may not produce any results. If you want to win the war, you must first win the victory on the battlefield, and to win the victory on the battlefield, you must defeat Russia's armed forces . Judging from the comparison of their respective strengths, if they go all out, the Western bloc headed by the United States is capable of doing this, but the price of defeating Russia will make them daunting. If Russia is really defeated, even if there is no nuclear The war is only limited to the scope of conventional wars, and the US and Western blocs and Russia will surely suffer one death and one injury. Russia may collapse and fall apart, but the entire Western world will also be injured and disabled. If there is an unfortunate nuclear war, the result is likely to be the end of both. Considering such costs and costs, the Western bloc headed by the United States will have to stay away from this. Now, they are not optimistic about the Russia-Ukraine war as a whole.
Therefore, under the strong impact of the Russia-Ukraine War, the balance of global strategic forces is undergoing significant changes:
First, the European part of the Western world has been seriously weakened
The so-called Russia-Ukraine War has strengthenedNATOIt is only a superficial phenomenon , in fact, both Europe and NATO, their overall strength has been severely consumed and weakened by the Ukrainian war, which has greatly reduced their ability to carry out larger strategic actions in the future. Correspondingly, the NATO group continues to The delusion that China will expand to the East and try to advance into the Asia-Pacific to play a role against China will also be significantly restrained.
Second, the United States may be nailed to that unlucky place in Ukraine for a long time. Don’t think that Ukraine is just a quagmire for Russia. In fact, it is becoming a quagmire for the United States. He is also in an embarrassing situation where he can't stop and can't make progress. If this war continues like this, the U.S. general election two years later will be a catastrophe for the Democratic Party's Biden group. At that time, the White House authorities will only fail but not see victory. Russian UkrainianIt is an obvious fact that the war has formed a strong strategic restraint on the United States.
This situation is a major failure of the current global strategy of the United States, and it is also a great interference factor in the "strategic competition" between China and the United States. Any so-called Russo-Ukrainian war that the United States has become the biggest beneficiary and that the United States has made a lot of money, It's all nonsense, the Pentagon wouldn't have such a stupid idea.
Thirdly, Russia can only hold on
Russia’s current strategic situation can be described as perilous and perilous, although this country has two reliable weapons for the country, namely a strong PutinPresident and a powerful nuclear strike Strength, but it is still extremely difficult to get rid of the current situation. Generally speaking, there is no direct and effective way, but it can only be "boiled" and "used" in this way. Looking forward to the future, the Russians can only hold on, and they must hold on, or they will die without a place to bury them. Now, there is a wave of public opinion in China, spreading rumors that the West will strategically accommodate Russia so that Russia can contain China. This is completely nonsense. In fact, for a long historical period in the future, Russia can only rely more heavily on China strategically.
Therefore, looking at the Russia-Uzbekistan war from the perspective of strategic balance, we can see that the balance of global power continues to tilt in favor of China, and the overall situation continues to favor China but is not conducive to hegemony and Western groups. This is a general trend . That is to say, the Russo-Ukraine War not only did not change the basic situation of the world's "rising east and falling west", but also obviously accelerated and intensified this situation.
3. The new world order brought by the war
During the Russo-Ukraine war, Russian President Vladimir Putin made many important speeches that attracted attention. The Russo-Ukrainian War undoubtedly had great positive significance, highlighted by the fact that it played a huge traction role, and it seemed to be the last blow to promote the global strategic order.
Regardless of whether President Putin's opinion is accurate or not, it cannot but lead to thinking about what kind of new changes are taking place in the world order under the traction and pull of the Ukraine war.
This is indeed a very complicated issue, involving a large and deep area. Let’s explore it from the perspectives of economy, politics and strategy:
First, Economic crisisNew development
Economic order is the foundation of world order , wars have always had a strong impact on the economic order first, and the Ukrainian war is also the same. This war shattered the capitalist world’s delusions of getting out of the economic and financial crisis since 2008, and on this basis, it also crushed the financial system. The drastic change in the relationship between money, energy and food supply has further developed the economic crisis into a more severe economic war.
In this special form of war, "de-globalization", "decoupling", "technical blockade" and "de-dollarization" have become the main offensive and defensive measures. Driven by these measures, the global economic order has already moved forward. On the way to a major reorganization.
However, judging from the current situation, this economic war is still developing and changing, and it is far from reaching its climax and peak. In terms of scale, there are still some countries and regions that have not been involved; in terms of extent, a state of polarization has not yet formed; in terms of means, they are still relatively moderate, and have not yet reached the level of ruthlessness in the economic wars between the two world wars. Therefore, the Western world is still on the road of development from economic crisis to economic war, and is still in the initial stage of economic war. If it continues along this path, to what extent will economic war develop and what kind of consequences will it lead to? It is too early to say what the new global economic order will be. The only thing that is certain is that the tumultuous round of "globalization" is doomed to come to an end.
Second, the decline of Western democracy
Now, people have seen clearly what happened under capitalist democratic politics. After the end of the Cold War, the arrogance of capitalism that dominated the world has disappeared. The so-called "end of history" has resulted in a terrible degeneration. The intrigue and strife within the Western ruling class has reached an unprecedented level in history, and unprecedented political chaos has appeared, and it has even developed to the point of being on the verge of civil war.Spend. The halo and glamorous coat of a democratic system in a period is now dilapidated and extremely ugly, and people's trust and confidence in this system have plummeted. The United States and the United Kingdom, the two leading brothers of capitalism, bear the brunt of it, and they have set a good example. At the same time, people have seen dialectically, comprehensively and clearly what capitalist modernization has brought to the world. That is, while bringing great technological progress, it also brings astonishing destruction, depravity and perdition. The capitalist modernization model has developed to the present, and it is full of parasitic and predatory internally and externally. Under the capitalist global order, the development gap between countries in the world is getting wider and wider. Except for a few Western developed countries that are at the top of the tower, the majority of third world countries are suppressed at the bottom and difficult to stand up. There is no channel for upward development. , Lost the opportunity and possibility to move towards international equal status. The so-called capitalist democratic system has become very reactionary both internally and externally, and is widely hated and hated.
It should be said that the process of the decline of Western democracy mentioned above had already begun before the Russo-Ukrainian War, but the Russo-Ukrainian War did not play a redemptive and redemptive role in this, and did not make people see the "goodness" and "goodness" of the Western democratic system. On the contrary, during the course of the war, what people saw was the ugly performances of "helping evil" and "doing evil" of the Western clique under this system. That is to say, the Ukrainian war has further exposed the true face of capitalist democracy, and it has once again suffered serious degradation on a large scale as a system. Instead of being rejuvenated by the war, this system has fallen deeper into the crisis of various internal and external conflicts. Its self-healing ability is deteriorating, and there is no prospect of self-healing. That is to say, the Russo-Ukraine war has accelerated the decline of Western democracy, and no one knows where the bottom is.
Thirdly, the new process of degeneration of hegemony
Hegemony is going downhill instead of uphill, which even the head of the White House authority, the President of the United States, has to admit. They are doing their best to restore and regain this momentum, and all their actions are centered around this core goal, such as hybrid wars against China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and other countries, such as the "strategic war" launched against China. competition" etc. The reality before
is that the hegemony is deeply involved in the ongoing Ukrainian war, and has almost become the protagonist of this war. But the question is, can this war save the hegemony and make it recover from its decline?
We believe that for the hegemony, the Russo-Ukrainian war has led to three obvious consequences. First, the hegemony’s ability to deter and contain wars has obvious flaws. Russia’s daring to go to war against Ukraine is the failure and failure of the US strategic deterrence. The malfunction and failure will not stop here only once; secondly, the world will fall into the process of more intense turmoil and major reorganization, and the hegemony will be exhausted and unable to do what it wants. Right now, the White House authorities are facing Iran and North Korea. To a certain extent, the same is true for Turkey; third, the strategy of containing China will become more difficult to be effective, because the Russo-Ukrainian war has opened up many gaps and provided China with many opportunities, and it can be seen from the Chinese mainland This is the case in the east, west, north, and south. China's active diplomacy in the recent period after the 20th National Congress is a good proof. Of course, if the hegemony wins the Russo-Ukrainian war in an all-round way, the situation will be different. But the problem is that it is impossible for Russian Putin to allow such a situation, and Russia also has the ability to prevent and snipe such a situation.
In this way, for the Russo-Ukrainian war, the hegemonic country probably can only swallow tears and pretend to be happy, and the result will not help restore the decline of hegemony, but will start a new process of accelerated decline of hegemony. Two years later, when President Biden ended his term of office, looking back on his four years in power, the result must be "the past is hard to look back on" and "the United States is even worse."
Whether the profound changes in the above aspects will give birth to the new world order that President Putin mentioned, frankly speaking, I am afraid that it is still hard to say, but it should be an undeniable fact that the world order is being rewritten at an accelerated rate. In this sense, Russian President Vladimir Putin's statement that the Ukrainian-Russian war ushered in or created a new world order is not aimless or alarmist. From this,
examines the impact and impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on the world and the Western world. The conclusion is beyond doubt that the Russo-Ukrainian War has made the turbulent world even more turbulent under the great changes unseen in a century. Where is the apex of the climax,So far no one knows. The possible trend in the future is that in a historical period, turbulence has become the mainstream of human society, and balance and stability have become rare. Under such circumstances, there may be a dangerous state where confrontation outweighs cooperation, and the crisis of war overwhelms the appeal for peace. This is indeed a crossroads for human progress, but it is a crossroads full of risks and challenges.
(The author is a senior researcher at Kunlun Ce Research Institute; source: Kunlun Ce Network [original] revised draft, authorized by the author for publication)
