Thanks to the obvious cost advantage, the current global shipping volume accounts for more than 90% of the total trade volume, and container shipping is one of the most important shipping methods, and its trade volume accounts for more than 80% of the shipping trade volume. Global trade has huge implications.
According to public data, the latest issue of the Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange is 2562.12 points, a 10% drop from the previous issue, and has fallen for 13 consecutive weeks. In addition, the Drewry World Container Freight Index (WCI) has declined for 28 consecutive weeks, and the Baltic dry bulk freight index is currently at a low level in the past two years.
Generally speaking, the third quarter is the traditional peak season for global sea container transportation, and sea freight prices will also "go up". For Chinese foreign trade companies that once suffered from "hard to find a box", will this decline be a good thing for reducing import and export logistics costs? Whether
is good or not depends not only on the real reason for the decline in ocean freight rates, but also on the extent of the decline. Only moderately falling freight rates can help eliminate the "false fire" in the global shipping market.
Since the beginning of this year, the global container transportation market has generally continued the market since the second half of last year. The price of container shipping has been fluctuating since reaching its peak at the beginning of this year, especially due to the high inflation rates in European and American countries, geopolitical conflicts in some regions, and the continuous spread of the epidemic. Due to the superimposed influence of factors, the demand in the global shipping market has shrunk sharply. In addition, the imbalance in the allocation of international shipping capacity and the decrease in orders in the shipbuilding market have also had a certain impact on shipping prices.
It needs to be pointed out that this round of continuous decline in shipping prices is, in a sense, a phased callback to last year's "abnormally high" shipping prices, which will help pull the soaring shipping prices back to a relatively reasonable price level . That is to say, at present, the moderate drop of international shipping price is reasonable, but the continuous sharp drop or even a cliff-like drop is not conducive to the healthy development of the entire shipping market . Although the proportion of sea freight to the entire foreign trade cost is not the highest, the drastic fluctuation of freight will inevitably be transmitted to the foreign trade market, and then affect the smooth operation of the entire foreign trade industry chain and supply chain.
It is still too early to draw conclusions about the impact of the sharp drop in sea freight on foreign trade. On the surface, the shrinking shipping market is the direct cause of the sharp drop in shipping rates, but the underlying reason lies in changes in the external demand market. Compared with the explosive growth of the container shipping market last year, although its market growth rate has declined in the first half of this year, the overall container shipping trade volume is still at a high level in the market. However, since the third quarter, inflationary pressures in countries such as Europe and the United States have continued to increase, resulting in a continuous decline in market demand. In addition, a large number of previously accumulated inventories have yet to be digested. Many importers have to reduce or even cancel commodity orders. In the future, "order shortage" or will be further highlighted.
The results of a survey conducted by the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade show that the vast majority of foreign trade companies believe that they are currently facing the difficulty of reducing orders. The latest China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is 49.4%, although it has risen by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but it is still below the boom-bust line , indicating that market demand is still relatively weak. With the alleviation of extreme weather such as high temperature and drought, PMI is expected to pick up and improve, but the traditional overseas market has entered the end of inventory replenishment, and there is a high probability that external demand will remain weak in the fourth quarter, which may slow down the overall growth rate of foreign trade.
On the whole, the risks and challenges faced by my country's foreign trade have increased significantly at present and in the future. In this context, the executive meeting of the State Council has recently introduced a number of targeted policy measures, starting from the establishment of a cross-border e-commerce comprehensive test area, smoothing the channels for foreign trade companies to seize orders, and providing exchange rate risk hedging and Cross-border RMB settlement services and other aspects have further consolidated the foundation for the steady growth of foreign trade. For the vast number of foreign trade companies, the rise and fall of sea freight should be paid attention to, but the top priority is to continue to make full use of the policy bonus , to reduce costs and increase efficiency with a more complete supply chain layout and market expansion, so as to be more efficientAdvantageous products are built and upgraded to enhance competitiveness.
Author: Gu Yang
Producer: Qiao Shenying
Editor: Zhang Shuo
