After "persuading young people not to buy a house too early", Peking University Professor Yao Yang recently made a surprising statement on the Internet. This time, he said: The state should give low-income families cash, a family of 10,000 Yuan! But it was immediately opposed. Who are the people who are opposing? What is the reason for the opposition? Let's see what's going on together.
On March 17 this year, a topic titled " Professor of Peking University advises young people not to buy a house too early" became a trending topic. In the video, Yao Yang, the dean of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, earnestly said: Advise young people not to buy a house so early. In recent days, Professor Yao made a surprising statement in a public speech. Professor Yao said: "Now the country should distribute money to the common people. Some people say that 1,000 yuan per person is too little. I will give 10,000 yuan to each family, and I agree with it.” As the dean of Peking University’s Institute of International Development, Professor Yao’s words are certainly not empty words. Professor Yao’s starting point is to ensure that domestic economic growth.
said that this year’s economic development is under great pressure. I am afraid that all walks of life will not deny it. After finally surviving the third year of the epidemic, I wondered whether the epidemic should be withdrawn. As a result, several waves of epidemics since March have caused many domestic The city has entered a semi-closed state. There are many epidemics in China, but there are black swans flying all over the world, the Fed’s interest rate hike has already worried the global market. As a result, another war broke out between Russia and Ukraine, which further raised the global food and energy prices.
The country’s economic development has faced the greatest pressure in the past few years. Professor Yao’s suggestion that the country distribute money to the common people and more money to low-income families is precisely from the perspective of the overall situation of “stabilizing the economy and maintaining growth”. Everyone knows that during our two sessions this year, the government set a target for the growth of GDP for the whole year. It is not easy to achieve a growth rate of 5.5%, especially under the pressure of internal and external troubles. . The three carriages that drive economic growth are export, investment and consumption. Whether these three carriages run fast or not has a crucial impact on the annual GDP target of 5.5%. So, what are these three carriages? How did you run?
Let’s talk about import and export first. Many friends around me have recently seen a news that Vietnam is replacing China and becoming the factory of the world. Many people are worried about our country’s import and export data. In fact, you don’t have to worry too much. In fact, since 2020, our country's import and export data have maintained rapid growth, not worse than Vietnam at all. On the contrary, Vietnam's domestic industrial system is still relatively simple. It may take a long time to truly reach China's manufacturing level. way to go.
said that our import and export situation is not bad, of course it must be supported by facts. Since the first quarter of 2020, China, as a top student in the fight against the epidemic, has recovered from the epidemic faster than manufacturing countries such as Vietnam and India. As the domestic epidemic situation is under control, factories can resume normal operations, and import and export data will appear immediately rebound. In 2020 and 2021, our country's import and export performance is very impressive. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the total import and export of goods in 2021 will reach 39100.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%, and the total export volume will reach 217348 billion, an increase of 21.2%.
Since the beginning of this year, although some regions have been affected by the epidemic, exports will definitely be affected in the short term, but due to the recent depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar, it can promote the development of exports to a certain extent. I believe that after the epidemic is brought under control, exports will still continue to grow Maintain a state of high prosperity. After
finished talking about exports, let’s talk about investment. There is a big news this week, everyone must have paid attention to it. The State Council held a teleconference on "National Stabilization of the Economy Market ". It is also necessary to participate in the meeting through video, so the importance of the meeting goes without saying. The meeting proposed that domestic infrastructure investment and development and construction should be promoted as soon as possible, including investment projects such as water conservancy, transportation, renovation of old communities, and underground comprehensive utility corridors. It is estimated that this year, the country's investment in infrastructure, water conservancy, etc.,will exceed the scale of ten trillion yuan.
In the final analysis, investment is mainly a government action, which is closely related to the country’s major policies. This year, both the central government and various provinces and cities have already made efforts in the investment field, and the scale far exceeds the 4 trillion yuan in 2008. Therefore, Domestic investment will reach a small climax in recent years.
The two chariots of export and investment obviously run relatively fast, so what about consumption? Consumption is essentially the market behavior of ordinary people. After the epidemic, whether it is from domestic consumption data or the consumption enthusiasm of ordinary people, it is relatively weak. Since 2020, although our country's epidemic prevention work has been done well, the impact of the epidemic cannot be ignored. Many companies have encountered operational difficulties, and many people have suffered unemployment. Among the just-released April economic data, there are two data that are not optimistic. One is that the social financial data has fallen off a cliff, and the other is that the domestic unemployment rate has begun to rise.
Recently, Bloomberg also announced the forecast data for China’s economy this year. It is estimated that the GDP growth rate will be around 2%, which is less than half of 5.5%. , it will be very difficult. Sending money to the common people is the prescription that Professor Yao Yang, as an expert, prescribed to boost consumption.
According to Professor Yao, since the outbreak, the savings willingness of ordinary households in China has increased significantly. It is too little to give out 1,000 yuan per person to stimulate consumption by distributing cash to ordinary people. Low-income people can give 10,000 yuan to each family. In Professor Yao's view, there are several advantages to giving ordinary people and low-income families direct cash payments:
First, those affected by the epidemic, whose income has declined, or even lost their jobs, can get supplies, which relieves their urgent needs to a certain extent. For those who dare not spend, you can limit the use and consumption period of cash so that everyone can use up the money as soon as possible, so that domestic consumption can be quickly started;
Secondly, in addition to being beneficial to consumers, The discovery of gold can also have direct benefits for enterprises. If the common people stop consuming, there will be no market for the products produced by enterprises, and it will be difficult for those shopping malls and stores opened on the side of the road to survive. Once these consumption places are shut down, it will be more difficult to restart them. The professor said that there used to be a food street next to Peking University. After the epidemic, the number of people became less and less, and the food street was closed. Several years later, it has not reopened. The government actively stimulates consumption by issuing money, which can help these enterprises to survive.
Professor Yao believes that the government should directly provide residents with cash to stimulate consumption, which is supported by some domestic economists. At the just-concluded Wudaokou Chief Economist Forum, Professor of Tsinghua UniversityLi Daokui pointed out that the proposal Support low-income families by distributing cash, and directly distribute 10,000 yuan in cash to each household.
However, some people are not optimistic about the discovery of gold. Li Zhuqiao, deputy director of the Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Statistics , supports the government to issue consumer coupons to stimulate consumption. He believes that discovery of gold will lead to "money lying flat." Many people may put money in the bank instead of buying things, and it will not help expand the production of enterprises. In fact, since the beginning of this year, in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Ningbo, and other places, the government has issued consumer coupons to promote consumption. At present, no cash stimulus policy has been issued. The reason is that, compared with cash, issuing Consumer vouchers have two advantages:
First, consumers have a more obvious stimulating effect on ordinary residents, especially low-income families. For the rich, consumer coupons are not very attractive, and they are not very interested. But for those who are in a tight economy, the help of consumers is more practical. As long as they can get these tens of dollars or hundreds of dollars in coupons, they will also be consumed where they want to spend. There will be a waste of coupons. But if it is found gold, many people may save it for use, so that the promotion effect on consumption is relatively weak.
In addition, the functionality of the consumer coupon is stronger, it can be designed, and it has directional support linesrole of industry. The consumption vouchers issued by many cities have been designed to a certain extent, and not all stores can be used. Some consumption vouchers are used to buy cars, some consumption vouchers go to shopping malls, and some travel vouchers can only be used. Firstly, by specifying the consumption scenarios of consumer coupons, the government can provide targeted support to related industries. Generally speaking, the government mainly wants to support those enterprises that are more concerned with people's livelihood and have thinner profit margins, rather than those with low profit margins. High, monopoly-type enterprises.
However, many ordinary people make complaints about it, which limits the use scenarios of consumption coupons. For many people, consumption coupons have very few uses, and the effect on relieving the pressure of life for ordinary people is not obvious.
What do you think about this problem? Do you agree with distributing cash, or do you think it is more appropriate to distribute consumer coupons? Everyone is welcome to leave a message and discuss in the comment area, and we will see you next time!