The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee set the tone for next year’s economy, and supporting economic recovery and development has become the top priority. At the same time, the State Council issued ten new measures to fully liberalize control and promote market vitality. In addition, residents’ consumption and terminal real estate policies have strong support, and restrictions on purchases in many places have been loosened At the same time, iron ore and coking coal have risen sharply, steel mills still have winter storage purchase demand under low inventory, and steel prices continue to rise to open up space for the fourth round of coking coal rises, but in the off-season , Insufficient release of terminal purchases, what is the trend of the steel market in the later stage, and let’s listen to analysts’ detailed analysis...
Steel market influencing factors
The property market policies in many places have been relaxed, and the demand has been increased.
z Attention: Foshanfully liberalize housing purchase restrictions; Wuhan adjusts purchase restrictions and lifts purchase restrictions in the property market outside the second ring road; Xiamen The families and individuals who do not actually work and live in the city and do not have a house can purchase only one house outside the island.
Analyst’s point of view: With the real estate industry’s “three arrows coming together”, the central bank, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission and other departments provide strong support, financing is less difficult, coupled with the optimization of domestic epidemic control, the recovery of economic activities, and the recovery of residents’ income expectations , the supply and demand of various industries are picking up, and the policy relaxation of the economic meeting this week is gradually implemented, and the macro-positive expectations are still there, which is good for the trend of steel prices.
In the first ten months of this year, individual businesses enjoyed tax cuts and fee reductions328.5 billion
The data released by the State Administration of Taxation on December 12 showed that in the first ten months of this year, individual businesses enjoyed tax cuts and fee reductions of 328.5 billion yuan. About 430 billion yuan. With the further expansion of the " six taxes and two fees " reduction policy, the preferential tax policy has covered all individual industrial and commercial households.
analyst’s point of view: With the efforts of multiple departments, multiple measures will be taken to consolidate the foundation for the stabilization of the industrial economy, accelerate the implementation of policies and measures, and boost ’s economic operation. Driven by expectations, the next step is the gradual start of demand. For the steel industry, the cost support of iron ore and coking coal is strong, which drives the spot price to rise continuously. Merchants gradually accept the price increase, and the market volume increases, which is good for steel. Prices moved higher.
excavator operating hours for 9 consecutive months year-on-year decline
Komatsu official website announced the operating hours data of Komatsu excavator in November 2022, the operating hours of Komatsu excavator in November 2022 is 9. decreased by 3.5% compared with , and decreased by 11.3% year-on-year, which was a year-on-year decrease for nine consecutive months. In November, the operating hours of Komatsu excavators decreased year-on-year, and the rate of decline expanded.
Analyst’s point of view: Entering December, the off-season of traditional steel consumption is approaching, and the end of the year is approaching. The progress of terminal projects is limited, and the market purchase volume is declining. Coupled with the impact of the epidemic, the operating rate of major projects has dropped, resulting in the continuous operating hours of excavators for 9 At the same time, the demand for steel products has also dropped sharply, suppressing the trend of steel prices.
市场价格
期货持红震荡
12日焦煤主力合约再度大幅拉涨超4%，螺纹钢主力涨26，收报3935，涨幅0.67%；热卷主力涨31，收报4036，涨幅0.77%; the main force of coking coal rose 75, closing at 1930, an increase of 4.04%; the main force of coke rose 72, closing at 1930At 2988, an increase of 2.47%; iron ore fell 6.5 to close at 802.5, a decrease of 0.8%.
Most of the steel mills raised their prices
According to the data from the China Steel Network Information Research Institute, a total of 23 steel mills adjusted their prices today, of which:
raised 19 , accounting for 82.6%, and the price adjustment range was 20-60 yuan/ton. , accounting for 17.4%.
As of 15:00 on the 12th, the ex-factory price of ordinary carbon billets in Tangshan, Hebei, in December has increased by 190 yuan to 3740 yuan/ton.
The spot price generally rose
China Steel Network APP data shows:
The average spot price rose again today, with a maximum increase of 130 yuan. Among the 24 markets of
building materials , 22 markets rose by 10-130, and the average price of rebar 20mmHRB400E was 3988 yuan/ton, which was 61 yuan/ton higher than the price of the previous trading day;
Among the 24 markets of , 24 rose by 20- 120, the average price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils is 4107 yuan/ton, an increase of 64 yuan/ton compared with the price of the previous trading day; among the 23 markets of
medium and thick plate , 22 rose by 30-120, and the average price of 14-20mm ordinary medium plate 4155 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.
steel price forecast
as China gradually relaxes the epidemic prevention policy, market trading activities pick up, the BDI index rebounded from December 6, and the BDI index hit a new high in 4 weeks! The bulk carrier market continues to improve, and the active trading atmosphere of mining routes has led to an increase in shipping prices, coupled with the gradual implementation of the macroeconomic policy , market expectations have been driven, and merchants have increased inventory replenishment. However, in the off-season, the operating rate of projects has declined , the amount of steel used in the terminal has declined, and the game between strong expectations and weak reality continues. In the later period, we will focus on the Fed’s interest rate hike in the early morning of Thursday. expects steel prices to run steadily in the short term.
