The Taiwan Strait crisis may impact the chip industry. (Schematic diagram/Reuters)
2021 is coming to an end. Looking forward to 2022, the economy is affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, and there are still many hidden worries and risks. Foreign media specially compiled ten factors that may have an impact on the global economy to remind investors One can think twice, among them, if the crisis in the Taiwan Strait escalates, it will drag down Taiwan's chip industry and affect the whole world.
US media reported that many economic research institutions believe that the economy will generally experience a strong recovery next year, inflation data will cool down, and monetary policy will shift, but there are many unexpected factors that will change the situation, including the new mutant strain , the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, the Taiwan Strait crisis, high inflation, runs on emerging markets, and Britain’s hard Brexit. The
Omicron variant brings more blockades
Omicron has become the mainstream variant strain in the United States, especially it is more threatening than previous generations of virus strains, which means that the epidemic will still affect life in an all-round way, and the global supply chain The problem will continue to worsen, causing more people to be excluded from the job market, and what has happened in the past will happen again.
Geopolitical risk
The escalation of the situation in the Taiwan Strait, whether it is a total blockade of Taiwan by the mainland or a direct invasion of Taiwan, will involve many major countries in the world, but a war between superpowers is very bad, and it may happen that China-US relations will be frozen Sanctions, the collapse of Taiwan's semiconductor industry, etc. However, Taiwan's semiconductor industry has a huge impact on the world's automobile industry, smartphone industry, and many other aspects.
Inflation remains high
At the beginning of 2021, the market expected the US inflation rate to be 2%, but in fact it has soared to around 7%. In 2022, the market has a consensus that the inflation rate will decline, but there may be unexpected changes As it turns out, Omicron is just one potential cause, with U.S. labor wages already rising rapidly and showing no signs of slowing down; tensions between Russia and Ukraine could send gas prices soaring, and food prices could rise as the climate changes dramatically will continue to rise.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates
Looking at the past history, the rate hike in 2013 caused panic, and the stock market fell in 2018, which shows that the rate hike still has an impact on the market. The risk of this rate hike is that all asset prices have already Some agencies predict that if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates three times next year, it will push up the yield rate and credit spread of US Treasury bonds, which will lead to an economic recession in early 2023.
The Federal Reserve’s multiple interest rate hikes will affect emerging markets
The rate hike may lead to a sharp drop in emerging markets. Five countries including Argentina, Egypt, Brazil, South Africa and Turkey will be the top five risk economies next year, among which Argentina, South Africa and Turkey is a country that suffered major shocks after the US raised interest rates from 2013 to 2018, while Taiwan has a relatively low debt and ample current account surplus, so the risk of capital flight is relatively small.
Changes in the political situation in Europe
Although the leaders of European countries unite in support of European projects, and the European Central Bank has also controlled government borrowing costs, hoping to help Europe survive the crisis of the new crown pneumonia, but in the next year, the presidential elections in Italy and France will be This may change. If right-wing, eurosceptic figures are brought into power, it may deprive the central bank of the political support it needs, and the tranquility of the European bond market will also be disrupted.
Brexit
Negotiations between the UK and the EU on the Northern Ireland Protocol will continue until 2022, and there will be challenges in reaching a consensus. This uncertainty will hit business investment and drag down the pound, which will affect people's Real incomes push up inflation, and if Britain breaks out in a tariff war with Europe, tariffs and supply chain tensions will also drive up prices.
The future of fiscal policy
During the epidemic, many countries chose to implement loose monetary policies to reduce the impact. However, as the epidemic enters the later stage, the future of fiscal policy has also become the focus of attention. Many countries tend to tighten their wallets. The decline in public expenditure in 2022 At around 2.5% of global GDP, it is five times more than the fiscal austerity measures that slowed the economic recovery after the 2008 financial crisis.
High food prices and turmoil
The impact of the new crown pneumonia and the dangerous weather conditions make it difficult to control the price of food, and there is a great chance that it will remain at a high level next year. In 2011, the rise in food prices triggered a wave of public protests, even if the popular uprising is a Regional events will still cause widespread regionalThe risk is rising, which is also the focus of next year.
