Last week (December 5-December 9), U.S. stocks fluctuated within a narrow range, dived in late trading and closed down across the board. The Dow fell more than 300 points, hitting a new closing low since November 9. point, the S&P sector was almost wiped out, with a drop of 0.73% to 3934.38 points.
The A-share market surged and fluctuated. At the beginning of the week, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index jumped and opened high, and stood at 3200 points. In the next four trading days, both sides competed around 3200 points. As of Friday, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index closed at 3206 points. now has three consecutive suns. Affected by the surge of A shares and the optimization of epidemic prevention measures, China's logistics concept stocks generally rose.
In terms of listed Chinese logistics companies, Jingdong Logistics rose 15.2%, YTO Express rose 12.4%, Meituan rose 12.2%, Yunda Express rose 10.6%, SF Holdings rose 8.3%, Shentong Express rose 4.9%, Debon shares rose 3.45%, ZTO Express rose 2.96%.
In terms of large overseas logistics listed companies, FedEx fell 5%, and Maersk fell 1.69%. PalmChain·First Logistics Network "Weekly Logistics Stock Market" made the following sorting out of 8 listed companies related to express delivery and e-commerce logistics, 2 logistics and supply chain companies, and 2 logistics companies last week.
1. Express delivery and e-commerce logistics
1. Jingdong Logistics rose 15.2%, and the industry stabilized and continued to develop
Last week, Jingdong Logistics stock price first fell and then rose. The opening price on Monday was 14.62 yuan, fell 1.4% on Tuesday, fell 3.49% on Wednesday, rose 8.85% on Thursday, and closed at 16.26 on Friday, up 15.2% in a week.
On December 8, JD Logistics rose by more than 8%. According to the November 2022 China Express Development Index Report released by the State Post Bureau, China’s express delivery development index in November was 338.7, an increase of 1.2% year-on-year. The report believes that although the industry has experienced short-term fluctuations, as the postal express industry continues to show the effect of ensuring smooth flow, distribution centers, outlets and personnel are unblocked in an orderly manner, and the difficulties and blockages in the operation of the industry are speeding up. The microcirculation at the end will be smoother, and the foundation of the industry's stabilization and upward trend will be further established.
2. ZTO Express rose 2.96%, signed a logistics agreement with Douyin e-commerce
Last week, ZTO Express’ stock price rose and fell staggered. The closing price on Friday was 25.72 yuan, up 2.96% in a week.
News on December 9, ZTO Express recently signed a logistics operation guarantee agreement with Douyin e-commerce for the 2022 "Good Things New Year's Day" logistics operation guarantee agreement, and became a special logistics partner of the Douyin platform during this New Year's goods festival . Orders shipped from 00:00:00 on December 28 to 23:59:59 on January 7, 2023 (hereinafter referred to as the guarantee period) will provide solid logistics operation guarantee for merchants' fulfillment of contracts and consumers' shopping experience.
With the further optimization of domestic epidemic prevention and control policies in the future, the demand for express delivery is expected to pick up, and ZTO Express will maintain high-quality growth.
3. YTO Express rose 12.4%, and the increase in registered capital was recommended by Guosen Securities
Last week, YTO Express shares rose. The opening price on Monday was 19.37 yuan, up 4.62% on Tuesday, 4.32% on Wednesday, and 1.58% on Thursday, closing on Friday The price is 21.55 yuan, up 12.4% in a week.
On December 7, YTO Express Co., Ltd. underwent industrial and commercial changes, and its registered capital increased from 820 million yuan to 1.17 billion yuan, an increase of over 43%.
Guosen Securities said that the second, third, and fourth quarters of this year were the low points for the growth of express delivery demand. With the implementation of the optimization policy for epidemic prevention and control, the growth of express delivery demand is expected to recover next year, and the benign price competition among Tongda departments can continue. Yuantong The valuations in 2023 are all at historically low levels of forward-looking valuations, and we maintain our recommendation for YTO.
4. SF Holdings rose 8.3% and was recommended by Guosen Securities.
SF Holdings’ stock price rose last week. It opened at 54.57 yuan on Monday, rose 3.5% on Tuesday, rose 1.05% on Wednesday, fell 0.61% on Thursday, and closed at 58.03 yuan on Friday. It was up 8.3% for the week.
SF Holdings announced on December 6 that Shenzhen Tongcheng, a wholly-owned subsidiary of , a listed subsidiary of the company, signed the "Xiamen Xiaoyu Qingcheng Venture Capital Partnership (Limited Partnership) Partnership Agreement", mainly investing in smart, low-cost A non-listed company in the fields of carbon and new opportunities for local life.
On December 9th, SF Holdings appeared in the top ten most traded stocks in the Shenzhen Stock Connect, ranking the 8th in the Shenzhen Stock Connect turnover volumeof Hong Kong funds, with a total turnover of 921 million . Guosen Securities said that for SF Express , the fluctuation of its annual capital expenditure has led to its profit being cyclical. The company’s capital expenditure will be reduced this year and next, while the overall logistics demand is expected to pick up next year. Next year, SF Express’ asset utilization rate is expected to continue Restoration, the net profit will continue to be greatly restored, and considering the catalysis of the operation of the Ezhou Airport Transit Center in the middle of next year, SF Holdings is recommended.
5. Shentong Express rose 4.9%, and was positively evaluated by Guohai Securities
STO Express stock price rose last week, opened at 10.87 yuan on Monday, rose 1.91% on Tuesday, rose 1.61% on Wednesday, rose 0.53% on Thursday, and closed on Friday The price is 11.2 yuan, up 4.9% in a week.
STO Express financing and securities lending information shows that on December 7, 2022, financing net purchased 745,400 yuan; the financing balance was 372 million yuan, an increase of 0.2% from the previous day.
Guohai Securities believes that Shentong has proposed a three-year investment plan of 10 billion yuan, and through the implementation of measures such as network-wide capacity expansion, quality improvement, and efficiency enhancement, the company's product strength is expected to continue to improve. In 2022, the company plans to implement 82 production capacity improvement projects, and it is expected that the normal throughput production capacity will expand to 50 million pieces per day by the end of the year.
6, Yunda rose 10.6%, and the long-term competitive advantage is still maintained "buy" rating
Yunda Express stock price rose last week. The opening price on Monday was 13.12 yuan, rose 3.22% on Tuesday, 2.27% on Wednesday, 1.59% on Thursday, and closed at 14.29 yuan on Friday, up 10.6% in a week.
According to the investment analysis of Hexun.com, the epidemic will have the most significant and continuous impact on Yunda in 2022, and the share recovery in the second half of the year will be slower than expected. Considering that market expectations have bottomed out, and the company's long-term competitive advantage is still there, if consumption recovers and management changes, it is expected to improve beyond expectations in 2023. Considering the impact of the epidemic, the net profit forecast for 2022-23 has been lowered to 1.4/2.8 billion (originally 1.5/3.2 billion), and the 2024 forecast is maintained at 3.8 billion. Maintain target price of 25.59 yuan and overweight rating.
7. Debon shares rose 3.45%, and it was heavily held by Changxin Enterprise Preferred Fund. The opening price on Monday was 20.54 yuan, rose 0.73% on Tuesday, rose 0.43% on Wednesday, rose 7.23% on Thursday, closed at 21 yuan on Friday, and rose 3.45% in a week.
On December 8, Debon shares (603056) rose 7.23% to hit a 60-day high. In the last 90 days, a total of 4 institutions gave ratings for the stock, including buy ratings, 2 companies, and neutral ratings 2 companies; The price is 21.21.
According to the 2022Q3 quarterly public offering fund heavy holding data, there are a total of 7 public offering funds holding Debang shares heavily, among which the public offering fund with the largest number of holdings is Changxin Enterprise's preferred one-year holding mix.
8. Meituan rose by 12.2%. As the leading platform in the industry, it led the gains. It opened at 175 yuan on Monday, fell 0.29% on Tuesday, fell 3.62% on Wednesday, rose 6.45% on Thursday, closed at 188.5 yuan on Friday, and rose 12.2% in a week.
On December 5, according to the disclosure documents of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, on November 29, JP Morgan Chase bought 20.723 million shares of H shares of Meituan at an average price of HK$149.1982 per share. .
Soochow Securities pointed out that the real-time retail industry is in the growth stage. It is optimistic that Meituan will enjoy the growth dividend as a leading platform. Due to industry growth and profitability greatly exceeding market consensus expectations, we maintain a "buy" rating.
2. Logistics and supply chain
9. Eternal Asia rose 2.93%, and was given a buy rating by 2 agencies. , Friday’s closing price was 5.97 yuan, up 2.93% in a week.
In the last 90 days, 2 institutions have rated Eternal Asia, and 2 have given a buy rating; the average target price of institutions in the past 90 days is 5.76. According to the financial report data of the past five years, the Securities Star valuation analysis tool shows that Eternal Asia (002183) has a good moat of competitiveness in the industry, poor profitability, and good revenue growth. There may be hidden financial worries, and the financial indicators that must be focused on include: interest-bearing asset-liability ratio , accounts receivable/profit rate. The stock has 2 stars for good company indicators, 2.5 stars for good price indicators, and 2 stars for comprehensive indicators.
10. Sinotrans rose 5.31%, leading the rise in the China-Europe freight train sector
Last week, Sinotrans’s stock price first fell and then rose. It opened at 4.03 yuan on Monday, fell 0.48% on Tuesday, fell 0.48% on Wednesday, rose 0.96% on Thursday, closed at 4.16 yuan on Friday, and rose 5.31% in a week.
Sinotrans announced that on December 5, 2022, it will spend approximately HK$6.78 million to repurchase 2.634 million shares of at a price of HK$2.5-2.62 per share. On that day, the China-Europe freight train sector rose by 3.29% compared with the previous trading day, led by Sinotrans.
3. International logistics companies
11. FedEx fell 5%, and its target price was lowered by JPMorgan analyst
Last week, FedEx’s stock price fell. It fell 0.21% to close at 172.33 yuan on Friday, down 5% in a week.
JPMorgan analyst Brian Ossenbeck lowered his price target on FedEx to $184 from $192 and maintained a Neutral rating on the stock. the analysisThe division had expected a softening of the peak freight season and a return to normal freight rates across the supply chain, but he said the situation had deteriorated faster than expected over the past three months.
He lowered the company's FY2023z222z and FY2024FY2z estimates by 9% and 8% for FY2024, noting that FedEx's guidance was revised down several times during the last global freight cycle. He is cautious about FedEx's upcoming fiscal second-quarter earnings report, as he expects to miss guidance for the current quarter and the outlook for the third quarter will be worse than consensus expectations.
12. Maersk fell 1.69%, warning that the strike in the UK will lead to serious interruption of the railway network
Last week, Maersk’s stock price rose and fell, generally stable. The opening price on Monday was $10.8, down 2.44% on Tuesday, down 0.1% on Wednesday, down 1.73% on Thursday, and finally closed at $10.5 on Friday, down 1.69% a week
There will be strikes on December 13, 14, 16, 17 and from Christmas Eve to December 27, with almost all of the rail network shut down.
Maersk issued a notice reminding that the strike will cause serious disruption to the entire UK railway network. It is working closely with rail freight operators every day to understand the impact the strike will have on inland operations, and to change and cancel shipping schedules in time Customers are notified by the service to minimize disruption to customers, and customers are advised to plan ahead to mitigate the impact on inbound cargo flow.
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editor: old eight