On November 8, local time, the 2022 US mid-term elections were held across the United States. 435 seats in the House of Representatives were re-elected, and 35 seats in the Senate were re-elected. In addition, 36 states hold gubernatorial elections. Judging from the current results, the Republican Party has a slight advantage in the election, and it is likely to gain control of the House of Representatives, which will bring the United States to a "divide-by-government" situation again.
1. Overall election results
As of November 11, Beijing time, the US mid-term elections are still slowly progressing. Due to close votes in key constituencies and some voting system failures, the counting of votes has been slower than expected and may not end until later in the week.
In the House of Representatives, the Republicans temporarily lead 209 to 192. Of the unsettled seats, Republicans lead with 14 votes. Therefore, the Republicans have a greater chance of winning the majority of the House of Representatives. In the Senate, the Republicans have a narrow 49-48 lead. However, in the unsettled seats, the Republican Party fell behind in the last two votes in the three states of Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, and it is not certain that they will gain control of the Senate. With neither party candidates winning more than half of the votes in Georgia, a second-round runoff will be held on December 6. The Democratic Party believes that if the domestic situation in the United States remains unchanged, the party has a better chance of winning this election. For governors, Democrats and Republicans each won 16 states. The Democrats flipped in Maryland and Massachusetts, keeping California, New York, Pennsylvania, and the Republicans, Texas and Florida.
This election presents five characteristics:
The number of early voters has increased. As of the eve of the election, more than 43.5 million Americans voted early. The number of early votes in the 2018 election was 39.1 million. This figure reflects the United States' increasing reliance on early voting in elections. Mail-in ballots and early weekend voting are new trends, adding to the complexity of the vote-counting process. Due to the different order in which the votes are recorded in each state, the election situation often fluctuates greatly during the voting process, making it more difficult to predict in advance. The
"red wave" did not appear. Before the election, the Republican Party was generally optimistic. The top Republicans believe that they will easily win in the House of Representatives and gain a large advantage; in the Senate, they will also have an impact on the Democratic seats in many states, possibly winning more than 53 seats. But in reality, the Republican Party's performance is far less than expected. In key states, John Fettman defeated Mohammad Oz in Pennsylvania to take a Republican-controlled Senate seat. The Republicans' advantage in the House of Representatives is also not obvious, or only a narrow majority in the end. Some groups of
achieved historic breakthroughs. In this election, 25-year-old Florida Democrat Maxwell Alejandro Frost won the first House seat for Gen Z (born after 1996); Maryland Governor Democrat Wes Moore Became the third black governor in U.S. history and the state's first African-American governor; Democrat Maura Healy became Massachusetts' first female and first openly gay governor; New York governor Democrat Kathy Hawker becomes New York State's first female governor.
Election spending is unprecedented. "Money is the breast milk of politics". This is especially true in American electoral politics. Total campaign spending for the 2022 election cycle will exceed $16.7 billion, breaking the previous record of $13.7 billion spent in the 2018 election, according to estimates by the U.S. campaign finance watchdog. Election spending for each Senate seat in key swing states including Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin amounted to between $200 million and $300 million. Democrats raised slightly more money than Republicans in congressional races. Fundraising for Democratic House candidates totaled $922 million and Republican House candidates totaled $890 million.
"Dark money surges". In addition to overt financial contributions, "dark money" that does not need to be disclosed to the Federal Election Commission has played an increasing role in U.S. elections in recent years. In the 2022 election cycle, a large amount of "dark money" poured into the election fundraising agencies of the two parties, which had a profound impact on the elections of the swing states. The main "dark money" recipient agencies of the two parties include the "American Action Network" (American Action Network) and One Nation, which are closely linked to the House Republican leadership, and aggressively attack incumbent Democratic senators in swing states. The Democratic Party is also supported by "dark money" organizations such as House Majority Forward and Majority Forward. According to media reports, dozens of conservative organizations invested more than $100 million in September for Republican senatorial candidates in seven swing states, mainly using "dark money" methods.
2. Reason analysis
The two parties in this election are evenly matched, and the competition is extremely fierce. Both parties have obvious shortcomings, so that although voters are enthusiastic to vote, they lack a clear direction.
On the Democratic side, the following factors have made it less likely to win than the 2020 election.
One is Biden Presidential approval rate is sluggish . The approval rating of an incumbent president is an important factor affecting the election of his party. Biden's approval rating has continued to decline since August 2021. In July 2022, Biden's approval rate dropped to a low of 37%, slightly rebounded to 42% before the election, and the disapproval rate was as high as 55%, which was a poor performance compared with the same period of recent presidents.
Second, the economic situation is not good. Voters often see economic issues as a "top priority." Although the Biden administration and Democrats have repeatedly emphasized that inflation is global and caused by multiple factors. However, the rise in prices is a personal feeling of ordinary people, and it is reasonable to attribute it to the ruling party. An October Pew Research Center poll found that 79 percent of registered voters said the economy was the top issue. In a CBS News poll, voters think Republican control of Congress will help the economy.
The third is the effect of redistricting. After the 2020 census, the new congressional districts are basically delineated. Since most of the state governments responsible for constituency redistricting are controlled by the Republican Party, the Republican Party has an overall advantage in this constituency redistricting, with an increase of about 5 favorable constituencies. The Republican Party's advantages in Texas and Florida are further solidified. The Democratic-led redistricting has been frequently blocked, and its redistricting plan in New York State was rejected by a state court.
Fourth is that electoral mobilization is less targeted than the Republican Party. Republican campaign strategy is better. In this election, the Republican Party firmly grasped the issues of people's livelihood such as inflation, economy, and crime, and concentrated its firepower to accuse Democrats of exacerbating price increases through large-scale spending, with remarkable results. According to relevant data, in the last month before the election, Republicans spent more than $50 million on inflation-related ads, and spent another $81 million on ads that focused on attacks on House Speaker Pelosi and Biden. The Democratic Party's campaign strategy is relatively traditional and moderate, focusing on social and cultural issues such as abortion rights, voting rights, and gun control, and has failed to effectively attract the support of middle voters. Democrats have mostly avoided attacking Trump , spending just $8 million on ads involving Trump.
Fifth is the financial power of the Republican "gold master". According to statistics, 18 of the 25 largest donors this cycle supported Republicans, spending $200 million more than Democratic "genders". Among them, the top 10 funders invested a total of 540 million US dollars, including Soros (128.5 million US dollars), Richard Ulein (80.7 million US dollars) and Kenneth Griffin (68.6 million US dollars) and others , these super-donors donate most of their funds to outside groups such as super PACs. Seven of the 10 donors belong to the Republican Party, and about 62% of their donations support Republicans. As of November, Republicans received far more support from big business groups than Democrats, a reversal from the 2020 election, when wealthy donors favored peopleDemocrats.
At the same time, the failure of the Republican Party to achieve the expected big victory also has its inevitable factors. In the above favorable environment, the Republican Party's mediocre performance indicates that there is a certain problem with its voter base and political appeal.
One is an increase in the backlash of the " Trump phenomenon ". The Republican Party adopted the "Trump without Trump" strategy in this election, that is, it will still spread hate politics, stimulate a sense of voter crisis, and attack the opponent's weak spots as the main political propaganda method. The strategy was effective in inciting dissatisfaction with Democrats, but failed to increase the enthusiasm of Republican voters themselves. The Republican Party has experienced "voters not going out" in many key constituencies, and the strategy's vote-inducing effect is not as effective as expected.
Second, the "abortion issue" has a certain effect. Democrats have made abortion the number one issue in their election campaign, spending more than $100 million on advocacy. The Republican Party did not respond and tried to hedge by exaggerating the issue of "criminal". The issue of abortion has little impact in Republican-dominated states, but it has shown its power in many key and swing states, which is obviously beneficial to Democratic politicians who are high-profile defenders of "abortion rights." In this election, 5 states in the United States voted to include the "abortion right" into the state constitution, and the division in the United States on this issue is more obvious and serious.
Three failed to win "incremental voter" support. Since both parties have adopted extremism tactics, both parties will mobilize the core voters of their own party as a priority goal. Therefore, the electoral will of the "incremental voters" in each election often determines the final wind direction. Judging from the exit poll by the US media , the Republican Party's performance among ethnic minorities and Generation Z voters is still worse than that of the Democratic Party, which makes it lack the ability to "get a foot in the door" in the close election. The ideas and electors of the Republican Party are out of touch with the times, and the risk of being "outdated" is increasing.
3. Main influences This mid-term election has important influences on American political ecology and society. The struggle between the two parties will become more intense, internal divisions will become more complex, and political polarization and political chaos will remain the main themes of US domestic politics for a period of time to come.
First, the situation of "divide and rule the government and council" has reappeared. The Republican-controlled House of Representatives will increase obstruction of Biden's administration. The Republican Party has previously been "grooming" to formulate its policy blueprints, such as Senate National Committee Chairman Rick Scott's "11-Point Plan to Save America", House Minority Leader McCarthy 's "Commitment to America" and Former Vice President Pence 's "Leading America's Freedom Agenda", etc. The Republican Party will seek to advance plans such as "repeal Biden's legislative achievements" and "cut government spending", and block Biden's "Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act", "Chip and Science Act" and "Inflation Reduction Act" through budget and debt restrictions. "Follow-up implementation. This strategy may bring about new "government shutdown" and "debt default" crises, the Republican Party will adopt "veto politics", Biden will be difficult to pass legislation in the next two years to promote major reforms, and his governance achievements will be significantly less than the first two years in power , reduced to a "lame duck". Democrats will primarily aim to preserve existing legislative achievements, or they will use executive privilege to roll out policies that target specific voters.
Second, the bipartisan battle will continue to intensify. The mid-term elections run through the fierce confrontation between the Biden administration and the Democrats and the Republican Party, especially the "pro-Trump" faction. The Republican Party continued to criticize the Democratic Party for "stealing the results of the 2020 election", while the Democratic Party increased its investigation of Trump's "Capitol Hill riots" and drove the Department of Justice to conduct "home raids" on the special " Mar-a-Lago ". McCarthy threatened to take a series of "revenge plans" after the Republicans regained the House of Representatives, such as the revocation of the Capitol Hill Investigation Committee, retaliation against the Department of Justice, and a comprehensive investigation into the Hunter Biden scandal, the Biden administration's immigration policy, etc. Even threatened to launch impeachment proceedings against Biden. The US media believes that after the election, the United States will usher in an "investigation season", when "investigations, hearings and subpoenas will become the main agenda."
The third is to make the 2024 election even more complicated. DemocracyOn the party side, the election result will affect Biden's 2024 election prospects. Although Biden himself has not announced his re-election bid, he has always emphasized that he is the only candidate who can defeat Trump. According to US media analysis, the Democratic Party is privately weighing other party nominees, including Vice President Harris, Transportation Secretary Buttigieg, and California Governor Newsom. Opinionally, the view that most Democratic voters and independents want "someone other than Biden" to run in the 2024 election may be more certain. On the Republican side, Trump announced the launch of his presidential campaign on November 15, trying to use the Republican victory in the House of Representatives to build momentum for himself. But the voices of the elites and some "financiers" in the Republican Party to seek other candidates are also growing stronger. DeSantis, the Republican governor of Florida, publicly broke with Trump in recent days. After the "test" of the election, the struggle between the "pro-specialist" faction and the "anti-specialist" faction in the Republican Party will become more obvious in the future.
Four is that the division of American society will further intensify. On the issue, the debate between "red states" and "blue states" around "culture war" issues such as abortion rights, voting rights, educational equality, gun control, and homosexuality will be more intense. In terms of social order, the phenomenon of political violence may intensify. According to , ABC, and other media reports, election workers across the United States continued to face threats of harassment during the election. "Time" magazine said that violence is deeply ingrained in American politics, and more political violence may occur after the election. In addition, federal and local centrifugal tendencies are elevated. Previously, Republican states such as Texas and Florida had fiercely confronted the Biden administration in areas such as voting rights, immigration, and education, exposing the governance disputes between the federal and local governments. After the election, Republican states may intensify their provocation against the federal government, and the federal system faces further tearing apart.
In terms of foreign policy, the U.S. foreign policy after the mid-term elections will generally maintain a greater continuity, but there are still variables in specific areas.
Ukraine crisis - In general, the two parties have a large consensus on the Ukraine issue. However, after the new Congress takes office, the US government will encounter greater resistance to aid to Ukraine. Most Republicans take a fiscally conservative stance, and they will be more cautious about government aid to Ukraine after they control Congress. A Republican senator said on the eve of the election that "after the Republican Party takes power, Ukraine will no longer give Ukraine a penny, and our country will come first." On the Democratic side, some lawmakers recently asked Biden to change his strategy in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and make active diplomatic efforts for "a negotiated settlement and ceasefire."
U.S.-European relations——Under the protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the U.S.-European relations after the election will face greater challenges. After the Republicans control the House of Representatives, they will continue to pressure the Biden administration to ask NATO allies to take on more defense responsibilities. The conservative Republican forces have a consensus with the European right-wing forces on border security, national identity, and minority rights, and the two forces may increase mutual support.
Asia-Pacific Policy - After is elected, the United States will continue to focus its strategy on the Asia-Pacific, and the Biden administration will continue to strengthen its alliance system and partnership in the Asia-Pacific, consolidate the "US-UK-Australia Trilateral Security Partnership" (AUKUS), the US-Japan Small multilateral mechanisms such as the India-Australia Quad, may also draw countries such as South Korea, New Zealand, and Vietnam into the group. In the economic field, the United States will continue to maintain its dominant position in the formulation of trade and technical rules, continue to promote the construction of the "Indo-Pacific Economic Framework" (IPEF), and build a value-based exclusive regional trade, production network and supply chain system. In terms of military security, the United States will continue to strengthen bilateral defense partnerships with allies and deepen military cooperation in multilateral fields.
's China policy - In view of the general consensus of the two parties on China policy, the general tone of the US's China policy will not change significantly after the election, and China still regards China as the "primary strategic competitor" and "the most severe geopolitics". Challenge". However, in recent years, the number of China-related proposals of Congressional Republicans has been significantly higher than that of Democrats, and their attitude towards China has also been more assertive. It is expected that the Republican Party will further strengthen its anti-China stance in the new Congress, in the fields of economy and trade, technology, human rights, ideology, and TaiwanPropose more anti-China bills. Extremely anti-China lawmakers such as Rubio will further boost anti-China public opinion at the federal and local levels. In the field of technology, congressional Republicans will further promote "technology decoupling" and may link the issue to ideology, human rights and other issues. If anti-China congressman Michael McCall takes over as chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, he will continue to push Congress to strengthen oversight of the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) under the U.S. Department of Commerce, asking the agency to issue a report on its recently released advanced computing chips, super The rules for computers and semiconductor manufacturing equipment provide licensing data designed to "protect U.S. technology from China." In terms of Taiwan, after the Republicans control the House of Representatives, they may include more radical provisions in the original House version in Taiwan-related legislation. It is worth noting that House Minority Leader McCarthy said recently that after the Republicans seize the House of Representatives, he will consolidate the jurisdiction of various House committees and set up a special committee dedicated to China to deal with the so-called "China challenge".
The original title "2022 US midterm elections: who is the winner?", the article comes from the public account " China Institute of Contemporary International Relations "