Direct News: German Chancellor Scholz has made it clear that he supports economic globalization, saying that "decoupling" is a completely wrong path, and Germany must trade with many countries, including China. How do you interpret this?
Special commentator Liu Heping: I think that Scholz's statement might not have attracted people's attention a few years ago, and even Scholz did not need to make such a statement. Because a few years ago, almost everyone believed that economic globalization and the world's major economies doing business with China were an irreversible trend. However, at the moment, this statement of Scholz has attracted widespread attention and extensive media coverage. People even think that it is still a good thing for Scholz to make such a statement under such a background and such a timing. It takes some courage. The reason behind this is that no one expected a few years ago that the ongoing wave of economic globalization would suddenly have a huge setback, or even a certain degree of reversal. When doing business in China, it depends on the face of the United States, and it will become "politically incorrect" in the eyes of some people in certain countries.
In my personal opinion, this wave of anti-globalization and "decoupling" from China, although it started with the trade war and technology war with China promoted by former US President Trump, has been driven by the willful Biden. The government has taken it to a new level, and even a very dangerous trend has emerged. Because although the Trump administration is the initiator of this wave of anti-globalization and "decoupling" from China, they adopted the method of letting the United States and China one-on-one. At that time, the trade between China and Europe and China and other countries in the Asia-Pacific region, Not affected and impacted.
And after Biden came to power, he turned the one-on-one behavior between China and the United States in the economic, trade and technological war into calling allies to "fight in groups" with China. On the one hand, in the "Indo-Pacific" region, the Biden administration stretched out its hands across the Pacific Ocean and launched the " Indo-Pacific Economic Framework " centered on restructuring the industrial chain to squeeze out China, and took it as the implementation of the " Indo-Pacific strategy" The core content of ”, on the other hand, the Biden administration stretched its hands across the Atlantic again, demanding that the EU choose a side to join the camp of economic containment of China, and make the China-EU investment agreement that was finally negotiated. The was shelved by the European side. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict that broke out six months ago has deepened the EU's dependence on the United States. Against this background, for some time, European countries have no longer dared to make a different voice from the United States on economic and trade issues with China.
It is in this situation that I think German Chancellor Scholz and EU Trade Commissioner Dombrovskis have both voiced their support for globalization and against "decoupling" from China. The "rebellion" against the United States, especially against the Biden administration, reflects their worries about the EU's excessive dependence on the United States and their desire to increase trade between China and the EU to solve the current economic difficulties faced by the EU.
Direct news: We have seen that German Chancellor Scholz and EU Trade Commissioner Dombrovskis made their support for globalization and their opposition to "decoupling" with China. Spokesman Mao Ning also gave a positive response. What do you think about this?
special commentator Liu Heping: I would like to remind everyone that the remarks by German Chancellor Scholz and EU Trade Commissioner Dombrovskis took place on October 11th, which happened to be China and Germany established diplomatic relations On the day of the 50th anniversary of , the leaders of China and Germany exchanged congratulatory messages for this. In the congratulatory message, China called on Germany to promote Sino-GermanThe azimuth strategic partnership has reached a new level, and German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier said that the economic and trade cooperation between Germany and China is in the interests of both sides. Prior to this, there was also unconfirmed news that German Chancellor Scholz might visit China in November. I think these all mean that the remarks of German Chancellor Scholz and EU Trade Commissioner Dombrovskis are a signal to China for further cooperation.
Moreover, I have noticed that China is also taking the initiative to fight against the unhealthy trend of de-globalization. All signs seem to show that the path of China's diplomatic strategy is like this. The first step is to re-impress and hold Germany with economic and trade relations. The second step is to use the improvement of Sino-German relations to leverage China. The improvement of relations with the EU, because Germany plays a pivotal role in the EU, the third step is to improve China-EU relations to counter the de-globalization promoted by the Biden administration and the wave of "decoupling" from China's economy and technology. Because the US and Europe share common ideology and values, and although Europe is increasingly reliant on the US for security, the two sides still have different interests at the economic level. This is a breakthrough point where China can once again leverage Sino-European relations and counter the US with the EU.
However, although German Chancellor Scholz and EU Trade Commissioner Dombrovskis both followed China's call and made a stand against the United States on the issue of economic globalization and "decoupling" from China, in the end Whether the relationship between China and the EU can get back on the right track along the path it has taken in the past will still face a series of challenges, because now the time has passed. First of all, the biggest difficulty still comes from the United States. I believe that the Biden administration will definitely intervene. And while the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is still going on, Europe's reliance on the United States for security has increased unabated. Neither Germany nor the European Union has the cost to challenge the United States as it used to be; secondly, after nearly two years of Biden The government's provocation and lobbying, the current right-wing forces in Europe are resurgent, they obviously regard ideology as more important than economic interests, especially the European Parliament is the stronghold of the right-wing forces, and it is they who have prevented the entry into force of the China-EU Investment Agreement ; Then there is the fact that this Russia-Ukraine conflict has deepened the rift within the European Union, that is, the Central and Eastern European countries and the traditional powers of the European Union, including Germany and France, and some Central and Eastern European countries have become more and more radical. , increasingly ideological, they may become a detrimental factor for the improvement of China-EU relations. Author of
Liu Heping, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV "Live Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan"
