On July 13, local time, former U.S. President Trump was shot during a campaign rally speech in Pennsylvania, and his right ear was bleeding. After hearing the gunshots, Secret Service personnel quickly surrounded Trump for protection and quickly took him off the stage. Trump late

On July 13, local time, former US President Trump was shot during a campaign rally speech in Pennsylvania, and his right ear was bleeding. After hearing the gunshots, Secret Service personnel quickly surrounded Trump for protection and quickly took him off the stage. Trump later stated on his social media platform, Truth Social, that he was currently safe, but was "hit by a bullet in his right ear" and was being examined by a medical institution. Currently, according to the latest news from the U.S. Secret Service, the gunman at the scene has been shot dead. One person in the audience was killed and two others were injured. The incident is being investigated as an assassination case.

At a time when Trump suddenly dominated the media headlines again, President Biden’s reaction also attracted attention. The White House first issued a statement on the incident, and then Biden's campaign team announced that it would suspend all Biden's subsequent outings and remove all TV campaign ads as soon as possible. Looking at it now, today’s “bloodshed” seems to be making Trump successful and pushing him to his “highlight moment” again, while the Democratic Party is even more dejected. Some analysts even believe that today’s incident has provided Biden with a "Steps to withdraw from the election."

▲ At the moment of the incident, the scene was in chaos

Shortly after the shooting, Biden could say It was the first time that an emergency press conference was held at the White House. His response to the incident was summarized in three points: first, expressing relief that Trump was safe and sound and expressing condolences to his family; second, stating that the cause of the incident was not yet clear and expressing gratitude to the Secret Service; third, , condemned the violence and said the United States should not have a "violent society."

Whether it is the act of issuing the statement itself or the specific content of the statement, Biden's response is considered to be futile. Although the confrontation with Trump is entering a "white-hot" period, as the president of the United States, in the face of major issues such as violence that endangers social security, he must always put the interests of all Americans first, partisan disputes and general elections. Winning and losing always come second. Therefore, this is the posture Biden should have.

However, this "official color" response seemed somewhat out of place, and also revealed the "sadness" of Biden and the Democratic Party. They know very well that this "accident" that only caused Trump to bleed but not die was like a blessing from heaven to his opponent, and it will definitely be used by Trump and the Republican Party to build momentum. It is obvious that judging from Trump's "on-the-spot performance" when he was attacked, he knows how to adapt to changes and take advantage of the situation. He first fell down instinctively and showed pain on his face. Then, under the escort of Secret Service personnel, he protruded from the center of the "human wall" surrounded by security. The blood flowed all over his face under the influence of the wind, and even scraped into his mouth. , he clenched his fists and raised his arms and shouted "fight" three times.

This is exactly the photo below, which was recorded by a lens that the public jokingly calls "aim more accurately than a marksmanship". From the perspective of journalism and communication, this photo is perfect. It means that when Americans face life and death, even if they are seriously injured, they must roar like a lion and persist in fighting tenaciously to complete their "mission" - can He said that this photo is enough to become a propaganda "poster" for Trump's future campaign after he "survives" this time. This also invisibly humiliated Biden again, who looked trembling, powerless and weak even in a peaceful state.

Sure enough, for Trump, who is a reality show star, his excellent "camera sense" is a plus for him, and it has achieved what he wanted. desired effect. After the "bloody incident", not only the people in the United States were deeply concerned about the candidate's situation, but the international community also focused on him. Former US President George W. Bush, Hungarian Prime Minister Orban, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, and Tesla CEO Elon Musk all paid immediate attention to Trump.

Biden’s statement was tepid. On the one hand, it was necessary for his duties. On the other hand, it can be seen that he hopes to avoid the escalation of the matter as much as possible. From the perspective of a candidate, he now needs to find ways to cool down the matter. However, at the same time, the Biden team's suspension of subsequent activities that require external appearances also reflects concerns about Biden's personal safety to some extent. In the eyes of Trump’s enthusiastic maga supporters, the suspect in this incident is likely to be a Biden supporter, if not Biden. It’s not surprising to think so. After all, Pennsylvania (where the accident occurred) is now a swing state and Biden’s hometown. Therefore, in order to avoid possible retaliation by Biden in the future, his team followed the principle of "do not sacrifice your life even if you lose" and chose stability.

▲ The audience at the scene of the incident in Pennsylvania

This shooting may be a "bitter ploy" directed and performed by Trump himself. Theoretically, this does not seem to be completely impossible. This can be explained from many aspects such as the current intense trend of the election, the nature and results of this incident, Trump's on-the-spot reaction and its subsequent impact. However, if you think about it carefully, some of the conditions that make this assumption true are not met. First of all, since the assassination of President Kennedy in 1963, with the development of technology and the improvement of processes, the security measures for important figures in the United States have gradually become systematic. It cannot be easily achieved by just one variable trying to control or break it. .

More importantly, if this is a play, then a key decisive factor is that the gunman's marksmanship must be flawless. The "ideal" aspect of the current actual result is that Trump was hit on his right ear, achieving the considerable shock effect that bleeding can cause, but not ending everything with direct death. If the "hired" gunman's sight is even a little bit to the left or right, there will be two results - either Trump will be unscathed, or it will cause disaster as it happened and directly hit the audience behind him. , then this will be regarded as another shooting incident in the United States, which will only cause a small splash in the media because it occurred at the presidential candidate's speech; or Trump will have no follow-up and will directly "go down in history."

Of these two results, the former will not be able to achieve the effect that is happening now, and the latter will directly end everything - for Trump, one is meaningless, and the other is extremely risky. From this point of view, it is unlikely that Trump will direct and act on his own. By the same token, the possibility of the Democratic Party taking charge of this matter is also very low. The real assassination death will not only intensify the already high-spirited enthusiasm of Trump supporters, but will also once again confirm Trump’s insistence that he is being persecuted by stubborn political forces. Many analysts also said that if Trump is really in trouble, the Republican Party may take advantage of the trend to introduce a new candidate to inherit Trump's mantle and continue to develop the election with the slogan of "continuing Trump's ideas and soul." This is also bad for Democrats. Of course, there is no need to delve into whether all this will happen.

Putting aside all speculation, what is certain is that the current situation is a blessing in disguise for Trump, and the Democratic Party has at least been crushed again in terms of momentum. The uncertainty of the US election is increasing - on the one hand, more and more analysts believe that Trump’s probability of winning is increasing; but on the other hand, polls show that the gap between Biden and Trump is wide. To narrow it down, taking the latest data from Bloomberg as an example, Biden's support rate against Trump is 45% and 47%. In some swing states such as Michigan and Wisconsin, Biden's support rate even exceeds Trump's.

Because of this, any subtle changes are easily considered to cause a "butterfly effect" and are amplified, making people always involuntarily guess "what impact this will have on the future direction of the election." ", let alone something as dramatic and volatile as an assassination. However, the unchanging answer is that the presidential debate a few weeks ago, which almost "embarrassed Biden globally", did not "lock in" Trump's victory, and neither will today's assassination.

A question that really deserves attention is why assassination is experiencing a "resurgence" in modern political civilization. Before Trump this time, some familiar names in recent years were still fresh in our minds, such as Lee Jae-myung and Abe. For the United States, the intensification of political party opposition and intensification of social conflicts have caused prejudice and injustice to block the channels of rationality and the rule of law, forcing extremist forces to resort to brutality and violence to express their hatred and their own political ideas. What we really need to be vigilant about in the future is the degradation of modern political civilization.