text | Mouyu
As the title says, the summer version that has been criticized so far, is not simply good or bad. A more accurate description is: chaos.
It is difficult to see such an unpredictable box office market again.
After breaking the Chinese New Year box office record with 8.016 billion during the Spring Festival, the box office performance in the first half of the year began to fall into a sustained downturn , with a total box office of 23.902 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.328 billion. It even started a historical reversal, losing to 2016.
However, just when you think that this year may start high but slow down, and the box office will continue to be sluggish due to the market environment, html’s Qingming Festival in April has once again set a new box office record for the same period in Chinese film history with a total box office of over 841 million yuan. Even with the subsequent May 1st release, ranked fourth in the history of the film with a total box office of 1.527 billion yuan, and the number of screenings set a new record in the history of the film.
So is this going to be better? No.
Because the subsequent June box office was only 2.23 billion, it became the lowest monthly box office in the first half of the year and the lowest June box office in the past ten years except during the epidemic year. Even during the epidemic in 2021 and 2022, the box office in June reached 2.103 billion and 1.92 billion respectively.
And this month is very special. June box office is usually regarded as a precursor to summer box office. This sluggish performance makes the market worried about the upcoming summer season.
was affected by this, and the distribution market was in chaos. July has just entered, and many movies have been scheduled for release. Among them, "Customs Front" has been moved from July 5 to June 28, " Silently Kills " has been moved from July 4 to July 3, and "Catch Baby" has been moved forward from July 18. July 16th.
There is also an episode. On July 3, " Wild Child " starring Wang Junkai announced that it would be released on July 10. News of the upgrade is made public in the morning, and announcement of withdrawal is made in the evening. The rapid changes of show that the issuers are also in a state of confusion, and uncertainty has taken over the market.
In an uncertain market, we have an even more urgent need to use some definite news to clarify the situation of the 2024 summer season.
"Who is on the summer schedule?"
"Who is on the summer schedule?" Fang Xiewen's words are particularly suitable for audiences to ask questions to theaters.
When China has gone through the blockbuster era and the IP era, the word "Han Tengliang" has been shouted from 2020 to today, which undoubtedly shows that when has no new indicators as reference standards, the influence of personal IP is once again regarded by the market. A key indicator.
Not only the box office results of "Jia Ling" and "Han Han" during the Spring Festival at the beginning of the year can prove this, but also when the summer movie " catches the baby " was released this year, many netizens expressed two opinions in the comment area of the trailer " I don’t know what the trailer is about” and “I want to see it co-starring Shen Teng and Ma Li.” It can also be seen that personal IP has great appeal to the box office.
In addition to Shen Teng and Ma Li, there are two other filmmakers with this kind of box office influence in the 2024 summer season: Chen Sicheng and Wu Ershan. The four people represent the works respectively "Catch the Baby", "Under the Stranger", and "Decryption".
Let's analyze these three works in detail:
"Catch a Baby" starring Shen Teng and Ma Li is undoubtedly the most sudden and competitive player in the entire summer season. The biggest selling point of the entire movie is simple: Shen Teng and Ma Li co-starred.
The two comedians collaborated together again after a long absence. According to Shen Teng's performance in the film market in recent years, it can be said that almost all of the films he starred in have become hits, with only two exceptions: " Super Family " in 2023 and " All Over the World" in 2022. ", but Shen Teng is not the first protagonist in these two films. Ma Li also has good popularity with the public, and the audience has been waiting for the two to get together for a long time. Therefore, the film industry has unprecedented expectations for the box office prospects of "Catch the Baby", which is expected to reach 2.4 billion-3 billion. The only thing the market is worried about is the quality of the film.However, the directors who collaborated with the two actors are Yan Fei and Peng Damo. The previous works directed by these two directors were "Charlotte " and "The Richest Man in Xihong City ", which are among the most popular happy twist comedy movies. Popular with the public. In the trailer, the concealment of the plot content also reflects the confidence of the creative team to another extent.
Compared with Shen Teng and Ma Li, director Wu Ershan is a representative of "Fengshen" in 2023. At present, the biggest dilemma of the movie version of "Under the Stranger" is the difference with the drama version.
For film and television works developed by IP like this, referring to Marvel movies, we can easily find that in addition to the quality of the film itself, there is a detail worthy of attention, which is "casting". The actor's character image should be consistent with the original IP, and the same development should be carried out, and the same actor should be used to star in all series of film and television works.
But now, the problem with "Under the Stranger" is that too many film and television versions have been developed. With the film version directed by Wu Ershan, there are currently three film and television versions.
Previously, the drama version starring Peng Yuchang had a good reputation and the character image has been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. Wu Ershan is also famous for his good casting in "Feng Shen", so in the promotional section of "Under the Stranger", the audience's discussion topic has been occupied by "resemblance".
This has also become the biggest uncertainty point of this movie: After all, the audience is already familiar with the plot, and casting will basically become an important factor affecting the movie's box office and reputation.
Chen Sicheng, unlike the aforementioned filmmakers, his success stems more from the market's recognition of his past achievements. As a director and producer, he has made outstanding contributions in films such as "Chinatown Detective", "Manslaughter" and "The Disappearance of Her". The new film "Decryption" is adapted from the Mai family's novel of the same name, focusing on the mathematical genius Rong Jinzhen's code-breaking journey. The film combines elements of suspense and espionage. The trailer has revealed its potential as an "audiovisual blockbuster" and is expected to become a blockbuster film in the summer. The addition of photography master Cao Yu adds to the excitement of the film. At the same time, the new look of "Bald Liu Haoran" also sparked social topics, driving the attention of "Decryption" to soar. The Baidu index surged by more than 400%, and it became a hot search on multiple social platforms.
theater water heating, short video prophet
In addition to the influence of personal IP, another place where box office trends can be indirectly observed in recent years is on the short video platform.
reviewed past film and television works, and the "North Burma Fraud" in "All or Nothing" made the movie popular; the "Proton Casting" in "The Legend of the Gods Part 1" and the "Parent-Child Education" in "30,000 Miles from Chang'an" made the movie popular After the screening, I turned around; the "realism" of "She Disappeared" made the movie popular from beginning to end.
In current movie promotions, short videos can cut in at any suitable time and affect the movie box office, as long as the distributor can accurately capture the emotional points of the audience.
But there are two difficulties: first, judging from the plots of the current summer movies, most of the works do not have such an emotional explosion point; second, the current audience’s aesthetic, emotional, and cognitive The changes are rapid, making it difficult for the issuer to accurately control.
Compared with short plays, film production cycle is long, and it relies more on "touch" to grasp the audience's emotions. It is very possible that the doctrine that young people agreed with most one year ago has become the representative of the old one a year later.
From this point of view, Xu Zheng’s masterpiece "Retrograde Life" obviously suffered a little loss. Regarding "I went to deliver food after optimization in middle age", whether it is a "midlife crisis" or "being algorithmized" "Trapped delivery boy" is hardly a topic in today's society.
On the contrary, "Silent Kill" combined suspense and "school bullying" plot, successfully captured the attention of the audience, social media topics and word-of-mouth quickly fermented, the box office on the first day exceeded 30 million, topping the box office list for the day, and achieved box office success the next day. Bucking the decline, the Douban score also reached 6.9, showing strong market performance.
