text | Mouyu
During the May Day holiday, the film market will stage another "fight".
As of press time, 1 movies have been scheduled for the May Day holiday , covering multiple genres such as action, suspense, comedy, animation, etc. They are particularly active and have given the market more expectations for the May Day release.
In an environment where the movie market continues to recover, the national movie box office in the first quarter of 2024 totaled 16.356 billion yuan, an increase of 3.13% over the same period last year. Entering the second quarter, the three-day box office revenue during the Qingming Festival was 818.9 million yuan, once again Set a new record.
Can the upcoming May Day period continue the good trend of the second quarter and bring new surprises to the film market and audiences?
May 1st Movies’ Tactics
This year’s May 1st Movies are most appropriately described as having many and mixed . Both the quantity and the themes are far higher than the same period last year.
Mou Entertainment has sorted out the 11 movies that have been officially announced for May Day, and they mainly show the following characteristics:
First, there are rich subject types . Compared with the Spring Festival release of "Comedy is King" and the imported films that have taken away attention In the Qingming Festival, the May 1st schedule is mainly composed of domestic films of various types, showing a hundred flowers blooming;
The second is the blowout of animated films . Among the 11 films that have been scheduled, 4 animated films account for 36%. This situation is very rare in previous movie schedules, and the domestic animation market is gradually recovering;
Third, waist movies are concentrated , and the only one that can be called a commercial blockbuster on May 1st is " Peacekeeping Riot Squad ", which is a niche theme Waist films account for the majority. Relatively speaking, the audience range is not wide enough and there is a lack of large-scale productions.
Looking at the entire May Day program, the audience has a relatively wide range of choices, and the diversification of choices will also promote box office growth to a certain extent.
From a market perspective, the highlights are mainly concentrated in the following aspects:
The first highlight is the competition between imported animation and domestic animation , Hayao Miyazaki PK light animation, the time has come to test Chinese comics.
" Howl's Moving Castle " is the work of Hayao Miyazaki in 2004. The 20th anniversary restored version will be released on May Day this year. Whether it is for the movie itself or for the feelings, there will definitely be audiences who will pay for it. Currently, Maoyan thinks The number of viewers ranked first.
and " Xiaoqian " is the first film of the "Chinese Mythical Universe" project developed and created by Ray Animation since its establishment in 2022, and it is also highly anticipated.
One is a world-renowned animation master. The new movie " What kind of life do you want to live " has just won the Qingming Festival box office championship, and the box office appeal still exists; the other is Ray Animation, which represents the highest animation level in the country, and produced " Nezha: The Devil Boy Comes into the World " created a prosperous era of Chinese comics. You can imagine how fierce this competition is.
In addition, " Spy Play House Codename: Bai " also has a fighting force. The number of people who want to watch Maoyan ranks third among the 11 movies. Relatively speaking, " Pigman Movie·Interstellar Action " "The main audience of "The Movie" is concentrated on teenagers and children. The current online data is difficult to reflect the specific popularity. It may usher in a box office explosion after it is released.
The second highlight is the competition among movies of the same type.
May 1st action movies account for a large proportion, and the competition will definitely become more intense. The advantage of "Peacekeeping Riot Squad" is that it has popular star Wang Yibo and a huge fan base. The box office performance in the early stage will definitely be better, and it will be better in the later stage. Whether it can continue to work depends on the quality of the movie
and " Kowloon Walled City: The Siege " inherits the style of classic action Hong Kong movies, and the actors are relatively well-known, but the problem is that the influence of Hong Kong movies and Hong Kong stars is gradually declining. Whether the glory of Hong Kong films can be restored is still unknown.
" Nothing Can't Be Solved by a Hot Pot " and " Thelma and Louise " are the only two comedy movies on the May Day schedule, and they are bound to form a relatively fierce confrontation. Judging from the current Maoyan data, The two movies are locked in a tight battle between first-day box office and the number of people who want to see it.
11 movies gathered together to stage " title sea tactics ", which to a certain extent is indeed conducive to the rise of the overall ticket warehouse. However, a series of problems such as market overcrowding, limited space, and external environmental influences still exist. The May 1st box office results Hidden worries.
Hidden worries about the May 1st tranche
Objectively speaking, the May 1st tranche can only be regarded as a mid-range tranche, and the market space is limited.
The performance of the May Day holiday in 2023 was not outstanding. The total box office of movies during the five-day holiday exceeded 1.5 billion yuan. As the first May Day holiday after the epidemic, the box office was not even as good as the same period in 2021, which was affected by the epidemic.
To be honest, it is not optimistic whether this year's May Day can hit a new box office record and bring greater surprises to the market.
On the one hand, the May Day holiday is facing a massive diversion from the tourism industry and offline performances.
Compared with holidays such as Qingming Festival and Dragon Boat Festival, people are more inclined to travel during the May Day holiday in the first half of the year, especially since "revenge tourism" appeared after the epidemic. According to Xinhua News Agency, the number of tourists nationwide during the May Day holiday in 2023 will reach 274 million times, which is the total number of people traveling during the Tomb Sweeping Day and Dragon Boat Festival in 2023.
This data is expected to hit a new high on May Day this year. Qunar data shows that since April 6, the single-day booking volume of air tickets in popular cities during the May Day holiday has exceeded the same period in 2023. This year also ushered in the "outbound travel" "Hot", the number of people applying for visas during the May Day holiday increased by more than 30% year-on-year.
At the same time, May Day offline performances will also reach their peak. Currently, more than 30 music festivals have officially announced that Jacky Cheung, Aaron Kwok, Times Youth League, Hua Chenyu, Ren Xianqi and many other singers will hold concerts on May Day.
There is no doubt that the popularity of tourism and offline performances will inevitably squeeze the movie market , thereby affecting box office growth.
On the other hand, the 11 movies scheduled for May Day by themselves lack in terms of content and popularity.
As mentioned above, one of the obvious features of this year’s May Day program is the absence of in head movies. They are mainly small and medium-sized movies. This undoubtedly gives more opportunities for waist movies, but it cannot avoid the existence of . The market does not move.
is currently less than half a month away from the May 1st release. It has entered an intensive publicity period and marketing materials are also being released one after another. However, the current effect is average and the popularity has not reached expectations, which has led to some difficulties in the film market. Signs of cold.
The relatively popular "Peace Keeping Riot Squad" and "Nothing That Can't Be Solved by a Hot Pot" are both because of the support of popular celebrities. The former has been backlogged for three years and has experienced a relatively large actor controversy, while the latter has gone from launch to completion. With only 20 days left, everyone's expectations for Wang Yibo and Yang Mi are higher than the movie itself.
The "sea of titles tactic" may be able to prevent this year's May Day movie box office performance from being mediocre. However, the impact of the external environment and the film itself has limited the market growth space, and it is difficult to reach new heights.
May 1st, a period that is not taken seriously
As a long holiday after the Spring Festival and National Day, why is it difficult for May 1st to create box office surprises?
Whether it is the external market environment or internal film quality, the factors that affect the box office boil down to the fact that the leading film and television companies do not pay enough attention to the May 1st film .
Objectively speaking, ’s May 1st release is indeed in an embarrassing situation, sandwiched between the Spring Festival release and the summer release. Leading film and television companies actually tend to postpone the release of leading movies to the summer release. On the one hand, the schedule is longer and the profit duration is extended. On the other hand, there are more young audiences and a huge group of moviegoers.
In addition, the holidays in the first half of the year are relatively intensive, including Spring Festival, Tomb Sweeping Day, May Day, Dragon Boat Festival, and even Valentine’s Day. Too much concentration of popular dates leads to market saturation and audience fatigue.
Therefore, in the May 1st release of this year, the participation of leading film and television companies is not high . Except for "Xiao Qian" of Enlight, Wanda, China Film, Happy Twist, Huayi Brothers, Bona, etc. do not have main projection films. .Among the three films that
participated in, Lian Rui has "The Siege of Kowloon Walled City", China Film has "Thelma and Louise" and "Rescue", and Wanda has "Peacekeeping and Anti-Riot Squad". Relatively speaking, China Film and Wanda are in The presence in the May Day movie distribution business is even higher.
As the "mainstay" of the film market, leading film and television companies play a role in activating the market and can, to a large extent, inject more confidence into the audience, the market and even related practitioners.
The collective absence of leading film and television companies in May 1st has given more opportunities to small-production and small-scale films, but to a certain extent, it will also lead to the market being too flat. There is currently a lack of enthusiasm in the film market. The effect of preheating is mediocre.
At present, the presence of the May Day holiday is indeed slightly weaker, but it will not completely become a cold period. For the film market, there is still a lot of room for development during the five-day holiday.
But the question is, how to develop May Day stalls to attract more viewers to enter the cinema during the May Day holiday?
As the film market's "schedule dependence" becomes more and more serious, leading companies are relatively conservative and prefer Spring Festival, summer and National Day schedules. The difference between May Day schedules and popular schedules lies in the lack of one feature element.
For example, watch family comedies during the Spring Festival, mainstream blockbusters during the National Day, and animated movies during the summer. creates schedule characteristics and film features based on the audience group, further cultivates the audience's viewing habits , and guides more viewers to enter the theater.
But there is no doubt that schedule characteristics take a long time to develop, and it is difficult to achieve in the short term. It requires the joint efforts of the entire film market.
