2022 is about to pass, and 2023 is coming.
Looking back at the real estate market this year, the real estate industry is undoubtedly another "magic" year. Under the influence of multiple unexpected factors, the industry has shown characteristics such as a sharp drop in market sales, debt defaults of many companies, and urban investment supporting the land market.
The real estate market has also spawned ten keywords such as "real estate is a pillar industry, guaranteed housing, support for rigid and improved housing needs, land auction support, 16 financial measures, and three arrows", which explain how much this year has been. The real estate market is full of joys and sorrows.
Next, we will feel and understand the changes in the property market in 2022 from these keywords, and savor carefully what the property market has experienced in this year?
Next, we will focus on interpreting the key words of the 2022 property market, "Loan interest rates drop".
The mainstream interest rate of first-home loans in many cities has dropped to below 4%
In 2022, it is believed that many home buyers will find that the mortgage interest rates in their cities have been lowered. According to the Financial Associated Press, as of December 18, the mainstream interest rate for first-home loans in 19 cities within the monitoring scope of an agency has dropped below 4.0%, including 6 cities in second-tier cities and 13 cities in third- and fourth-tier cities. In terms of the first set of mainstream interest rates, only nine cities including first-tier cities were higher than 4.1% in December; in terms of the second set of mainstream interest rates, only Beijing, Shanghai, Xiamen and Xi'an were higher than 4.9%. In terms of interest rate changes, only the first-home loan interest rates in Zhuzhou, Beihai and Haikou were adjusted in December. Among them, the mainstream interest rate of first-home loans in Zhuzhou was lowered to 3.7%, a drop of 40BP.
In terms of city lines, the first-tier cities have the highest housing loan interest rates, with an average of 4.60% for the first housing and 5.13% for the second housing, which is the same as last month. The first-tier interest rates in the second-tier and third-tier and fourth-tier cities are 4.07% on average. In terms of interest rate cuts, the third- and fourth-tier cities saw the largest year-on-year decline in housing loan interest rates, with the first and second sets of interest rates falling by 164BP and 107BP respectively. The year-on-year decline in mortgage interest rates in first-tier cities was the smallest, and the first and second sets of interest rates fell by only 69BP and 62BP year-on-year.
The average mortgage interest rate in mainstream cities across the country has dropped significantly this year. According to the monitoring data of the housing loan interest rates in 42 key cities across the country in November by the Rong360 Digital Technology Research Institute, the average interest rate of the first home has dropped by 140BP this year, and the cumulative decline in the interest rate of the second home loan has reached 90BP.
The interest rate of housing provident fund is the lowest in history
On September 30, 2022, the People's Bank of China decided to adjust the interest rate of personal housing provident fund loans from October 1, 2022, and lower the interest rate of the first set of personal housing provident fund loans by 0.15 percentage points. At that time, the central bank stipulated that the housing provident fund loans issued before October 1, 2022 will be adjusted to the latest interest rate standards from January 1, 2023.
According to Times Finance, in June this year, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the Ministry of Finance, and the People's Bank of China jointly released the "National Housing Provident Fund 2021 Annual Report". Housing loans were 1,396.422 billion yuan. As of the end of 2021, a total of 42.3471 million housing provident fund personal housing loans and 12.530281 billion yuan have been issued, an increase of 7.91% and 12.54% respectively over the end of the previous year.
The "Report" also mentioned that the housing provident fund personal housing loan interest rate is 1.05-1.4 percentage points lower than the loan market quotation rate (LPR) of the same period. The interest expense is about 307.54 billion yuan, and the average interest expense for each loan can be saved by about 99,100 yuan.
It is reported that the last time the central bank adjusted the provident fund interest rate was in 2015. On August 26, 2015, the central bank lowered the interest rate for loans with a term of less than 5 years (including 5 years) from 3% to 2.75%, and the interest rate for loans with a term of more than 5 years from 3.5% to 3.25%.
"The current interest rate level of 3.1% for loans with more than 5 years is indeed the lowest level of provident fund loan interest rate in history." Bai Wenxi, vice chairman of China Enterprise Capital Alliance and chief economist of IPG China, pointed out to Times Finance. In Bai Wenxi's view, this is actually related to the fact that the counter-cyclical adjustment of commercial loan LPR has entered a long-term downward channel.