image source @直视中国
文丨New Culture Business, author丨Wu Xiaoqiong, editor丨Amy Wang
Since Disney streaming media Disney+ was officially launched on November 12, and the streaming media war began to heat up in November. The biggest thing to watch is undoubtedly how Disney's streaming platform will impact Netflix's dominance. According to
data, the Disney+ service attracted 10 million subscribers within a day of its launch in North America, a speed that exceeded many analysts' expectations.
On November 18, analysts at Credit Suisse Financial Services Co., Ltd. published a report in "Variety" that Disney+'s average trend judgment on Netflix usage has "almost no impact." This judgment temporarily stabilized Netflix's stock price and the hearts of shareholders. Shares of Netflix rose 1.3 percent to $314.40 late Friday, rebounding from earlier losses. The stock ended the year up 16%.
The key point is that the data used to support this conclusion comes from third-party Sensor Tower app downloads and Google search data, not any internal Disney+ or Netflix numbers.
According to the Sensor Tower application download data, the cumulative installed capacity of Disney+ was 4 million on November 12, the first day of launch, and decreased to about 1.5 million per day during the weekend of November 16-17, while the Netflix application Downloads were unchanged. For Netflix, average daily downloads topped 70,000, which is in line with Disney+'s first week of availability. While obviously 1.5 million and 4 million are much better than 70,000 downloads, there's no doubt that the Disney+ app download rate will drop as the weeks go by and the buzz around this new offering will significantly weaken.
's early results support Netflix's contention that many competitors have room to grow, and that new competitors' success won't come at the expense of diverting its membership. CEO Reed Hastings (Reed Hastings) said that most of the subscribers who pay for Disney+ are transitioning from cable and satellite TV packages, and they are not necessarily the ones Netflix canceled.
Disney+ has been online for 10 days. In the early days of its launch, Netflix and related spokespersons could not effectively predict the impact of the centralized launch of Apple TV+, Disney+, and Warner Streaming Media at the end of the year. However, it will take time for Disney+ to become a competitive competitor to Netflix.
Disney+ must overcome technical difficulties.
New Culture Business reporters also tried to log in to Disney+ to experience it. After opening Disney+, the page shows that if you are interested, you can get a free 7-day trial qualification, and after 7 days, you will have to pay a monthly membership fee of $7, and this qualification is open to Netflix for 30 days.
At present, the content in Disney+ is very scarce. In the trial version of the Netherlands, there are only 4 movies released on November 12, namely: "Captain Marvel", "Thor: The Dark World", "Iron Man" and "Iron Man" 3". Avengers: Endgame will be available in late December.
However, the server crashed on the first day of Disney+'s launch, which also captured the headlines of major media and suffered a lot of shame.
Some users who downloaded Disney's new streaming service for the first time received error messages on their screens that read "Unable to connect." The message appears below the words "Wreck-It Ralph," before forcing the user to log out of the service and prompting to try relinking later. ,
users reported service problems on Twitter early Tuesday morning. Many said a technical error was being shown to them, while others said they were having trouble searching the App Store for the Disney+ app. According to the US website Downdetector, as of 7:00 a.m. ET, there were about 7,300 DiscosNi + problem reports are user feedback.
On the first day of the experience, New Culture Business reporters also encountered similar technical problems, and they only logged in normally the next day. A
Disney+ spokesperson immediately said the company was quickly addressing the outage. "Consumer demand for Disney+ has exceeded our highest expectations. While we are pleased with this incredible response, we understand current user issues and are working to resolve them quickly. Thank you for your patience. "
But Disney+'s launch day woes don't appear to be limited to download technical glitches. Some users who pre-ordered the service in Puerto Rico, Canada and elsewhere saw a prompt stating "Disney+ is only available in certain regions. Depending on your location, you may not be able to access Disney+."
In fact, Disney appears to have delayed the launch of Disney+ in Puerto Rico. Disney launched "generally available in the U.S." on Nov. 12, before launching in Puerto Rico, New Zealand and Australia on Nov. 19. At the same time, tens of thousands of newly registered subscription accounts have also been hacked and resold. An account can be bought online for as little as $3, and the cheapest monthly fee for Disney+ is $7.
On the one hand, Disney has obviously adopted a more stringent approach than Netflix in terms of copyright and IP address restrictions; Global users download, and it still takes time to build a technology city, which is much weaker than Netflix and Apple, which were originally technology companies.
Despite the awkward start, Disney+ still cannot be underestimated
Even though Netflix’s installed capacity has increased by 4% from last week, some analysts believe that considering Netflix has been around for quite a long time, Disney+’s first week of downloads is actually not bad . That said, it's not time for Netflix execs to party with shareholders just yet.
At present, in addition to existing streaming media such as Hulu, Amazon, and CBS All Access, in addition to Disney taking the lead and Apple’s arrows on the show, HBO Max and Peacock have not yet joined the battle. The streaming media war has just begun. It is still not a foregone conclusion.
What is certain is that Netflix is the biggest target, and the final market share will still be divided, but it is just a question of how much it will be divided.
As far as Disney is concerned, as long as it has money, it will pass the technical level sooner or later. The core weight of the future streaming media war is content, a steady stream of exclusive content, blockbuster content and top-level content. At this point, no company in the world can surpass Disney, including Netflix.
In fact, Netflix has long been preparing content ammunition for the challenge. The first is to continue to increase content costs. Even though the financial report for the first three quarters of 2019 shows that Netflix’s cash flow is not ideal, it still plans to invest more than US$20 billion in content in 2020, with the goal of transitioning from a platform-based company to a platform-vertical hybrid company. Not only do streaming media, but also become a film company like the Big Five. For example, signing a filmmaker like Scorsese, Netflix is very willing to take risks, which is something most major studios will not do. And these gold medal producers hired with a lot of money will also bring great help to Netflix's self-produced dramas, so as to fight against Disney.
Disney acquired Hulu's bundle through the acquisition of Fox , which is a very favorable competitive advantage. Moreover, it holds many super IPs such as Star Wars, Marvel, and Fox, as well as the exclusive copyright of many contents produced by Disney, which is difficult for Netflix to match.
"Star Wars" Baby Yoda
And Matt Brodley, the original film executive who won "Roma" and won three Oscars for Netflix, joined Disney+ in June to be responsible for the international business development of Disney+, which is undoubtedly It is also a typical event of content competition between the two sides.
Morgan Stanley analyst Benjamin Swinburne predicts 2024, Disney+ will gain 130 million global users from the three major streaming platforms Disney+, ESPN+ and Hulu.
He believes that Disney's brand benefits and original content advantages can help its streaming media business quickly surpass Netflix. Especially in the US market, Netflix already has the problem of user growth bottlenecks. Netflix will reach about 79 million U.S. subscribers by 2024, while Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+ are expected to attract about 95 million subscribers. Consumers are ready to spend about $15 billion to $20 billion a year on Disney-branded programming, Benjamin estimates. For more exciting content from
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