The long-awaited "full liberalization" has really come. On December 26, the National Health and Medical Commission issued the "Notice on Printing and Distributing the Overall Plan for the Implementation of "Class B and B Control" for New Coronavirus Infections", announcing that From January 8, 2023, the new coronavirus infection will be removed from the "Class B" "A Pipe" is adjusted to "Class B Pipe".
Category A and Category B are the classifications of infectious diseases in my country's " Law on the Prevention and Control of Infectious Diseases". AIDS, rabies, tuberculosis, etc. all belong to Class B infectious diseases. Infectious diseases like are usually easy to control or not fatal.
In the past, the new crown has always been a Class B infectious disease, but it is managed according to Class A, which shows that the country attaches great importance to it. After being adjusted to "Category B", the discovery and management methods of the source of infection of the new coronavirus will be changed. For example, people infected with the new coronavirus will no longer be isolated, and close contacts will no longer be judged. The detection strategies such as nucleic acid and antigens will be adjusted to " Willing to do all the inspections" and so on.
All pharmaceutical industry chains surrounding the new crown epidemic in the past will be dismantled and reorganized, and the pharmaceutical industry affected by due to epidemic prevention and control will also face new opportunities.
New crown vaccine , is it still necessary to get it?
On December 14, the National Health and Medical Commission just decided to start the "fourth shot" of the new crown vaccine.
The latest "Notice on the Implementation of the Second Dose of New Coronavirus Vaccine Booster Immunization" proposes that on the basis of the first dose of booster immunization, can infect high-risk groups, the elderly over 60 years old, and people with serious underlying diseases. The second dose of booster immunization, also known as the "fourth dose", is carried out in the diseased and immunocompromised population.
However, the recent epidemic has shaken many people's confidence in vaccines. Although the virus strain has weakened and the mortality rate of infected people has been greatly reduced, there are still many infected people other than the elderly who are at high risk given the large base population in China. At the same time, my country has received a total of more than 3.4 billion doses of the new crown vaccine, and the vaccination rate of people over 3 years old has exceeded 90%. From a realistic point of view, the high vaccination rate of the vaccine does not seem to block the virus infection.
The National Health Commission has never disclosed specific infection information. However, summarizing the information from various places, this round of infection in Beijing and Sichuan has the highest proportion of infection, both of which have exceeded 50%. The spread of the virus in many areas is still accelerating and has not yet reached its peak. On December 17, Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said at the annual meeting of " Finance and Economics" that the infection rate of the epidemic this winter is estimated to be 10% to 30%.
Many people wonder: Since the vaccine cannot avoid infection, and the severe and fatal rates are generally not high, do we still need to continue to receive the fourth shot, or even regularly vaccinate against the new crown vaccine?
The "Overall Plan for Class B and B Administration" clearly states that should further increase the vaccination rate of the elderly new coronavirus vaccine , and promote the second dose of booster immunization among the severe and high-risk groups. According to the deployment, all localities should carefully organize the implementation, optimize the service form, and continue to do a good job in the vaccination of the elderly against the new crown virus.
China has been promoting the vaccination of the new crown vaccine based on the principle of "voluntary vaccination". But in practice, vaccination is often associated with participating in large-scale events. In the future, "Class B and B tubes" will continue to advance, and the binding force of strengthened needles and "fourth needles" may also be adjusted accordingly, and will no longer be linked to public behavior.
Many companies developing new crown vaccines may face the situation that vaccines are rarely used.
Innovative drugs, or will benefit from the payment side
Be bound together with the new crown vaccine, there is also a question of funding.
The United States has decided to change the original free supply of vaccines to individual burdens starting in 2023. China's current vaccination rate exceeds 90%. Will the new crown vaccine be "normalized" in the future? Should pay for it at its own expense? This may affect the fate of the entire pharmaceutical industry.
In April this year, the National Medical Insurance Bureau disclosed data that 3.2 billion doses of vaccines had been administered in China, and the cost of vaccines reached more than 120 billion yuan. In 2019, when the epidemic was not disturbed, the total expenditure on medical insurance was 2 trillion yuan. In other words, The expenditure on the new crown vaccine in the past two years accounts for about 3% of the total medical insurance expenditure on average every year.
The medical insurance fund is not made of iron. Beginning in 2018, the country implemented a pilot program of centralized drug procurement. The intensity of centralized procurement has been strengthened year by year. By 2021, the National Medical Insurance Administration has organized three batches of centralized procurement of drugs, making it the year with the most concentrated procurement frequency. The results of
centralized procurement are obvious to all. In February this year, the National Medical Insurance Administration stated that the cost savings of centralized procurement by the state has exceeded 260 billion yuan.
In addition, the medical insurance price negotiation that was attempted in 2015 has also firmly stuck the throat of innovative pharmaceutical companies. In 2021, the overall success rate of medical insurance negotiations exceeded 80.3% for the first time, and "soul bargaining" was once out of the circle. In June of this year, the Bureau of Medical Insurance released the "2021 Statistical Bulletin on the Development of National Medical Security Businesses", stating that through negotiation of price cuts and reimbursement of medical insurance, a total of 149.49 billion yuan will be reduced for patients during the year.
The price of medical insurance is so aggressively bargained. In addition to solving the old problem of difficult and expensive medical treatment, the epidemic prevention and control expenditure is also a large part. On the one hand, the medical insurance fund has to guarantee normal medical services, and on the other hand, it has to deal with the epidemic situation, so the efforts to save money from various aspects are also great. 2021 is an important year to pay for the epidemic, and the centralized procurement and medical insurance negotiations will naturally do their best to ensure that there will be no gaps in the medical insurance fund .
Nowadays, the new crown virus infection downgrade means that many resources may be reallocated.
Under the outbreak of the epidemic, the country always needs to consider the health protection of the whole people, which indirectly affects the largest payment terminal in the pharmaceutical industry and leads to the overall decline of the pharmaceutical industry. Even the innovative drug industry will sink in confidence under the impact of 2021. Right now, everything is turning around. The money that should have been spent on people’s health, will support the development of innovative drugs and innovative medical devices more vigorously.
Relevant companies should be aware of this.
撰稿 | 烟酰胺
编辑｜江芸 贾亭
运营 | 廿十三
插图｜视觉中国
