文丨 Years
The Spring Festival in 2023 will come earlier than before. The good news is that with the weakening of the virus and the State Council’s “Twenty Points” and other policies, the fireworks and prosperity of the past will return. This is great news for the Spring Festival gift-giving market. Enterprises and dealers feel that the Spring Festival gift-giving market is coming back.
So, can it be predicted that the Spring Festival gift box consumption in 2023 will be sold out again? What preparations should manufacturers and distributors make?
Spring Festival sales
Let’s make a conclusion that the Spring Festival sales in 2023 will not run away. But the overall volume will be slightly worse than the 2021 Spring Festival. Therefore, if the manufacturer sets a sales target, the reasonable data is 110% of the task reserves for the Spring Festival in 2021.
why? Because, in the Spring Festival of 2021, basically all manufacturers are sold out of stock, and the sales volume of the Spring Festival in 2023 can be maintained at the level of the Spring Festival in 2021. It is no problem to maintain 10 points, that is, the actual sales volume will be the same as that in 2021 (but the actual sales volume in 2021 Spring Festival sales in 2021 will be better than the stocking situation in 2021).
Why do we say that the Spring Festival in 2023 is slightly worse than the Spring Festival in 2021?
First of all, the economic situation in 2022 is actually divided into two stages. The income of bottom-level workers and middle-level entrepreneurs will decrease, while the income of higher-level groups will not be ideal, but it will not affect their spending power. Because of the blockade in various places, many people's income this year is not as good as before the Spring Festival in 2021.
Although the national lockdown will be longer in 2020, everyone’s income should be lower. But consumers actually have more money at their disposal than in 2022. In the Spring Festival of 2021, everyone spent the money earned in 2020 and before. At that time, the money everyone really lost was the months of lockdown. In other times, various places spent a lot of money to stimulate the resumption of work. Workers from all over the country are returning to work. Moreover, before 2020, the overall situation is on the rise. Although housing loans and car loans remain unchanged, most manual workers, whose houses are in a sinking market, basically have no car loans or housing loans.
Although, in 2020, many manual laborers will basically not return to their jobs, because they don’t have much working time and have to do farm work at home. Everyone is optimistic about the future as a whole, and the Spring Festival in 2020 has not been a good one for everyone. Therefore, in the year of 2020, everyone's consumption power has not declined, and it has greatly stimulated the economic growth of the sinking market, and even caused many companies to misjudge that the sinking market will still grow at a high speed in the future, and the sinking market needs to be increased market input.
Affected by the high growth of inventory for the Spring Festival in 2020, many dealers do not have enough stock for the Spring Festival in 2021. In fact, the Mid-Autumn Festival gift-giving atmosphere in 2020 has already come up, which also indicates the big sales of the Spring Festival in 2021. It's just that dealers are more conservative and have no clear analysis and grasp of market conditions, which leads to missing this opportunity in vain.
During the Spring Festival of 2022, dealers made another misjudgment, that is, they relaunched counterfeit products. Because although the Spring Festival in 2021 is a big hit, the profits of dealers are not particularly good, and the profits of big manufacturers are those.
What about the gift-giving atmosphere for the Spring Festival in 2023?
Let’s talk about the disadvantages first. The disadvantage is that most of our fast-moving consumer goods gift boxes are basically low-level workers. We didn’t say we look down on anyone. After all, they are the real “parents” of our fast-moving consumer goods industry . The lower the workers, the more people feel the atmosphere of the Spring Festival, and the demand for visiting relatives and friends will be more. Relatives get closer as they go. In the past, everyone often went out to work for a period of time, and basically met each other during the Dragon Boat Festival and Mid-Autumn Festival, and the Spring Festival was a big meeting. The sense of atmosphere is still important, and the ceremony must have more styles.It gave us a huge opportunity for gift box consumption. It's just that everyone's income has been greatly affected this year, not just this year, but the income in the past two or three years has not been very good. It is unrealistic to ask everyone to buy gift boxes for consumption in the Spring Festival of 2021.
Secondly, the urban policy of the areas where the "big bosses" give gifts is not clear. We all know that the "big leaders" of gift-giving are Henan, Anhui, Shandong, Hebei, and coastal Fujian. However, among these cities, Fujian’s policies are relatively advancing with the times. Basically, there will be no fewer gatherings during the Chinese New Year. Their business comes more from foreign trade, and there is demand for FMCG products, but the demand for FMCG products as a whole not tall. For example, they give gifts like Red Bull , Want Want, and more commonly, milk. The types of gifts are slightly limited, and they will not give four gifts, six gifts, eight gifts, etc. like the Central Plains. The overall market in Fujian has not changed much. Everyone can follow the previous policies. It is not easy to develop more.
In these cities with a lot of gifts, up to now, the sinking markets in Henan are still "strictly guarding against" returnees from Zhengzhou and Shijiazhuang. Policies vary from place to place. We believe that during the Spring Festival, the city is unimpeded, and the province is slightly unimpeded, but people who return from other places either return early, or basically wait and see and never come back. Because, if you really haven't made any money, it's better to wait for the policy to improve completely and endure the momentary anger.
Finally, there are many counterfeit products and counterfeit factories in these areas, but all distributors have their own sales lines, and even open some production lines by themselves, and cooperate with some distributor partners to do some marginal business. Although the current logistics policy is not clear, it is generally convenient for this province, and the products produced will be easily transported to place. Distributor partners will "gamble" and make some counterfeit products to make up their own profits.
6zThe current product strategy is mainly based on "big", "red" and "low" for enterprises. The so-called big means that the product packaging should be large; the so-called red means that the main color should be red and festive as much as possible; the low means that the price should be as low as possible.
You can extract one or two boxes of the previous products and fill them up with others, keeping the size of the package unchanged, but the price should be lowered. In 2023, there will be more such demands. During the Spring Festival in 2021, gift boxes around 50-65 used to occupy a considerable amount of the main force. In 2023, it should be reduced as much as possible. As for the niche products of some online products, cookies are basically not the main force of gift giving in various parts of Henan, and should be kept as few as possible. Do iron box packaging, carton packaging is fine. The most "big" gifts are drinks (including eight-treasure porridge) and milk. As for dairy products, such as the Nutrition Express of Wahaha , if the price can be guaranteed, it can be compared with the profits of various levels, but relatively speaking, AD calcium milk is actually not as good as Nutrition Express.
There is still time to prepare the packaging materials of various companies, because the gifts in Henan, Anhui, Hebei and other places are mostly based on the quantity. In fact, if you change your product specifications, it is a new product. The gift-giving areas do not look at what the product is selling. , but look at the product category. For example, the "gifts" of Wanglaoji and Jiaduobao in these areas are two products. Similarly, your 24-pack products and your 12-pack products can also be different products, the most important thing is whether your price is within the range accepted by everyone. For this reason, each manufacturer can change the usual main packaging and change it into a product with a suitable price.
Because the current epidemic prevention policies in these areas are unclear, manufacturers have to spend a lot of time on transportation; of course, this time is also needed to find a foundry, although this time is very urgent, the advantage of finding a foundry is that it is convenient for transportation. The most important thing is that you can reduce dealers to find OEMs to produce counterfeit products, and eliminate competing products for your own products. It is also necessary to encourage dealers to pick up their own products to reduce transportation costs. As for the gift-giving area, try not to formulate too strict regulations on cross-selling, otherwise there will be "phishing law enforcement". Now, it is a chess game for the overall situation of the enterprise, and consumption in gift boxes can be slightly relaxed.
For the business of manufacturers, mainly does two things now. One is to help dealers organize various order meetings, regardless of size, as many as possible. After all, the business of dealers has not been easy to do in the past two years, and the customers at all levels below are not easy to do. Whoever can grab more money will have a larger share of the company in this wave. Compared with the uncertainty of previous years, the future economy should be positive. At this time, terminals that have not closed down and dealers that have not run away are worthy of trust at all levels. Therefore, as long as the epidemic prevention policies of various places allow it, the simplest and crude way of ordering is still feasible.
The second thing is to find all kinds of front positions. Not only Internet companies have this concept, but also FMCG companies. Make all kinds of advances and transfer the goods to the first sales battlefield instead of pressing them in your third-tier (dealer) warehouse. This will reduce the pressure on the dealers and increase their willingness to pay back.
The Chinese New Year is very close, and now various companies can start to create a gift-giving atmosphere. In the market, they need to do all kinds of three-in-one Spring Festival promotion from space to ground. The slogan of gift-giving has been shouted, and various gift-giving "passwords" also need to be figured out.
Some ready-to-drink companies can actually do some CNY promotions for ready-to-drink and gift giving. For example, Nongfu Spring is vigorously promoting its own Nongfu Orchard gift consumption, and other companies can also deploy consumption scenarios such as catering.
For dealers, should they make some counterfeit products this year? In fact, risks still exist. If the investment is less than 200,000 yuan, you can do some snack food, but try not to touch drinks, because there are too many types and the pressure of competition is too great. In fact, everyone has come together these years. Although the profits of first-line brands are not high, it is enough to guarantee sales and after-sales.
Finally, I hope everything goes well, and the gift box consumption market is getting better and better.
