The Ukrainian war may be the most influential war on the world since WWII.
Times have really changed, friends. Is
good or bad for the world? Is
a crisis or an opportunity for China?
and watch the author take it slow.
-
The global energy pattern will change
As we all know, EU is very dependent on Russian natural gas, but to what extent, you may not have a clear concept.
There are four main natural gas pipelines from Russia to Europe:
1. Beixi No. 1 (annual gas transmission of 50 billion cubic meters)
- Progress pipeline (annual gas transmission of 26.5 billion cubic meters)
- Union pipeline (annual gas transmission of 26 billion cubic meters) )
- brother pipeline (annual gas transmission of 100 billion cubic meters)
(schematic diagram of Russian-European natural gas pipeline)
in which "Brother Pipeline" and "Progress Pipeline" transit Ukraine (the names of these two pipelines are ironic now)
War I In addition to the Western sanctions against Russia, Putin waved his hand, except for the normal gas supply in the previously signed contract, other natural gas is not going to leave the country at all.
Guess how big the EU's gas gap is now?
170 billion cubic meters
is equivalent to China's total national gas consumption in 2020.
Can the US fill in such a big gap?
(According to the British "Financial Times" report, the EU will cut Russia's natural gas imports by two-thirds within a year)
Sorry, the US in 2022 expects the annual natural gas production to be 117 billion cubic meters, all for Europe Not enough, not to mention, only China and South Korea can build large LNG cargo ships for to transport natural gas. Even if the United States starts to mobilize all ships to transport natural gas to Europe, the cost of alone will be 8 yuan per cubic meter.
In capitalist countries, gas companies will not do charity work, The common people in Europe are very aware of this, so the British have even started picking up branches and wood to get through this winter.
What are the follow-up effects of the energy shortage?
- Due to the outbreak of the war, the price of crude oil has exceeded US$100/barrel, and the price of natural gas is also skyrocketing, which will inevitably make inflation in Europe and the United States continue to take off, making economic recovery even more difficult.
("Stable and Upward" Natural Gas Futures Prices )
- If the US does not want to see inflation spiraling out of control due to skyrocketing energy prices, must coordinate with other energy exporting countries to increase exports and control oil and gas prices.
- At present, it seems that Venezuela, Libya, and Iran cannot increase energy exports due to US sanctions or civil strife. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have clearly rejected the request of the United States to increase production. In the long run, it is difficult to prevent the skyrocketing energy prices. .
- On the surface, the United States and the oil-producing countries in the Middle East will benefit from the increase in oil prices. In fact, the benefits of energy exports cannot offset the adverse effects of high inflation. The United States has released 60 million barrels of oil reserves, with little success.
Of course, the other way is to lift the oil sanctions on Iran to fill the gap in Russia, which is what the EU wants to see most at present, the Iran nuclear deal negotiation has entered the eighth round, and there is great hope for success, Middle East There may be peace that has been rare in decades.
- If the United States replaces Russia's position in the international energy market in this crisis, its "energy discourse power" will be significantly improved, and China, as the world's largest energySource importing country, it is difficult to have an impact on crude oil futures prices (refer to the crude oil treasure incident) and the hostility of the United States to China, the game of the buyer/seller market may enter a white-hot stage, and China has increased its interest in the Mekong River. The development of water resources, to reduce the dependence on imported energy, the energy revolution will accelerate. (Nuclear fusion can't wait any longer)
2
The issue of food security is more prominent
Russia and Ukraine are both important food exporters.
Ukraine is one of the three largest black soil distribution areas in the world, and Russia is the world's largest exporter of wheat.
Ukraine exported 25 million tons of wheat last year. Not long ago, Zelensky announced a ban on wheat exports. The price of
international futures spring wheat doubled on the same day.
(wheat futures prices have taken off)
Chinese companies have contracted one-tenth of Ukraine's arable land, and this part of the harvest is in jeopardy.
According to the current situation of war between the two sides, Ukraine may not be able to sow a new batch of spring wheat in April, and it is difficult to find convenient export channels for Russian grain.
can move the whole body, and the prices of edible oil and corn have also started to rise.
The price of sunflower oil in German supermarkets has exceeded 140 euros/10 liters, is discounted to RMB 982.8 yuan/10 liters , can you imagine ?
(Empty shelves in German supermarkets, edible oil has also been snapped up)
Many people do not understand what the skyrocketing food price means, and it is not just a matter of increasing the cost of living.
give a few examples:
In 2020, Japan's food self-sufficiency rate is 39%; South Korea's food self-sufficiency rate is 44%, and most of their food is imported from Australia and the United States.
, as a servant country of the United States, can't buy from Russia even if the food price skyrockets.
Of course, there are also many countries that have to import food from the United States at high prices.
If the world's food gap is 20%, The ending is not that everyone eats 8 minutes to be full , if it is so ideal, no one in the world will starve to death.
In fact, food prices will rise until 20% of people can't afford it.
May I ask how many countries in the world that cannot provide food themselves have enough funds to grab food from developed countries such as Britain, Japan, South Korea, and Germany?
Rich countries are still like this, what about poor countries?
(the food self-sufficiency rate of major countries in the world, China is 95%)
India will starve to death about 9.5 million people every year, but India will export more than 10 million tons of rice every year. Is
magical? In the face of interests , regardless of the life and death of their own people, who will be an international philanthropist?
Do you know why China has arable land red line ? Does
know why Yuan Longping's grandfather is the pillar of country ?
If China's food self-sufficiency rate is the same as that of Japan and South Korea, how can the words " start from strength "?
Food is the lifeblood, it's been so long since we've experienced a famine, it's hard to imagine what an apocalyptic scenario would be.
There are still 700 million hungry people around the world every year, and they are with us, not on Mars. The author of
is not a virgin, but I just want to say that is grateful to the motherland for giving its people the most basic guarantees, so they don't have to look at people's faces when it comes to eating, and kneel down to be a dog.
3
The further impact of the current economic situation
We can talk about this topicLet's start with " people ". Before the outbreak of the new crown in 2020, a group of people in the United States sold their stocks in advance, avoiding tens of billions of dollars in losses.
On April 17, 2020, the then U.S. President Trump was asked at a press conference: " Did your family sell stocks before the U.S. stock market plummeted? "
understand Wang replied: " This question is disgusting I don’t understand why you ask this. ”
Beginning in 2013, Li Ka-shing began to sell mainland real estate and obtained about 400 billion yuan of liquidity. In the following years, invested this money into ’s infrastructure in the UK , including subway, natural gas, power generation, water supply and other projects. Later, with the "Amendment" incident in Hong Kong, Li Ka-shing abandoned his Chinese nationality and immigrated to the United Kingdom.
At the beginning of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Ukrainian rich people ran away one after another. Among the top 100 rich people, 96 ran away. The owner of the Premier League Liverpool Club is one of them.
Afterwards, the scythe of the comprehensive Western sanctions fell, how could these sturdy leeks fall, these people who submitted their names to Europe and the United States were cut to tears, and they had to kneel down and sing conquest. They are really clowns.
(Yangma's comment level is high)
Li Ka-shing obviously smelled the crisis. On March 11, the old man fled back to Hong Kong from Great Britain. Natural gas supply and 6.8% of municipal water supply, these assets have all been sold, no wonder the London " Times " exclaimed: " he is going to run away! My dear friend is his own, but the British seem to be reluctant to bear him.
From Trump to Li Ka-shing, they are the spokespersons of capital, and capital will always have the sharpest sense of smell.
, as the root of all evil - Li Ka-shing, a pioneer who bought land without building a house, hoarded land and waited for price increases, and inventor of the common area, Li Ka-shing, who chose to return to China from the UK at this critical moment, can see the economic situation in Europe Not optimistic.
Next, I will talk about it from the perspective of the supply chain.
Energy and food are not mentioned, the previous article has made it very clear.
Semiconductor industry:
Speaking of semiconductor , the general impression of Chinese people on domestic products is: shortcomings and weaknesses.
In fact, China is also an indispensable part of the global semiconductor industry. Which link is
?
- raw materials
Russia, Ukraine and China are the top three countries for key chemical gases in semiconductor production hexafluorobutadiene (C4F6) and neon, Among them, Ukraine produces a quarter of the global total One of the , chipmakers could be the worst affected if supplies from Ukraine are severely hampered for an extended period of time.
Due to the blockage of neon purchase channels , China is now almost the only country that can provide neon resources stably, It is reported that the ex-factory price of domestic neon gas has risen by 17 times, Korea even has companies protesting this, but unfortunately it is useless, Because China's neon gas is now in a state of "hard to find a can", you can't buy this group of sticks.
Auto industry:
The aftermath of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict also includes the supply of palladium for upstream components in the auto industry - catalytic converters (used to reduce harmful emissions from cars) and semiconductors, and nickel for batteries Supply has become a problem; and mainstream international auto parts suppliers such as Bosch (Bosch) and Aptiv have factories in the border area of western Ukraine and Poland , and is now facing a shutdown.
(the most outrageousThe thing is, due to rising prices, some people abroad have begun to steal this thing - catalytic converter)
It is foreseeable that the production of traditional fuel vehicles will be relatively less affected, and the production of new energy vehicles , especially batteries, may be affected. greater impact.
4
's impact on the international monetary system
If the war can end in about two months, it will do more good than harm to consolidate the status of the dollar. Europe will be hit the hardest. dollars flow back to the United States.
US dollar is the main settlement currency. In the face of constantly rising oil and food prices, the higher the price, the more US dollars other countries need, and the status of the US dollar will be improved in disguise, but it is impossible at this time.
If the war lasts for less than half a year, the pressure of high oil prices, high food prices and high inflation in the United States will also increase. They must control their own domestic inflation pressure by harvesting other countries. But this is not a solution that can be solved by hundreds of millions or billions of dollars. The problem of harvesting China is obviously a fantasy now, so it can only continue to harvest the EU. In this case, the euro will continue to fall, and other currencies will fill this gap, and the RMB and the US dollar will inevitably occur. "friction".
(Euro exchange rate has continued to fall since the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine)
If the war lasts for more than half a year or more, the possibility of dollar hegemony falling to the altar will greatly increase. The United States wants the world to pay the bill and use Middle East oil, China's industrial products, and future carbon emission rights as the anchor for the dollar, why ?
The author believes that as long as China cannot be harvested by Biden and the EU's oil and water are drained, the United States will want a ceasefire more than Ukraine.
5
International arms market
We can see that in this conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the weapons of the Russian army fully exposed the shortcomings of insufficient information.
For example, in order to ensure the accuracy of air strikes, fighter jets, due to the lack of precision-guided air-to-ground missiles, often approach flying and dive bombs, which greatly increases the chance of Ukraine’s anti-aircraft firepower to counterattack. Many advanced fighters and excellent pilots have been lost, which will make people suspicious of Russian-made fighters. combat power.
(the "Dagger" hypersonic missile carried by the MiG 31 belly)
The "Dagger" hypersonic missile used by the Russian army not long ago, This is the product of "archaeological research" in the Soviet design drawing , as The treasure of the town, can't sell to the outside world.
In the current international arms market, Russia accounts for about 21% of the market share, , and the proportion of is decreasing year by year.
(the United States and Russia are still the main arms exporting countries)
In addition to the reason why the modern combat capability of weapons and equipment is gradually lagging behind, there is also a very important reason that The United States will sanction countries that purchase Russian weapons.
At present, the only countries that can buy Russian-made arms under the threat of sanctions are only a few countries such as India. However, the performance of the Russian army in the Russian-Ukrainian war this time may make some Indian officials lose confidence.
In the long run, in the conventional weapons equipment, the competitiveness of the Russian-made equipment is definitely declining, and the gives other countries the opportunity to expand their market share in the international arms market, especially China.
Because of all the weapons currently sold in the United States, China almost has products that can match the performance and are cheaper.
must know that weapon production is almost a purely consumption industry for a country, and it is good for the entire industry to return blood through the arms trade, which can form a virtuous circle, so China should seize opportunities like .
Six
The situation in Taiwan Strait
This is probably a topic that many people are most concerned about, presumably everyone has done itAfter a lot of conjectures, the author will not discuss the grand strategy for now, but only briefly talk about the lessons or experiences that China can learn from this Russia-Ukraine conflict.
- A quick solution cannot be given to the Taiwan authorities to create a "human shield". If one day there is a war between the two sides of the strait, it must be the result of the Taiwan authorities' perverse actions and the provocation of the United States. This is a legitimate war to regain territory. and Russia and Ukraine The conflict is of a different nature.
But we can see that the reason why Putin did not target Zelensky's head at the beginning of the war was that he wanted to unite the relatively rational masses as much as possible and did not want to turn a local conflict into a full-scale war. To prevent the Russian army from attacking, he resorted to very unscrupulous means. He did not hesitate to put some heavy weapons and equipment in the urban area, and used the lives of civilians as shields.
Although this approach is morally disgusting, it is really effective. Because in Putin's eyes, Ukraine is a lost brother. The United States has seen this and has been encouraging the Cai authorities to adopt the so-called "hedgehog tactics". This is what we mean, we must not give them enough reaction time to use this trick.
- blocked communications and quickly demilitarized.
In the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, if you only read the news from the western media, would think that the Ukrainian army will march into Moscow tomorrow. The
battle report will deceive people, but the battle line will not. Everyone knows the truth of , but how many people will study the battle line? The vast majority of people still know the situation of the war through some news.
Let me list some fake news about the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
The woman injured by the gas explosion in 2018 (top) actually became a victim of the 2022 Russian-Ukrainian war (bottom)
The two are actually the same person The so-called American frontline reporter "Bernie Gore", who "died" three times at different times and in different places - was in Beirut, Lebanon in August 2020, Kabul, Afghanistan in August 2021, and Kyiv, Ukraine in February 2022. "Dead" to go. However, he is not dead, his real name is Jody Jordan, a famous gamer on YouTube)
See, it's so outrageous.
If Taiwan is recaptured by force, we cannot control how the Western media will report it, but some people with ulterior motives on the island must find a way to control the spread of rumors. It is not shameful at all for technological means to gain a certain advantage in the war of public opinion.
wrote in the last
a little distressed for the children born in the 20s. The thickness of the modern history textbooks you use may set a historical record, and each of us, , will become the witnesses of the new era.
The decline of the United States in this century and China's return to the center stage of the world is basically a foregone conclusion. The pursuit is not zero-sum game , not lying flat and rotten, but star sea! The author hopes that China can firmly move towards its goal, even if the road is difficult and difficult, how can it be said that there is no clothes? People are strong if they are not confused, and the country is hopeful if not confused!