text | Zhou Rui
As early as a week before the official start of the National Day file, the capital market film and television stocks floated: Happy Blue Ocean, Wentou Holdings, Shanghai Film, Huayi Brothers, Light Media, Beijing Culture, Huace Film and Television, etc. Stocks have risen. At that time, public opinion predicted that the National Day A-share market might usher in "spring." As of today (October 2), the "Gifts to the Big Three" in the movie market ("Me and My Motherland", "Climber", and "Captain of China" have accumulated more than 2.2 billion box offices, and the film and television stocks have experienced ups and downs.
September 30 Three gift films were released at the same time. The professional version of Maoyan shows that on the eve of the release, the first-day box office of the three films exceeded 100 million, with a cumulative total of more than 469 million. On the day of the release, the box office of the movie reached 663 million, and the market level rose to the Spring Festival. , The Big Three’s market share reached 99.7%, the annual box office gap narrowed, and the box office market is ready to go. On the day of National Day (October 1), the box office of
reached 792 million, setting a record for the highest single-day box office record in the history of Chinese films in non-Chinese New Year. With the excitement of the 70th anniversary military parade and fireworks show, the box office popularity of the gift-giving giants in the film market will obviously continue to increase.
According to the lighthouse professional version data, the average total box office forecast of the three movies by various media is less than one week There have been changes in the past. The average forecast of "Me and My Motherland" (hereinafter referred to as "My Motherland") reached 3.135 billion, "Captain China" was 1.949 billion, and "The Climber" was 1.158 billion, and the cumulative forecast exceeded 6.2 billion. Among them, the box office forecast of "My Motherland" has increased sharply, while the forecast value of "The Climber" has fallen relatively.
In the A-share market, film and television companies are also in different situations due to the trend of movie box office. Shanghai movies that rose a week ago, On the day when the main production film "The Climber" was released, it fell sharply, with a 10% limit. Happy Blue Ocean, Light Media, and Chinese Films also followed the decline. Jinyi Films, Wanda Films, and Hengdian Films rose. Obviously, three There are nearly a hundred film and television companies hidden behind the gift films, but there are still a few that can really get capital and box office dividends. The three films of
compete for the National Day file, and the word-of-mouth winners win the world?
As of writing time, three gift films "My Motherland" completed the lead in China, with a cumulative box office of 1.016 billion in the three days it was released, and the highest percentage of films in the same period reached 38.8%, an increase of about 4% from the first day of release. "Captain China" ranked second with a cumulative box office of 7.80 The percentage of platooned films reached 32.1%, and the platooned films also showed a growth state. Among the three movies, the most obvious lagging trend is "The Climber". The cumulative box office of the same period was 442 million, and the percentage of platooned films dropped from 32.3% on the first day to 19.4%.
(The movie "The Climber" was released on three days. The filming changes)
Obviously, the theater has made a certain choice. As the momentum of "My Motherland" and "Captain of China" rises, the theater will originally bet on "The Climber" The space on the body is divided between the first two and the new film during the schedule-the animated film "Snowman" made by Oriental DreamWorks and American DreamWorks on National Day, was released with a Douban score of 9.5 and a cat's eye score of 9.4. 8.7%, now down to 4.5%.
according to the size of the movie and the previous announcement, the three gift films may not be the same. "My Motherland" From the release of various pre-screening trailers and behind-the-scenes documentaries, Faye Wong’s theme song and other materials, to the crew’s roadshow chorus, and the continuous publicity of the behind-the-scenes creator, plus the grand atmosphere of the 70th anniversary celebration, the film content and the public have reached the historical gift film Unprecedented empathy effect and audience coverage.
"Chinese Captain" took a different approach, contracted aviation, and attracted public attention with a real high-altitude premiere. Related short videos created by Zhang Hanyu, Zhang Tianai, Li Qin, etc., and Reuters also gained popularity on Douyin, Weibo and other platforms.
"The Climber" has innate public opinion attention due to the leading roles of Wu Jing, Zhang Ziyi, Zhang Yi, Hu Ge, Jing Boran, etc. The various interactions created in the road show are also quickly generated by fans. The combination of Wu Jing and Zhang Yi forms a "translation in Beijing" Joke stalks and star-chasing stalks such as "at first sight" and "surprise in foreign languages" have invisibly increased the film exposure and spread rate.
According to the lighthouse popcorn data, one day before the show, the three movies are evenly matched in terms of want-to-watch popularity, Weibo popularity, and search popularity.
However, the time scale is expanded. From 60 days before the screening to 1 day before the screening, the popcorn index of "My Motherland" is in a relatively leading state.This is related to the movie content and the extremely large creative team. From the director to the actors, 7 stories spanning 70 years, whether it is from the celebrity director effect, the star cast or the content topic, "My Motherland" matches the National Day 70 At the time of the anniversary, it reached the level of "a universal reward", and the pre-sale box office also took the lead.
But this lead is obviously not the only reason for the current box office gap. After the three movies were released at the same time, Douban scored on the same day. "My Motherland" reached 8.2 points (currently floating to 8.1 points), "Captain China" scored 7.4 points (now 7.2 points), and "Climber" scored 7.0 points (6.9 points) ). Throughout the National Day files over the years, this result can be regarded as one of the strongest film word-of-mouth files. The tri-power competition has created a box office carnival, and the gap in word-of-mouth has made the cake cut. "My Motherland" took the lead in gaining a word-of-mouth advantage. It received word-of-mouth blessings in the first two days of the schedule. It successfully escaped the curse of many blockbuster movies that "dive when opening points" and the box office bonus was extended.
"Chinese Captain" and "The Climber" have been criticized by the public to varying degrees in terms of film narration and plot arrangement, but like the barrel theory, water always flows from the shortest board first, "The Climber" Its lagging reputation makes its box office trend relatively sluggish.
90+ film and television company, National Day became the main battlefield of Bona and Ali
. The impact of large-scale and hot movies has never been only in the box office of the movie. The box office trend is derived from the capital market, which directly affects the stock price reaction of the film and television company behind it.
According to incomplete statistics, minus recurring companies, there are more than 90 film and television companies involved in the production and distribution of the three gift films. The main producers behind "My Motherland" are Huaxia Films, Bona Pictures, and Alibaba Pictures. The co-producers include Light Ray, Wanda, Tencent Pictures, Xinli Media, Huayi Brothers, Bad Monkey, Zhen Le Dao, etc. , This is a "gift" created by the power of the industry. It does not ask for the main vote, but the focus is on participation.
The main producer of "Captain China" is similar to "My Motherland". Bona and Alibaba Pictures appear as fixed partners. The co-producers include Wanda and others. Dengfeng International, Beijing Culture, Wanda, Huayi Brothers, Ali Pictures, etc. In the National Day file of
, Bona and Ali Pictures are the main players. As one of the traditional film and television giants, Bona has been targeting the National Day files from the 2016 "Mekong River Action", the "Chasing the Dragon" launched in the National Day files in 2017, and the "Wushuang" and "Shadow" launched in 2018. At the same time, Bona focuses on high-reputation main melody movies. The 2018 Spring Festival file "Operation Red Sea" became Bona's new masterpiece after "Operation Mekong".
In 2019, when the performance of film and television companies is declining and the market lacks headline movies, film companies such as Huayi Brothers, Wanda Pictures, and Beijing Culture have adopted the strategy of "casting the net and catching more fish" in the face of the long period. Survive only with the hot money, it is certainly ideal to be able to control the hot money, but if not, the first thing to do is to bet a few more quasi hot money. Bona is one of the few traditional giants with high output during the high gear period this year.
As an Internet film company, Alibaba Pictures also has a typical Internet thinking model. Cooperating with traditional movie giants to enlarge the plate is far less risky than being a "lone hero." This thinking is always implemented, whether it is the "China Pride Trilogy" series cooperating with Bona or the "Jincheng Joint Production Plan" launched independently, "co-production" is the key word of Ali Pictures.
Now that the pros and cons of the film producers and the casters have emerged, the day before the National Day holiday, the stock price of Jinyi Films rose by 7.87%, Wanda Films, Hengdian Films, and Tangde Films all rose more than 3%, while Happy Blue Ocean and Guangguang Media Movies, Chinese movies, etc. all fell, Beijing Culture dropped 6.67%, and Shanghai Movies were in a state of falling limit. Ali Pictures today (October 2) bucked the trend and rose by 3.15%.
There is still a period of time during the National Day holiday. There is still room for growth in the box office of movies. The stock market is closed and the stock price of film and television companies has a respite. This year’s National Day file may break previous records, but the performance dividends of various film and television companies will be dispersed. Still limited. The question worth thinking about is that after the holiday, imported films such as "Gemini Killer", "One Piece: Operation Frenzy" and "Once Upon a Time in Hollywood" are ready to go. There are already many runners on the track waiting to start in the second half of October.
