text/Wendong
Recently, due to the release of "Zhu Xian", various entertainment media began to talk about the return of traffic movies, and the hot search news is criticizing the low reputation of "Zhu Xian" and its box office results that do not match. In fact, "Zhu Xian" borrowed from the Mid-Autumn Festival period. Since there were no competitors during the period, with the traffic of Xiao Zhan and the big IP "Zhu Xian", this film of the same name became a holiday pastime that the audience did not have much choice, although the box office is now close. 400 million, but there is really nothing to talk about.
A streaming movie with a production cost of only 50 million has achieved decent results. Why has it caused a wave of condemnation? In fact, this just shows that the era of traffic has long passed and the market is beginning to mature. Three years ago, a big IP+traffic niche movie had a high box office. Would anyone think it was news? And now, no one finds it strange that the traffic movie "Shanghai Fortress" encounters Waterloo, but it's just that a film like "Zhu Xian" can make money that makes people think it is new.
In the era of "cutting leeks", there will be conscientious works that rely on quality to win high returns, and nowadays, popcorn movies are occasionally short-lived in the market that competes with quality. The relative maturity of the domestic film and television industry is complementary to the barbaric development of the past. With the history of "traffic harvesting", the current market is rational. This is worth reviewing.
Bronze Age: Box office methodology reaps the audience
If there is a shortcut in this world, the first ones must be smart people, but smart people are often not the last laugh. There is no shortage of smart people in the film and television industry, and they have experienced an era when there are shortcuts.
"Big Brother" Jackie Chan used to have a successful methodology called "fighting + funny = box office". This was once tried and tested in the golden age of Hong Kong movies in the last century. "The Police Story" and "Drunken Boxing" laid the foundation for a successful family The stable status of "Ban" later went to the world with "Red Fan District" and "Rush Hour". The domestic film and television outbreak period began in 2012 and reached its peak in 14-16. Film projects blossomed everywhere, with a compound annual growth rate of more than 40% in the box office. In that era, the quality of movies and the practice of internal skills were not as good as quick money. Need to be supported by methodologies like Jackie Chan.
In the golden partner of Huayi and Feng Xiaogang, this method is called "Lunar New Year's File + Feng's Comedy"; in Guangguang Media, this method is "strong distribution + dark horse incubation", which also created the "Tai囧" Big explosion. However, these methods have the unique brand of the production company behind them, and it is difficult for other companies to copy. Later, domestic film and television explored a new "universal" quick method: "big IP + traffic stars + strong announcements = box office." This method is simple and rude, but it did have its own characteristics at the time.
At that time, the general audience's demand for watching movies has just been released, and the standard of appreciation of the film itself is not high, and they are accustomed to accepting the brainwashing of promotional films and following the trend of celebrity effects. Therefore, if you want to relax watching a movie on the weekend, which There are so many stars in the promotion of the film, so it is natural to choose which one to watch.
So the fast-track method became popular, and high-box-office "bad movies" such as "Fuchun Mountain Residence", "Tomb Notes", "Break Up Master", and "Little Times" series were born. I want to pay for it and do it again in the later stage, for fear that it will affect my reputation after the release; the two small traffic of Lu Han and Jing Boran in "Tomb Notes" do not need acting skills at all, and a large number of fans will definitely pay for the theater line The incomprehensibility of the plot of "Break Up Master" not only ruined this classic drama IP, but also made two top-line big guys, Chao Ge and Yang Mi, scolded for a long time. Although
was scolded on the Internet, the investors made money, the actors had the box office to support the film remuneration, and the production company made the production fees. Everyone was happy. The only thing that hurt was the audience, who felt that they had been cheated by spending the movie ticket money.
IP was fired to the sky at this time. The head IP of the net article actually requires 10 million film and television adaptation rights, but since the rapid methodology can harvest the box office and audience, naturally some people are willing to pay for the IP and the star, and find another awesome The company's publicity and distribution company made great efforts to spend money on marketing, and fans who did not know the truth went into the movie theater. Later, even "Frozen: The Gate of Rebirth" (plagiarized from the Hong Kong movie of the last century "Frozen Man"), "Journey to the West: Harassment in Heaven" (traditional Westward Journey theme) and other IP leftover films also made money, so traffic was harvested Intensified.
but IPThe +star + publicity routine often means large investment and high thresholds. Many small and medium-sized companies have to have other ways to make money, but at this time the Internet movie was also born.
A group of filmmakers saw that the production cost was only a few hundred thousand at the time, and they actually gave birth to "Taoist Out of the Mountain" such as "Taoist Out of the Mountain", which can click and share millions of accounts on video websites, and make quick money swarming in the battlefield of the Internet. Found a new profit method. In the early days of
, because there were no restrictions on the subject matter, many users were curious about ghosts, monsters, zombies, zombies, gambling, gangsters, etc., which they could not see on TV stations and theaters. The quick method was born: hunting for novelty.
All kinds of once restricted types are blooming, there are "Taoist Going Down the Mountain", "White Clothes School Flower and Long Legs", "Addiction", "Xie Wendong" and other bizarre masterpieces of online universities and online dramas, which are compared to theaters. The viewer is slightly comforted that no one expects him to be of high quality, and it is enough to satisfy the curiosity mentality.
However, when the traffic is harvested, the audience will no longer pay.
has experienced a lot of "bad movies" baptism. After 17 years, the audience's consumption has matured. Generally, they will first look at Douban's ratings and online word-of-mouth reviews before deciding to enter the movie theater. Everyone will only pay for quality content.
After the birth of various curiosity themes on the Internet, supervision began to restrict some undesirable themes, and the audience was also tired of shoddy ghosts, gambling, and pornography. The Internet has developed in the direction of boutique and head.
’s first film and television harvesting made some companies make money in a simple and rude way, but at the same time educates the audience. In the era of quality, companies that previously relied on quick methods to make money have basically come to an end. After 2016, similar to "Nine Big IPs such as "Layer Demon Tower" and "Legend of the Gods", all-star lineups of big production films, suffered a disastrous box office failure due to the flawed content quality. At the same time, films such as "Chinese Partner", "Wolf Warrior", and "Embroidered Spring Knife" have won both reputation and box office gains on the basis of quality without IP. The first harvest of
has come to an end. The market has matured, and fast-track film and television productions are out of the game, turning to the era of content and quality. At the same time, the huge gold absorption effect of film and television has also prompted a group of investors to file into this industry and give birth to it. The second era of film and television harvest.
Silver Age: All kinds of routines are harvested. Investors
. Many self-thinking smart people want to make stupid money, but in the end they find that they are fools. Many investors are actually self-righteous smart people.
film and television companies rely on their works to make money. The quick method is that it will take a year or two soon. Moreover, they are also facing the market environment, changes in audience viewing habits, and regulatory policy adjustments. Film and television companies urgently need a faster way to realize cash. In the immature market, the film and television money-making effect and the story of the so-called big IP have made a group of investors from outside the industry eager to try and become another batch of "new leeks" in the film and television industry.
During the period of 14-16, investing in movies became a fashion for China's new rich, and a group of people who participated in the early stage did make money. At that time, the author saw that some private bosses first invested hundreds of thousands on the Internet University to test the water, and participated in some fantasy and martial arts themes. In less than a year, they paid back their costs and the yield was above 50%. Compared with the traditional It’s much easier to open a restaurant and engage in trade. As a result, those who made money added additional investment to participate in the production of more costly theater films.
And the directors and producers of many film and television companies were chasing coal bosses and real estate developers to invest five or six years ago. Now suddenly a group of local tyrants send them to their door, and a new method of harvesting leeks faster has been born—— Premium transfer of film and television projects. The
film and television project has a production cost budget at the project approval stage, and the parties in the early stage organization do not need to wait for the film production to be completed and online. In the preparation stage, they can also transfer their investment shares through a premium method to recover costs in advance and make money .
For example, for a film and television project with a real production cost of 30 million, the producer, co-producer, etc. incubated the script in the early stage and spent 2 million, and the remaining 28 million costs all parties subscribed for the share of the intention to contribute, and only paid 10 % Of the deposit can sign the contract. Later, external investors took a fancy to the future earnings of this film. If they want to participate, they can only ask for the share from the previous co-producer. At this time, the cost price may rise to 50 million before the previous producer will transfer. This is a round Premium.
If 10% of the share, the original producer’s subscription cost is 3 million, and you only need to pay a 10% deposit of 300,000 to get it. After a month, it will be sold to the receiver at a premium of 5 million, and you will earn in the middle 2 million, but only 300,000 investment. Driven by such a fast and profitable way of making money, the film and television company and the previous co-producer have to wait until the film is released to earn fans’ box office, quickly transfer shares at a premium, and cut investors’ leek.
But the investor who comes in at the premium is not stupid. He can transfer the share again in the second round of premium to make money for the people behind. Such a round of premiums will eventually lead to many projects with a production cost of tens of millions. The premium has reached hundreds of millions. Investors who come in each round feel that they have taken advantage of it. If they take a share of a good project, even if it is expensive, there will be the final box office support. Someone will always take the offer. This phenomenon of
frequently occurs in some famous directors + big IP + star lineup projects at the time, and it has not completely disappeared until now. For example, the comedy "Dance, Elephant" starring Allen was rumored to have an initial cost of 80 million. Later, the share was transferred at a premium to 260 million, because the star actor previously participated in "Shameful Iron Fist" and other billions of box office works. Halo makes the investors who came in the last round feel that there are still "stupid money" at the box office of the theaters to earn, and they can also have several times the income.
Ideal is plump, reality is skinny, no one in Boshou’s game thinks he is a fool, but except for those who organize the game, most of them are fools. The investors who participated in high-priced projection video projects in 15 and 2016 finally tasted the bitter fruit after 17 years. Most of the projects simply couldn't support the high box office at all, and finally suffered a large loss. But this is not the worst. Many film and television projects cannot be released due to publicity and policy issues, and investors’ money is basically hopeless.
At that time, a group with a real estate background around the author established a film and television company, and immediately participated in several large-scale theatrical movies, one of which was "Ashura". I still remember when the film and television company CEO proudly announced that this The project jointly invested by the Ministry and Ali Pictures will become one of the company's leading products for brand building. In 2018, "Asura" was finally released. As everyone knows, the film and television company seems to have disappeared. This time the harvest of
educates investors. There is no good money in the world, and most of the stories about good money are also All are beautiful traps. However, in this harvesting game, the only money maker, the joint organization of the pilot project, harvested investors at a premium, and the filming and production made another opaque production fee difference, which seems to be very profitable and full of money. But the result is not so. If the project of
film and television company causes investors to lose blood, it will be difficult to raise funds in the future. A group of film and television companies and film and television producers around me have made money by selling shares at a premium. Some of the works were not shot, and some were shot. It ended up with huge losses. Afterwards, these company projects could hardly be financed again, and it was difficult for new works to come out. Short-term quick money came at the expense of the company's long-term development.
But there are also many types of investment, there are investors who are aimed at projects, and there are also ambitions for capital invested by companies. The ultimate harvest of film and television companies is not in the primary market, but in the more advanced game of landing on the capital market. The golden age of
: Capital game reap investors
praying mantis catching cicadas, the oriole is behind, it is difficult for people who pick up the sickle to cut leeks to notice that they may also be leeks.
The domestic GEM board opened, and companies represented by Huayi and Tang De went public, creating billionaires in the film and television industry overnight, so many companies with a certain scale and strength in the industry have followed suit, but realizing this dream requires capital Support-venture capital.
Only with the investment of wind, can we have more own funds, and the film and television companies can participate more in the project to achieve performance, and only after the performance can land in the capital market. At that time, venture capitalists were also keen on the capital effect of concepts such as IP and film and television. Listed companies cross-border acquisitions of film and television companies are everywhere. Backdoor listed film and television companies also include Yinji Media and Ciwen Media. It also became a direction for venture capital to get together.
During the 15-16 years, in order to package the company's story beautifully, film and television companies have found various big IP, celebrities, and famous directors for their cooperation lineups to prepare blockbuster film and television dramas. But these alone are not enough. In order to make the company's performance beautiful, film and television companies also generally use financial "three tactics":
star movie rewards.Joining the company to improve performance: For the film and television companies that the celebrity founded or participated in, when preparing the project, the celebrity often only receives a small salary, which can reduce the cost of the project and increase the profit. If the increased profit remains in the listed company, the P/E ratio can be achieved. Dozens of times magnification increases the company's market value, and high profits can be made by staying in unlisted companies, and high valuation attracts new investment.
Accounts receivable for performance: a film and television company signs a film purchase agreement with a TV station or video website, and a major online drama is produced to obtain a broadcast license. After the film is submitted to the platform, the contract amount can be counted as accounts receivable , Regardless of whether the platform has already given money. Using this method can quickly increase the company's operating income and profits. For example, the listed company Huanrui Century is a master in this area. However, in 2019, the financial whitewashing finally exploded and was subject to inspections by the Securities Regulatory Commission. However, at that time, the capital market will have an effect, the stock price soars and the market value increases. However, if the proposed listed company follows the same pattern, it can bet against the performance of venture capital.
Capitalization of financial expenditures: LeEco typically counts a large number of acquired copyright IP into company assets and calculates depreciation every year for more than 10 years. However, the cost of the acquisition at that time was basically a large one-time investment. It is a huge question whether these copyrights are still worth a few years later, but this method can defer the company's cost expenditures in a wide range, and the annual report can be done. It is very beautiful, and the company has a lot of big IP reserves all at once, and there are stories to tell in the capital market.
Three tactics + beautiful stories, so that a large number of film and television companies have raised funds and raised their valuations; with valuation and performance, they can declare for listing or be merged by listed companies. A large number of companies established by celebrities and famous directors did the same. After Feng Xiaogang set up his own business, he immediately sold it to his old club Huayi Brothers, and promised a three-year gambling performance period. Later, a group of celebrities such as Jiang Wenli, Gu Changwei and his wife also followed suit...
people are not as good as the sky, supervision can no longer stand, and the story will always be shattered.
After 2017, the door to the capital market is basically closed to the film and television industry. For companies that have been listed by chance, the major shareholders are either carrying a three-year equity sales restriction period, or backdooring a three-year performance bet. It is not that simple to cash out. The later story happened in 2018. The industry-wide market value of the film and television company represented by Huayi Brothers collapsed. Huayi Brothers has a large amount of debt, and has pressed all the assets that can be mortgaged and has not overcome the difficulties, and backdoor listing In fact, the Yinji Media has already been empty, and the company is destined to delist.
capital can create wealth myths, but in many cases it is just book wealth. In this game, "cutting leeks" is not so simple. The sickle picked up by major shareholders may not have time to land, but they find themselves being cut by hot money and other shareholders.
The endgame of A shares did not make people completely give up. Since 18 years, with the help of the concept of blockchain and digital currency, another batch of projects have been split with copyright revenue, and concepts such as film and television public chains have made waves in the currency circle and attracted a wave In crowdfunding, the price of the coin was almost zero in the end. Among the project parties, there are very few who can cash out and leave. After listing on the currency exchange, they have to use the crowd-funded bitcoins for market value management. In the end, they don’t know where they are. With leeks, the project can't be done, and personal finances are lost. The
film and television company was injured, the venture capital was injured, and the shareholders were even more hurt. The game of harvest is more like a "Infernal Affairs", "come out and run, and you will have to pay it back sooner or later". In the end, there is no winner. When you harvest others, you will also be harvested. After the
film and television industry experienced three harvesting history, the leeks and weeds are gone. The immature market is educated, and most speculators who want to make quick money are also out of the game. What is left is a swarthy land, and only carefully sowing seeds can harvest the final crops.
What is gratifying is that this land has successively grown strong fruits. In 2017, there were "Wolf Warriors 2", 2018 "I am not the God of Medicine", in 2019, "Wandering Earth", "Nezha", and occasionally A "Zhu Xian" was immediately condemned by words. This land is much healthier than before.
