The 2019 Lunar New Year file will officially kick off. Although the new film represented by "Two Tigers" has the slogan "Leader in the Lunar New Year", it is undeniable that with the rise of the other three stages, the focus of the Lunar New Year file is also Gradually shifted, the glory is no longer, and even the 2018 Lunar New Year stalls have fallen to the bottom, and they have been hit hard. The monthly box office champion and runner-up in December last year were also won by two imported films of "Aquaman" and "Spider-Man: Parallel Universe" .
Judging from the new year's film list this year, it has made great progress compared with last year. It is even expected that there will be 2 domestic films of 1 billion+ and 5 500 million+ domestic films.
Despite this, the focus of market attention will still be mainly on the 2020 Spring Festival file two months later. At present, the seven films in this year's Spring Festival file have entered the intensive publicity cycle. Therefore, the probability of film withdrawal and other new films being airborne is also greatly reduced.
Film Information Office forecasting expert group, combined with the daily increase of the cat’s eye of the film, and the increase of Baidu Index, Sogou Index, Weibo Index, and Micro Index, the heat tracking when the movie is released, and the series IP and main creator The historical box office performance of the lineup and theme type movies predicts the TOP6 movies for the Spring Festival in 2020.
TOP6 "Vanguard"
first day forecast: 80 million
cumulative forecast: 550 million
Jackie Chan is here again! During the 2017 Spring Festival, Jackie Chan's "Kung Fu Yoga" had the last laugh. However, only two years later, "Detective Pu Songling" finally achieved a box office score of less than 200 million, which did deal a heavy blow to fans who liked Jackie Chan. Beginning in 2017, Jackie Chan began to experiment with various themes, such as political thriller "British Showdown", sci-fi action "Blood of the Machine", ancient costume fantasy "Detective Pu Songling" and "Dragon Card Mystery", with mixed praise and criticism. The box office performance has fallen again and again. However, it is undeniable that in the field of action movies, Jackie Chan is still a representative figure in the Chinese film scene. Action and adventure-themed movies are Jackie Chan's masterpieces. The 2012 "Zodiac" and the 2017 "Kung Fu Yoga" both created excellent box office results. This time Jackie Chan finally returned to the subject he was good at, although he did not have the strength to win the Spring Festival championship. With the return of the Jackie Chan + Tang Jili combination, Vanguard shoulders the important task of reviving the dragon-style action movie. However, even if the word of mouth exceeds expectations, regardless of the film's opening level or the final box office, the film may not have any strength to hit the top four of the Spring Festival.
TOP5 First day forecast of "Jiang Ziya"
: 200 million
Cumulative forecast: 860 million
This summer file, "Nezha" hit the box office of 5 billion, which really exceeded all industry expectations. And the trailer of "Jiang Ziya" in the ending egg of "Nezha" also makes people full of expectations for the second work of the animated Conferred Universe of the Light Color Color Strip House. There is no suspense that the opening box office of "Jiang Ziya" will greatly break the previous box office record of 140 million animated films set by "Nezha", and refresh this record to 200 million+. However, from the perspective of the schedule environment, "Jiang Ziya" wants to surpass "Nezha"'s box office performance is hopeless, but just as the Marvel Universe needs "Iron Man", it also needs "Ant-Man" and "Invincible Hulk", "Jiang Ziya" 》If better quality is guaranteed, it will also have the strength to hit the 1 billion+ box office. However, the current word-of-mouth signal released in the early stage of the film is not ideal. According to industry animation sources, the special effects of the film are being outsourced on a large scale, and the specific quality is unknown. Due to the long production cycle of animated films, we also hope that Caitiaowu can produce good national comic works in a step-by-step manner under the premise of ensuring quality.
TOP4 "囧Mom"
first day forecast: 280 million
cumulative forecast: 2.2 billion
In 2018, it can be described as the year of Xu Zheng's outbreak. From April to September, for six consecutive months, the mainland film market has Xu Zheng's works have appeared one after another. Not only the starring "Players behind the scenes" achieved 360 million results in the 51st file, and the guest starring in the dark horse love film "Overtime Cohabitation" that participated in the production of the producer, the starring "I am not the god of medicine" achieved a double harvest of word of mouth and box office. In addition, Xu Zheng also made guest appearances in "A Good Show" and "Children of Jianghu" directed by his friend Huang Bo and Jia Zhangke. During this period, the title of brother Shan Zheng, who suddenly became popular on the Internet, also allowed the 46-year-old middle-aged man to experience the experience of being an Internet celebrity and attract countless fans.
availableIt can be said that the most watched mainland actor last year was Xu Zheng. This year, Xu Zheng continues to produce new works. The director + guest appearance of "My Motherland and Me" and the producer of "Beloved" will also meet the audience at the Lunar New Year Festival on December 31 this year.
Of course, the most important thing is this five-year-old "囧Mom". At present, the second cast (played by mother) and the distribution team of the film are not disclosed, which is full of mystery. However, the previous news that Hengdian guaranteed a minimum of 2.4 billion box office has also made the film already recover its costs in advance.
However, although the previous work "Hong Kong囧" has achieved very successful box office results, its word-of-mouth performance is not satisfactory, which may affect the opening performance of "囧囧" to a certain extent. After experiencing the poor reputation of "Gang囧" as expected, Xu Zheng also became more and more aware of the importance of the script. What kind of surprises will the new work of Director Xu Zheng, who spent many years polishing the script this time, bring us in the future?
TOP3 "Emergency Rescue"
first day forecast: 400 million
Cumulative forecast: 3.2 billion
The film was launched in November last year. It is the first live-action movie to be shot in the Spring Festival next year. The film was officially finished in May this year, and then put into intense post-production. Lin Chaoxian is synonymous with dark horses. In 2016, Operation Mekong had only 30 million box office on the first day, and finally nearly 1.2 billion box office won the National Day box office champion. In 2018, the first day of "Operation Red Sea" only 11.4%, and the final box office of 3.65 billion won the annual box office champion. But this time it is impossible for Lin Chaoxian to be a dark horse, because since the start of the project, "Emergency Rescue" has become a "white horse" with its own enthusiasm, and the number of people who want to see it on all platforms is among the best. In the announcement lineup, the troika combination of Tencent + Bona + Maoyan also gave the film sufficient escort. It is certain that the box office of "Emergency Rescue" must be two before the Spring Festival next year!
TOP2 "Detective Chinatown 3"
first day forecast: 580 million
cumulative forecast: 3.45 billion
Marvel Cinematic Universe MCU has achieved great commercial success, and has also triggered a collective follow-up of major Hollywood producers. However, it does not seem to be successful in the Chinese film market. The "Rao Xueman" and "Ip Man" series have tried before, but the market feedback is not very good. From the current point of view, this series, which focuses on the concept of "Chinatown Universe" from the second part, still has a lot of potential. The 2018 Spring Festival file "Detective Chinatown 2" won nearly 3.4 billion box office results, which also shows the huge commercial value of this project. The release lineup of this film is still strong, but the previous work was blessed by Wuzhou + Lianrui's double first-class publishing team. Since Lianrui has its own "Chinese Women's Volleyball" in the Spring Festival this year, only Wuzhou is currently releasing it. The release team added a certain amount of pressure. Through the market observation of the Spring Festival files in recent years, the budget of the film announcement and the execution ability of the distribution team have greatly affected the film’s box office. Fortunately, there is currently only a 15-second preview of this film, which has won the first place in the Spring Festival file in terms of data. It is basically impossible to draw a box office below the qualified line of 500 million. As one of the few Chinese-language films in recent years, the third "true sequel" of the series has been filmed. At present, the film has at least a basic box office of 2 billion+. As for how much it can make, it has to be seen. Can the film guarantee the reputation of the audience for the previous series?
TOP1 "Chinese Women's Volleyball"
first day forecast: 220 million
Cumulative forecast: 4.2 billion
Next year, it can be said that the mainland film market is an out-and-out sports theme. In addition to Chen Kexin's two "Chinese Women's Volleyball" and "Li Na", Hengye's "Chinese Table Tennis" has also been approved. In addition, it is reported that Wu Jing's next movie may also be a sports theme. Although "Li Na" has been completed for more than half a year, the first to meet with the audience is the more family-oriented "Chinese Women's Volleyball". After all, the Chinese women's volleyball team back then was a common memory of the whole people's attention. This period of history was also made into "Win the Championship" by Xu Zheng. According to people who have watched the film, "Win the Championship" in "My Motherland and Me" can be regarded as the prequel story of "Chinese Women's Volleyball". As for the cast lineup, this time it is also an All-Star lineup. In addition to Gong Li, who has been officially announced, according to Reuters, Huang Bo, who has worked with "Dear", also joined the film to play an important role. Two models that have been released from the film so farJudging from the full-length preview, it is full of texture. As the Hong Kong director who is recognized as the best filming mainland theme, I believe Chen Kexin will not disappoint the audience this time. In the mainland film market in the past four years, every Spring Festival box office champion has been won by a dark horse contestant. Although in terms of pre-screening popularity and opening performance, "Chinese Women's Volleyball" is compared with "Tang Detective 3" and "Emergency Rescue". There is a certain gap, but if Chen Guan's level is maintained, the film also has a greater hope to break out of a box office curve similar to "Operation Red Sea" and "Wandering Earth", and ultimately stabilize the box office champion of the 2020 Spring Festival.
