This article comes from the WeChat public account: , author: Moyin Beet, original title: "What does the out-of-order summer schedule mean for the future of Chinese movies", title and picture source: AI generated
"Back to ten years ago overnight" This is the most direct feedback to the market from this summer's release, which mainly points to the box office data.
According to Beacon Professional Edition data, the box office for the summer season in 2024 is 11.64 billion yuan, which is nearly halved from the 20.63 billion in the same period last year. It is slightly higher than the 11.2 billion in 2014 and lower than the 12.477 billion in 2015. Therefore, the movie market has rebounded. The standards of ten years ago are widely circulated in the industry, with more sadness and helplessness.
Source: Lighthouse Professional Edition
This negative sentiment is in sharp contrast to the optimistic atmosphere of the same period last year. At that time, many movies released in succession became hits or dark horses, immersing the market in a good atmosphere, but This year’s report card is like a slap in the face.
To a certain extent, the popularity of last year's summer season and the desertedness of this year's summer season are both abnormal. Just like "Chang'an 30,000 Miles" received a box office of 1.8 billion last year because it borrowed the spring breeze of "primary and middle school students singing ancient poems", "White Snake: Many sources predict that the final box office of "Floating Life" will be around 450 million, which has also fallen to the lower limit of light-chasing animation production in recent years.
There are overall factors affecting the consumer environment, as well as the continuous failure of a number of high-profile movies in the summer season. Together, they have caused the summer season in 2024 to fall to the situation ten years ago.
The box office data is the final result, which will undoubtedly have a huge impact on the direction of the subsequent film market. For example, in the past, when investors invested in Chen Sicheng, Xu Zheng and Wu Ershan, they squeezed their heads to get in, but when they were no longer there When it works, capital will be more cautious, and when it is transferred to small and medium-sized films, it may be "without rice to put into the pot".
Xu Zheng, Wu Ershan and Chen Sicheng’s summer movie box office
However, just from the perspective of genre elements, this summer movie is undoubtedly the richest year, " decrypts ", " negative and negative are positive ", " From Films such as "Safe Evacuation in the 21st Century " and " Under the Stranger" all made innovations in their respective main genres, but in the end the box office was not satisfactory, and the mentality of the creators must have been greatly affected. The alarm bell for
has been ringing since this summer season. After vigorously attacking the "market recovery", the severe challenges faced by Chinese films will become even more severe. The failure of
rules
"Catch a Baby", " Silent Kill " and the imported film " Alien: Death Ship " ranked in the top three box office this summer, with box office figures of 3.25 billion, 1.35 billion and 642 million respectively. The remaining None of the films have grossed more than 500 million.
Among them, "Under the Stranger", "Decryption", " Retrograde Life ", "Safe Evacuation from the 21st Century", "A Negative Is a Positive", "The Hedgehog" and many other genre films with the participation of famous directors and popular actors, their box office Each of the films was unsatisfactory, directly dragging down the summer box office.
In terms of individual films, the most surprising films this summer are undoubtedly "Under the Stranger", "Decryption" and "Retrograde Life". They are all mainstay Chinese film directors Wu Ershan, Chen Sicheng and Film directed by Xu Zheng.
Although "Under the Stranger" and "Decryption" are worthy of industry recognition in terms of genre innovation, their ultimate failure stems from the public's "strangeness" towards these two films, while "Retrograde Life" goes against the mainstream sentiment of the market. And caused by.
The strangeness of "Under the Stranger" is that there are very few comic-book movies with flying and escape styles on the big screen. The alien world created by Wu Ershan has not been recognized by the mainstream audience. It is said that it is difficult to enter the worldview structure of this story. to form an emotional resonance with the protagonist; the strangeness of "Decryption" may be that when mainstream audiences had the expectation of watching the spy movie "The Wind", they found that this film has biopics and historical writing, but it only lacks tense scenes. The spy scenes, as well as more images and music modeled after Hollywood blockbusters, feel inconsistent when put together.
Xu Zheng's "Retrograde Life" set off a wave of public opinion when the trailer was released. When the main film was released, this discussion similar to "rich people playing poor people" had not dissipated. One view is that when the economic environment is on the upswing, "Retrograde Life" will achieve good box office as a realistic film, but when some working people are really affected, the emotions created by the film are the same as Liu Huan's lyrics of "The big deal is to start over again" , but everyone no longer wants to go to the theater and continue to be immersed in misery.
It should be pointed out that the above three films have all achieved box office in the range of 100 to 400 million, but there is a large gap compared to the film's investment cost and market expectations, which can be described as a box office rout. If "Under the Stranger", "Decryption" and "Retrograde Life" are far below market expectations, then "A Negative Is a Positive" and "Safe Evacuation from the 21st Century" are in terms of genre innovation and aesthetic expression. Although word-of-mouth performance It was passable, but it didn't break through the circle, and there was no explosive point.
In addition to the directors and stars who are considered by the market to be more acceptable to young audiences, most of them failed to achieve the desired box office results in the summer season. Then, another failure of this summer season, , originated from the public sentiment grabbing point error of judgment.
The dark horses of this summer's summer are undoubtedly "Silent Kill", "Alien", and "Rebirth", which performed unexpectedly at the box office. The common advantage of these three films is that "the scale is cool", which has been recognized by the industry in the past. Emotional rules are broken one after another.
Compared with last year's " She Disappeared ", " All-or-Nothing " and "Octagonal Cage", three consecutive films relied on realism topics to set off a wave of public sentiment. The re-exploration of real topics based on the human dilemma, "The Hedgehog" boldly touching social reality while exploring human nature and family relationships, or high-reputation family tear films such as "Grandma's Grandson" failed to set off a storm of public sentiment as expected. .
Maybe, In this current society full of depression, the excitement and refreshment directly brought by the movie-watching experience is king. The box office success of , which belongs to the ultimate comedy, crime film and horror film, is also confirming this.
It’s not about young audiences, it’s about all audiences staying away from cinemas
How to attract young people to enter cinemas is a commonplace question, but judging from the data dimension of this summer’s summer season, this problem continues to be a problem, and as mentioned above , when the creators favored by the post-00s generation do not perform well in new works, the solution to how to attract them is further unclear.
Of course, the bigger problem is the sharp decline in the total number of moviegoers. According to Beacon data, the total number of summer moviegoers in 2023 will be 502 million, while the figure in 2024 will be 285 million. Similar to the total box office, the number of viewers The number of movie users has also been cut in half.
Another data comparison is that the total number of movie viewers in the summer of 2015 was 365 million. This year’s figure is lower than the figure ten years ago. On the premise that the overall number of theaters in operation and the average number of daily screenings are both increasing, the average attendance in the summer season of 2024 will hit the bottom again.
In other words, behind the box office results of the 2024 summer season is a double decline in total moviegoers and average moviegoers.
Specific to the data of young moviegoers, the proportion of young viewers under 20 years old has increased by 1.2 percentage points, and the proportion of 20-24 year olds has stopped declining. From 2019 to 2024, the proportions are 28.2, 29.3, 26.0, 21.5, and 17.2. , 17.2, and the largest group of movie viewers aged 25-29 still maintains around 26%. Statistics from
Lighthouse mentioned that this summer season is the first year that the proportion of young viewers under the age of 20 has increased, mainly due to "young actors starring in works, Japanese youth animated films, including the popular IP adaptation " Cloud Edge". "A Commissary " and other films have successfully attracted young audiences into the cinema."
After all, in this summer season, the proportion of animated films has further increased. Whether they are domestically produced, imported, or even re-released classics, the summer season is actively planning.
In addition, several works are aimed at young audiences, such as "The Negative Is Positive", "Under the Stranger", and "Safe Evacuation from the 21st Century". These films are innovative in aesthetic style and genre elements. "Alien" "People" and "21st Century" both have comic-style pictures, while "The Negative Makes the Positive" adds science fiction elements, but on the whole, these films fail to achieve the results of "There is a Commissary on the Edge of the Clouds". The refreshing " Commissary” has a very clear target audience of young people.
In fact, when the market is comparing the earth-shaking differences between the summer holidays of 2023 and 2024, one unavoidable factor is the "Douyin movie", which can be regarded as a major victory for emotional movie viewing last year, and this will be a big success in 2024. Years are gone, which directly means that this summer season failed to achieve the desired results in terms of short video emotional marketing.
According to Beacon data, the average daily play volume of Douyin movies in the summer of 2023 to 2024 was 1.16 billion in 2023, with a peak of 2.65 billion on July 29. In 2024, the average daily play volume in the market was 560 million, with a peak of 2.65 billion on July 26. The daily peak value is 1.12 billion. The difference in multiples between the two exactly corresponds to the difference in overall box office data.
Perhaps the dilution of the focus of the Paris Olympics can be used as an excuse, but it is more due to the inaccuracy of film creation and publicity in predicting the direction of public sentiment.
Another industry fact is that Douyin Culture, a subsidiary of Douyin, has participated in the co-production of a number of 2023 movies. Among the participating summer films include "Desperate" and "The Disappearance of Her", Douyin has not participated in the production of a movie to be released in 2024. Movies, perhaps related to Douyin’s overall strategy, traffic should tend to other fields besides movies. However, the adjustment of the most effective publicity platform strategy has undoubtedly brought some new difficulties to the industry.
wants to reduce costs and increase efficiency, but also to achieve the ultimate "standard"
. Now that the summer season officially ends in 2024, some foreseeable reactions in the industry will definitely come. For example, the capital chain of the film industry is tight. Poor box office performance will make capital more conservative, and will also make creators tend to be conservative in their creative ideas and ambitions.
Looking at it from another perspective, the problems in the film industry may not only exist in the film industry, but can be compared with other industries. For example, the Beijing catering industry has been hotly discussed a few days ago and has entered an era of low profits.
From a social perspective, when the profits of the catering industry are declining sharply, movies with higher levels of consumption will naturally be in a downward spiral. If we understand this clearly, this summer's box office will not be so disappointing. The key to accepting good results is to make positive adjustments after recognizing the cruel reality.
While paying attention to the serious decline in data, some signals of change have also been released during this summer vacation.
First, as mentioned above, from a creative perspective, this summer is a good year. Creators who bravely experiment with genre breakthroughs are still coming one after another. Whether they are new directors or established creators, they are using this summer season to further unleash their content ambitions, IP universe prospects, and the cultivation of new genres. Although the final cost of
did not satisfy the public's taste, they have also gained some valuable experience from this step of experimentation.
Secondly, Hollywood blockbusters are officially released simultaneously with the summer season, and cuts are reduced. This provides an additional guarantee for the content supply of the Chinese film market in the future. Although the public does not love Hollywood blockbusters so much, this time "Alien" is retained as it is. ": Death Ship" thus making it the third highest-grossing film in the summer season, further demonstrating the change in review direction and the clarity of audience demand.
The prompt "It is recommended that underage viewers choose to watch carefully" frequently appears in this summer movie. If "the emergence of standards" makes the film market a little "cool", then how to "break through the standards" also starts from this The beginning of the summer season has given filmmakers more room for imagination.
In addition, the simultaneous live broadcast of certain finals of this year's Paris Olympics, such as table tennis mixed doubles, in some theaters has further opened up the openness of theater content.
In the future journey of the Chinese film market, will reduce costs, increase efficiency, and maximize genre content, which will become the two axes for film creators to achieve breakthroughs.
Cost reduction and efficiency improvement have swept all industries in the past few years, and the film industry is no exception. However, this year after several major director projects such as "Under the Stranger", "Decryption" and "Retrograde Life" failed at the box office, the top players in the industry Large projects must also consider reducing costs in the future, especially for creators like Chen Sicheng and Wu Ershan who make industrial blockbusters based on "burning money". Appropriate reductions in allocations should also be put on the agenda.
The ultimate genre is still the only magic weapon that prevails in this market. "Silent Kill" and "Alien: Death Ship" are two representative cases. Crime genre films and horror films, as well as another subtext of genre films, are The target audience is clear. Some people also believe that the success of these two movies is also due to "scale". In the current era of diversified content consumption, scale on the big screen still has great mass appeal. Therefore, some people in the industry are calling for greater creative permissions.
As Mao Yu, executive deputy director of the National Film Administration, said when summarizing the summer performance at the 7th China Film New Power Forum: "The crisis of Chinese films has arrived, and change is imminent." The Chinese film market in the future will be full of problems, but solving the problems The method is only left to film production companies and front-line creators.
The external environment is not getting better, and the challenges in the film industry are definitely getting bigger and bigger. After the noisy discussions and summaries of the summer schedule, the battle for the next important schedule is coming quickly. How to hold on, and how to find breakthroughs, the current Filmmakers shouldn't take too many chances.
This article comes from the WeChat public account: , author: Moyin Beet, original title: "What does the out-of-order summer schedule mean for the future of Chinese movies", title and picture source: AI generated
"Back to ten years ago overnight" This is the most direct feedback to the market from this summer's release, which mainly points to the box office data.
According to Beacon Professional Edition data, the box office for the summer season in 2024 is 11.64 billion yuan, which is nearly halved from the 20.63 billion in the same period last year. It is slightly higher than the 11.2 billion in 2014 and lower than the 12.477 billion in 2015. Therefore, the movie market has rebounded. The standards of ten years ago are widely circulated in the industry, with more sadness and helplessness.
Source: Lighthouse Professional Edition
This negative sentiment is in sharp contrast to the optimistic atmosphere of the same period last year. At that time, many movies released in succession became hits or dark horses, immersing the market in a good atmosphere, but This year’s report card is like a slap in the face.
To a certain extent, the popularity of last year's summer season and the desertedness of this year's summer season are both abnormal. Just like "Chang'an 30,000 Miles" received a box office of 1.8 billion last year because it borrowed the spring breeze of "primary and middle school students singing ancient poems", "White Snake: Many sources predict that the final box office of "Floating Life" will be around 450 million, which has also fallen to the lower limit of light-chasing animation production in recent years.
There are overall factors affecting the consumer environment, as well as the continuous failure of a number of high-profile movies in the summer season. Together, they have caused the summer season in 2024 to fall to the situation ten years ago.
The box office data is the final result, which will undoubtedly have a huge impact on the direction of the subsequent film market. For example, in the past, when investors invested in Chen Sicheng, Xu Zheng and Wu Ershan, they squeezed their heads to get in, but when they were no longer there When it works, capital will be more cautious, and when it is transferred to small and medium-sized films, it may be "without rice to put into the pot".
Xu Zheng, Wu Ershan and Chen Sicheng’s summer movie box office
However, just from the perspective of genre elements, this summer movie is undoubtedly the richest year, " decrypts ", " negative and negative are positive ", " From Films such as "Safe Evacuation in the 21st Century " and " Under the Stranger" all made innovations in their respective main genres, but in the end the box office was not satisfactory, and the mentality of the creators must have been greatly affected. The alarm bell for
has been ringing since this summer season. After vigorously attacking the "market recovery", the severe challenges faced by Chinese films will become even more severe. The failure of
rules
"Catch a Baby", " Silent Kill " and the imported film " Alien: Death Ship " ranked in the top three box office this summer, with box office figures of 3.25 billion, 1.35 billion and 642 million respectively. The remaining None of the films have grossed more than 500 million.
Among them, "Under the Stranger", "Decryption", " Retrograde Life ", "Safe Evacuation from the 21st Century", "A Negative Is a Positive", "The Hedgehog" and many other genre films with the participation of famous directors and popular actors, their box office Each of the films was unsatisfactory, directly dragging down the summer box office.
In terms of individual films, the most surprising films this summer are undoubtedly "Under the Stranger", "Decryption" and "Retrograde Life". They are all mainstay Chinese film directors Wu Ershan, Chen Sicheng and Film directed by Xu Zheng.
Although "Under the Stranger" and "Decryption" are worthy of industry recognition in terms of genre innovation, their ultimate failure stems from the public's "strangeness" towards these two films, while "Retrograde Life" goes against the mainstream sentiment of the market. And caused by.
The strangeness of "Under the Stranger" is that there are very few comic-book movies with flying and escape styles on the big screen. The alien world created by Wu Ershan has not been recognized by the mainstream audience. It is said that it is difficult to enter the worldview structure of this story. to form an emotional resonance with the protagonist; the strangeness of "Decryption" may be that when mainstream audiences had the expectation of watching the spy movie "The Wind", they found that this film has biopics and historical writing, but it only lacks tense scenes. The spy scenes, as well as more images and music modeled after Hollywood blockbusters, feel inconsistent when put together.
Xu Zheng's "Retrograde Life" set off a wave of public opinion when the trailer was released. When the main film was released, this discussion similar to "rich people playing poor people" had not dissipated. One view is that when the economic environment is on the upswing, "Retrograde Life" will achieve good box office as a realistic film, but when some working people are really affected, the emotions created by the film are the same as Liu Huan's lyrics of "The big deal is to start over again" , but everyone no longer wants to go to the theater and continue to be immersed in misery.
It should be pointed out that the above three films have all achieved box office in the range of 100 to 400 million, but there is a large gap compared to the film's investment cost and market expectations, which can be described as a box office rout. If "Under the Stranger", "Decryption" and "Retrograde Life" are far below market expectations, then "A Negative Is a Positive" and "Safe Evacuation from the 21st Century" are in terms of genre innovation and aesthetic expression. Although word-of-mouth performance It was passable, but it didn't break through the circle, and there was no explosive point.
In addition to the directors and stars who are considered by the market to be more acceptable to young audiences, most of them failed to achieve the desired box office results in the summer season. Then, another failure of this summer season, , originated from the public sentiment grabbing point error of judgment.
The dark horses of this summer's summer are undoubtedly "Silent Kill", "Alien", and "Rebirth", which performed unexpectedly at the box office. The common advantage of these three films is that "the scale is cool", which has been recognized by the industry in the past. Emotional rules are broken one after another.
Compared with last year's " She Disappeared ", " All-or-Nothing " and "Octagonal Cage", three consecutive films relied on realism topics to set off a wave of public sentiment. The re-exploration of real topics based on the human dilemma, "The Hedgehog" boldly touching social reality while exploring human nature and family relationships, or high-reputation family tear films such as "Grandma's Grandson" failed to set off a storm of public sentiment as expected. .
Maybe, In this current society full of depression, the excitement and refreshment directly brought by the movie-watching experience is king. The box office success of , which belongs to the ultimate comedy, crime film and horror film, is also confirming this.
It’s not about young audiences, it’s about all audiences staying away from cinemas
How to attract young people to enter cinemas is a commonplace question, but judging from the data dimension of this summer’s summer season, this problem continues to be a problem, and as mentioned above , when the creators favored by the post-00s generation do not perform well in new works, the solution to how to attract them is further unclear.
Of course, the bigger problem is the sharp decline in the total number of moviegoers. According to Beacon data, the total number of summer moviegoers in 2023 will be 502 million, while the figure in 2024 will be 285 million. Similar to the total box office, the number of viewers The number of movie users has also been cut in half.
Another data comparison is that the total number of movie viewers in the summer of 2015 was 365 million. This year’s figure is lower than the figure ten years ago. On the premise that the overall number of theaters in operation and the average number of daily screenings are both increasing, the average attendance in the summer season of 2024 will hit the bottom again.
In other words, behind the box office results of the 2024 summer season is a double decline in total moviegoers and average moviegoers.
Specific to the data of young moviegoers, the proportion of young viewers under 20 years old has increased by 1.2 percentage points, and the proportion of 20-24 year olds has stopped declining. From 2019 to 2024, the proportions are 28.2, 29.3, 26.0, 21.5, and 17.2. , 17.2, and the largest group of movie viewers aged 25-29 still maintains around 26%. Statistics from
Lighthouse mentioned that this summer season is the first year that the proportion of young viewers under the age of 20 has increased, mainly due to "young actors starring in works, Japanese youth animated films, including the popular IP adaptation " Cloud Edge". "A Commissary " and other films have successfully attracted young audiences into the cinema."
After all, in this summer season, the proportion of animated films has further increased. Whether they are domestically produced, imported, or even re-released classics, the summer season is actively planning.
In addition, several works are aimed at young audiences, such as "The Negative Is Positive", "Under the Stranger", and "Safe Evacuation from the 21st Century". These films are innovative in aesthetic style and genre elements. "Alien" "People" and "21st Century" both have comic-style pictures, while "The Negative Makes the Positive" adds science fiction elements, but on the whole, these films fail to achieve the results of "There is a Commissary on the Edge of the Clouds". The refreshing " Commissary” has a very clear target audience of young people.
In fact, when the market is comparing the earth-shaking differences between the summer holidays of 2023 and 2024, one unavoidable factor is the "Douyin movie", which can be regarded as a major victory for emotional movie viewing last year, and this will be a big success in 2024. Years are gone, which directly means that this summer season failed to achieve the desired results in terms of short video emotional marketing.
According to Beacon data, the average daily play volume of Douyin movies in the summer of 2023 to 2024 was 1.16 billion in 2023, with a peak of 2.65 billion on July 29. In 2024, the average daily play volume in the market was 560 million, with a peak of 2.65 billion on July 26. The daily peak value is 1.12 billion. The difference in multiples between the two exactly corresponds to the difference in overall box office data.
Perhaps the dilution of the focus of the Paris Olympics can be used as an excuse, but it is more due to the inaccuracy of film creation and publicity in predicting the direction of public sentiment.
Another industry fact is that Douyin Culture, a subsidiary of Douyin, has participated in the co-production of a number of 2023 movies. Among the participating summer films include "Desperate" and "The Disappearance of Her", Douyin has not participated in the production of a movie to be released in 2024. Movies, perhaps related to Douyin’s overall strategy, traffic should tend to other fields besides movies. However, the adjustment of the most effective publicity platform strategy has undoubtedly brought some new difficulties to the industry.
wants to reduce costs and increase efficiency, but also to achieve the ultimate "standard"
. Now that the summer season officially ends in 2024, some foreseeable reactions in the industry will definitely come. For example, the capital chain of the film industry is tight. Poor box office performance will make capital more conservative, and will also make creators tend to be conservative in their creative ideas and ambitions.
Looking at it from another perspective, the problems in the film industry may not only exist in the film industry, but can be compared with other industries. For example, the Beijing catering industry has been hotly discussed a few days ago and has entered an era of low profits.
From a social perspective, when the profits of the catering industry are declining sharply, movies with higher levels of consumption will naturally be in a downward spiral. If we understand this clearly, this summer's box office will not be so disappointing. The key to accepting good results is to make positive adjustments after recognizing the cruel reality.
While paying attention to the serious decline in data, some signals of change have also been released during this summer vacation.
First, as mentioned above, from a creative perspective, this summer is a good year. Creators who bravely experiment with genre breakthroughs are still coming one after another. Whether they are new directors or established creators, they are using this summer season to further unleash their content ambitions, IP universe prospects, and the cultivation of new genres. Although the final cost of
did not satisfy the public's taste, they have also gained some valuable experience from this step of experimentation.
Secondly, Hollywood blockbusters are officially released simultaneously with the summer season, and cuts are reduced. This provides an additional guarantee for the content supply of the Chinese film market in the future. Although the public does not love Hollywood blockbusters so much, this time "Alien" is retained as it is. ": Death Ship" thus making it the third highest-grossing film in the summer season, further demonstrating the change in review direction and the clarity of audience demand.
The prompt "It is recommended that underage viewers choose to watch carefully" frequently appears in this summer movie. If "the emergence of standards" makes the film market a little "cool", then how to "break through the standards" also starts from this The beginning of the summer season has given filmmakers more room for imagination.
In addition, the simultaneous live broadcast of certain finals of this year's Paris Olympics, such as table tennis mixed doubles, in some theaters has further opened up the openness of theater content.
In the future journey of the Chinese film market, will reduce costs, increase efficiency, and maximize genre content, which will become the two axes for film creators to achieve breakthroughs.
Cost reduction and efficiency improvement have swept all industries in the past few years, and the film industry is no exception. However, this year after several major director projects such as "Under the Stranger", "Decryption" and "Retrograde Life" failed at the box office, the top players in the industry Large projects must also consider reducing costs in the future, especially for creators like Chen Sicheng and Wu Ershan who make industrial blockbusters based on "burning money". Appropriate reductions in allocations should also be put on the agenda.
The ultimate genre is still the only magic weapon that prevails in this market. "Silent Kill" and "Alien: Death Ship" are two representative cases. Crime genre films and horror films, as well as another subtext of genre films, are The target audience is clear. Some people also believe that the success of these two movies is also due to "scale". In the current era of diversified content consumption, scale on the big screen still has great mass appeal. Therefore, some people in the industry are calling for greater creative permissions.
As Mao Yu, executive deputy director of the National Film Administration, said when summarizing the summer performance at the 7th China Film New Power Forum: "The crisis of Chinese films has arrived, and change is imminent." The Chinese film market in the future will be full of problems, but solving the problems The method is only left to film production companies and front-line creators.
The external environment is not getting better, and the challenges in the film industry are definitely getting bigger and bigger. After the noisy discussions and summaries of the summer schedule, the battle for the next important schedule is coming quickly. How to hold on, and how to find breakthroughs, the current Filmmakers shouldn't take too many chances.