Overnight, spot gold rose slightly, hitting a maximum of $2,469.91 and a minimum of $2,432.09 during the day, and finally closed at $2,456.58. In the European market today, gold fluctuated within a narrow range and is currently hovering around $2,463.
html Stocks surged on the 2nd!
Overnight, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher. As of the close, the Dow rose 1.39% to 40563.06 points; the S&P 500 rose 1.61% to 5543.22 points; the Nasdaq rose 2.34% to 17594.5 points, recording its sixth consecutive daily rise.
Overnight, the economic data released by the United States encouraged the market, Investors' concerns about the US economic recession have eased .
U.S. retail sales increased by 1.0% month-on-month in July, far exceeding the 0.3% forecast by analysts.
According to the U.S. Department of Labor, the number of people filing for unemployment benefits last week was 227,000, and 235,000 were expected. In the week ended August 3, the number of people continuing to apply for unemployment benefits dropped to 1.864 million, compared with expectations of 1.875 million.
The latest data dispelled concerns that the economy may be slipping into recession. Although a hiring slowdown caused a brief but sharp market panic last week, strong retail sales data showed that the impact of any contraction has not spread to consumers. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist of LPL Financial, said that the economic slowdown is happening, but it is definitely controlled and there is really nothing to worry about.
In addition, the Fed Musallem said that monetary policy is in a state of moderate tightening, and without further shocks, inflation seems to have returned to a track consistent with the 2% target in the long term; service and housing inflation remain somewhat stubborn, and anti-inflation is still More work needs to be done; the labor market is no longer overheated, the balance of risks in inflation and the job market has changed, and the time for policy rate changes may be around the corner.
Currently, futures traders have raised the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Fed in September to 74.5% from 65% on Wednesday night.
In terms of U.S. stocks, from the overall point of view of the data, the probability of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy is greater than a "hard landing" . From the perspective of air travel, amid the surge in travel during the summer, the number of daily passengers traveling at U.S. airports recently exceeded 3 million, setting another single-day record. Data on restaurant traffic, retail sales and hotel stays remain strong. Strong growth in corporate profits has helped stocks stabilize during a recent bout of volatility. Data from factset show that profits of S&P 500 companies are expected to increase by 10.9% year-on-year, which is better than analysts expected at the end of June and will set the largest quarterly increase in more than two years. Wall Street expects overall corporate earnings this year to post their biggest gain since 2021.
It is also worth mentioning that Japanese stocks suddenly surged.
In early trading today, the Nikkei 225 opened higher and moved higher. As of press time, it has gained 1120 points, up more than 3%, and has rebounded by more than 20% from the low on August 5.
Previously, just as the global central bank was about to enter a major cycle of interest rate cuts, Japan suddenly announced an interest rate hike , which became the trigger for the Japanese stock market to fall last week.
Bruce Kirk, chief Japan equity strategist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said foreign investors are looking to buy Japanese stocks as the stock market regains its footing after suffering its biggest drop since Black Monday in 1987.
Investors should take advantage of last week's pullback to buy, the strategist said, as the recent sell-off is more technical than fundamental driven , which is similar to the 2008 global financial crisis and 2011 Fukushima This was different during a nuclear accident, when there were social and systemic risks. He said there had been signs of overseas demand in the past few days after stocks fell more than 20% last week from a record high in July.
In addition, The improvement of the global economic environment has weakened the market's concerns about future uncertainty. The better-than-expected retail sales data greatly eased market concerns about a U.S. economic recession and also reduced investor expectations for a sharp interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year.
In addition, investors also need to pay attention to news about the international situation.
North Korea, Russia, sudden!
According to the Korean Central News Agency's report on the 16th, North Korea's supreme leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin exchanged congratulatory messages on the occasion of North Korea's "Motherland Liberation Day" (August 15, known as Liberation Day in South Korea). In this congratulatory message, Putin stated that firmly believes in effectively implementing the agreement reached at the Russia-North Korea summit in June and will continue to expand mutually beneficial cooperation between Russia and North Korea. This is not only fully in line with the interests of the Russian people, but will also contribute to the protection of the region. Contribute to stability and security. Kim Jong-un expressed his belief that the two countries will win in the process of realizing regional peace and international justice.
The Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty signed by Russia and North Korea in June this year is a breakthrough document that elevates cooperation between the two countries to a new level. The treaty stipulates that when any contracting party suffers aggression, the other party will provide it with assistance.
In addition, there are new developments in the US election. The vice presidential candidates of the two parties are scheduled to debate in early October.
On August 15, local time, U.S. Republican vice presidential candidate and Ohio U.S. Senator James Vance said that he agreed to meet with Democratic vice presidential candidate and Minnesota Governor Tim Wall on October 1 This is for debate .
Previously, ABC announced on the 8th that Trump had agreed to debate Harris on September 10. Trump has repeatedly expressed his desire to participate in debates hosted by Fox News in the United States in recent days, but the Harris team has not accepted it.
Jintou.com: 8.16 gold trend analysis
Picture source:Jintou.com
From a technical point of view, the 4-hour level is trading sideways here. The trend is more important today. If it does not start upward, it is already very good. Downward If so, it would be better for short sellers.
Currently the bulls still have the advantage, but the chance of going straight up is relatively small because the 4-hour level has not been sorted out here.
From a trading point of view, the volatile trend continues. Although it is strong, as mentioned above, the opportunity is smaller, but it is not advisable to go short directly. Wait until the end of tonight to see the outcome of the battle for the daily level 5 moving average.
