In recent times, there have been frequent important personnel changes in Ukrainian politics. The former Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Army Zaluzhny was appointed as Ukraine’s Ambassador to the UK, and many Ukrainian ministers’ positions are vacant. However, at this time, Russia also ushered in a "political earthquake" that attracted worldwide attention.
After Putin's inauguration ceremony, Putin officially entered his fifth presidential term and formed a new government as usual. Many senior Russian officials, including Lavrov, were retained in their posts. However, shockingly, the Russian Defense Minister was suddenly replaced. .
According to Xinhua News Agency, on May 12, Putin signed a presidential decree appointing Shoigu as Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, and his position as Defense Minister was taken over by Andrei Belousov.
Putin’s move must have a profound intention, and it is likely to release three important signals.
First, Putin may also be dissatisfied with Shoigu's performance as defense minister.
First of all, from the perspective of actual power, Shoigu is not promoted, nor can it be regarded as a flat transfer. Shoigu’s power now is not as good as when he was the Minister of Defense. The Security Council of the Russian Federation is often the "retirement group" for former important figures in Russia. After Medvedev was removed from the center of power, Putin also placed Medvedev here and appointed Medvedev as the deputy chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation;
Secondly, after the war between Russia and Ukraine, the performance of the Russian army was indeed lower than the expectations of all parties, and Putin may also have opinions. At the beginning of the war, the Russian army came with great force. However, the Russian army soon faced the embarrassing scene of withdrawing its troops from Kiev and losing three important towns in four days in the direction of Izyum. For more than a year, the Russian army struggled to attack Wudong and Wunan. Advancement was unusually slow. So, whether Shoigu is responsible for this cannot but be thought-provoking;
In addition, the founder of Wagner has repeatedly "bombarded" Shoigu, accusing Shoigu of being responsible for the Russian soldiers who died due to lack of ammunition, although Prigo Zhin died in a plane crash shortly after the "Wagner Incident", but the impact of Prigozhin's accusations has only lingered.
Second, Russia may have to adjust its war route.
Who is Belousov who succeeded Shoigu as Defense Minister? He previously served as the First Deputy Prime Minister of Russia, the Minister of Economic Development of Russia, and the Economic Advisor to the President. He is an important high-level economic expert in Russia, and is especially proficient in "mobilizing the economy."
Since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war, Russia has been quite restrained in its investment in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It has repeatedly denied that Russia has any plans to carry out general mobilization, and it has not significantly increased the scale of military recruitment.
However, just recently, the situation has changed. On the one hand, the Russian army suddenly launched a large-scale offensive in the direction of Kharkov, and the Russian army seems to have a lot of appetite; on the other hand, the trends in the West are increasingly making Russia wary. France has repeatedly advocated sending troops to Ukraine, and NATO has frequently launched military operations against Ukraine. Russia is flexing its muscles, and the United States has resumed military aid to Ukraine. Russia has to worry that the West will continue to increase investment in aid to Ukraine, and even completely abandon the "red line."
In order to cope with the new war needs, Russia not only needs to adjust its fighting style, but also needs to consider how to adapt to the Russian economy. War is a continuation of politics and requires economic support.
Thirdly, the military expenditure pressure brought by the Russia-Ukraine conflict on Russia continues to increase.
html On May 12, the Kremlin focused on Russia’s military spending. According to a reference report on the 12th, Kremlin spokesman Peskov said that the budget share of the Russian Ministry of Defense and powerful departments has been rising. Not long ago it was 3%, and recently it has increased to 6.7%. Peskov emphasized that this One point is "extremely important" and requires "special attention."What is particularly striking is that the Kremlin linked the current situation in Russia to the Soviet Union in the mid-1980s, pointing out that at that time, expenditures by the powerful sector accounted for as much as 7.4% of the economy. You must know that the Soviet Union was on a decline in the mid-1980s, and excessive military spending was also considered one of the important reasons for the disintegration of the Soviet Union. At this time, the Kremlin focused on reminding the military expenditure issue, which shows that the war has brought considerable economic pressure to Russia. Russia has learned from history and is extremely vigilant about this.
So, Russia chose Belousov, who is more proficient in economics, to replace Shoigu. It may be because high military spending requires a defense minister who can better deal with economic problems, or it may be because it hopes Belousov can use military spending more efficiently. .
