51 The mule and horse holiday is over, today is the first day of work.
Looking back, there are quite a few big things worth paying attention to this holiday season.
01
During the May Day A-share market close, Hong Kong stocks rose significantly, especially technology stocks. Chinese concept stocks, including those in the United States, also experienced relatively large gains.
There is a high probability that A-shares will open higher after the holidays.
Lao Nan in "Internal Reference No. 16" began to remind people to step back on March 14th. After that, many indexes experienced a 5%-7% retracement, and many individual stocks also experienced a 20%-20% retracement. Retracement.
will be reminded before the holiday on April 24th, and the backlash will end.
However, if it opens significantly higher tomorrow, you don’t necessarily have to chase the high. You can wait until it falls back before entering. At present, there is a high probability that the high point in March can be easily broken.
As we said before, the domestic economy is switching between major cycles, which is indeed not good, but it is not as bad as the stock market reflects. The repairs that need to be made will still be repaired.
includes overseas markets, typically Europe and Japan. In fact, the economic data is much worse than that of China, but the stock market has obviously gone too far.
Many overseas investment banks issued reports indicating that macro hedge funds began to sell Japanese stocks and cover existing short positions in Hong Kong.
For example, in the past two days, everyone has been watching the Buffett shareholder meeting and talking about value investing. However, when the valuation of A-shares is really low, they dare not take action.
02
During the long holiday, there is also a very important real estate policy introduced.
The notice clearly requires that if the sale period of commercial housing exceeds 36 months, the transfer of new commercial housing land should be suspended; between 18 and 36 months, "the amount of revitalization will be the amount of supply." It can be said that the policy of
is reasonable but unexpected.
It makes sense that it is implementing the spirit of comprehensive destocking; unexpectedly, restrictions on land sales have put new pressure on the local finances of many cities.
Some people on the Internet have compiled statistics on cities with residential demolition cycles of more than 36 months, but it is not official data after all. You can refer to the following:
Combined with Nanjing’s trade-in plan before the holiday (this plan actually has many stories, but it is not suitable The public account wrote that Uncle Pomegranate had already analyzed it on "No. 16 Internal Reference" before the holiday), and many cities have also introduced various policies to destock new homes.
It is expected that in the next few years, real estate policies will be highly focused on destocking.
03
The third important thing is also a policy. On the last day before the holiday, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued the "Guidelines for the Operation of Private Securities Investment Funds."
The reason why this policy has attracted great attention in the industry is not only because it has implemented more detailed regulatory requirements for the multi-trillion private equity industry, including trusteeship and exit.
More importantly, the industry has also been worried about whether new selling pressure will be formed on the market during the policy transition period.
The private equity industry has suffered too much infamy in the past few years, including in the recently popular "City Within a City", where private equity and trusts have basically become synonymous with bad guys. If you are interested, I will write down my views on this drama later.
But in fact, the domestic private equity industry now has a scale of 20 trillion, and the secondary market alone has a scale of 5 trillion. It is already a very important participant in the market. You know, the total of public open-end funds, stocks and mixed funds is only 6.6 trillion.
However, due to the lowering of the threshold for private equity registration in the early stage, the industry is mixed. There are both high-level professional investors, as well as many low-level influencers, Internet celebrities, and even some who are scammers.
I have been receiving product consultations from customers in the past few years, and I am deeply aware of this mixed industry ecology.
Therefore, as supervision has become stricter in recent years, the scale of private equity managers has continued to decrease. It is expected that after the new regulations are introduced, a number of private placements will cease operations, which is very meaningful for evolving the market and eliminating bad coins.
Looking at the current policies, the short-term selling pressure on the market is extremely limited. In the long term, a group of small-scale managers with average performance will indeed be eliminated.
Conclusion
For the second half of the year, there is really no need to be too pessimistic, especially under the premise that the domestic capital market has taken into account the pessimistic expectations.
However, it is not suitable to be overly optimistic. Whenever a bull market comes, you still need to spend it with a peaceful mind and pay attention to the return of value.
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