Lai Qingde’s team list was announced first by Tsai Ing-wen. Tsai Ing-wen revealed in public a few days ago that Lin Jialong will serve as the head of Taiwan’s foreign affairs department, and Wu Zhaoxie will serve as the secretary-general of the Taiwan Security Council. This action surprised public opinion in Taiwan. Shouldn't Lai Ching-te be the one to announce this? Why is Tsai Ing-wen taking over?
Public opinion in Taiwan generally believes that Tsai Ing-wen was definitely not an accidental slip of the tongue. She was restraining Lai Qingde, intending to express to the outside world that she may retire after May, and her shadow will still stay in Lai Qingde’s administration, all the time. Highlight your influence.
In fact, judging from the current list of Lai Qingde’s administrative team, most of them are actually Tsai Ing-wen’s original administrative team. Moreover, Tsai Ing-wen and Lai Ching-te have a political quarrel. The two have engaged in internal fights within the Democratic Progressive Party in the past. No one knows whether Lai Ching-de will go to Tsai Ing-wen to settle accounts with Tsai Ing-wen once he has established a foothold in the future. . Although this idea sounds very unlikely, in the political field, anything is possible, and Tsai Ing-wen, who has worked hard in Taiwan's political arena for many years, understands this very well. Let’s analyze Tsai Ing-wen, who is preparing to “retire without rest”.
(1) Tsai Ing-wen suddenly "crossed the line" and helped Lai Qingde announce the team list
As May 20 approaches, the biggest news in Taiwan's political arena is the list of Lai Qingde's team members. As usual, Lai Qingde is announcing his own The administrative team list adopts a "successive delivery" method, that is, the appointment list of relevant personnel will be released in batches.
According to conventional logic, the announcement of the general list of team members belongs to the authority of Lai Qingde and Zhuo Rongtai, but what is surprising is that this time Tsai Ing-wen actually overstepped her authority.
According to reports on Taiwan's "Ling Media" website, Tsai Ing-wen suddenly announced several personnel appointments in public a few days ago to "help Lai Qingde". When introducing Lin Jialong and Wu Zhaoxie, she said: Lin Jialong will succeed Wu Zhaoxie as the future head of Taiwan's foreign affairs department. people, and Wu Zhaoxie will succeed Gu Lixiong as Secretary-General of the Taiwan Security Council.
Judging from the content, Lin Jialong's appointment is quite surprising, but the change in Wu Zhaoxie's position is in line with expectations. Because before this, media opinions on the island have revealed that Gu Lixiong will succeed Qiu Guozheng as the head of Taiwan's defense department, and Wu Zhaoxie will succeed Gu Lixiong as the future Secretary-General of the Security Council of Lai Qingde's administration.
Judging from the list of personnel previously released by public opinion on the island and the subsequent personnel appointments announced by Lai Qingde, it is estimated that no one will question this information, and this is most likely true.
However, Lin Jialong's future personnel appointments are in a window period. In fact, earlier when public opinion in Taiwan was discussing who Lai Qingde would appoint as the head of Taiwan's administrative agencies, Lin Jialong was on the list, and his probability was not low. Basically, it can be said that he was second only to Zhuo Rongtai. When Lai Ching-te announced that Zhuo Rongtai would be in charge of Taiwan's administrative agencies, the outside world immediately raised a question: As the current leader of the "Major Congress", what position would Lai Ching-te arrange for Lin Jialong?
This time, Tsai Ing-wen gave an accurate message: Lin Jialong will serve as the head of Taiwan’s foreign affairs agency. Lin Jialong responded to this in an interview on April 19. He joked that his position was accidentally exposed first. Judging from this sentence, Lin Jialong acquiesced. ,
In addition to what Tsai Ing-wen revealed, the most surprising thing is that these personnel appointments and announcements were actually announced by Tsai Ing-wen, not Lai Qingde. This is quite surprising.
From a normal perspective, the positions of Wu Zhaoxie and Lin Jialong should be announced by Lai Qingde or Zhuo Rongtai, and the positions they hold as secretary-general of the Security Council and head of Taiwan's foreign affairs agency are particularly sensitive and critical positions. In this way, these positions are the core of the Taiwan authorities.But the strange thing is, why did Tsai Ing-wen suddenly take over the position this time?
(2) The Kuomintang believes that Tsai Ing-wen will continue to retire and become the "supreme leader" of Taiwan.
Regarding this matter, public opinion on the island of Taiwan has exploded. Everyone is discussing it hotly. Tsai Ing-wen What does it mean?
The comments given by the Kuomintang are very interesting. The current representative of the Republic of China, Luo Zhiqiang, believes that when Lai Qingde formed the administrative team, he adopted the main axis of "cultivating cronies, cultivating new people (new trends), and getting rid of the British (British-style)". Tsai Ing-wen's move In order to counter Lai Qingde, this time Yue Chu announced the positions of Wu Zhaoxie and Lin Jialong on behalf of Lai Qingde. The relationship between Cai and Lai in the future is worth observing.
Judging from the team list announced by Lai Qingde, this is in line with Luo Zhiqiang’s comments. Lai Qingde’s cronies and his direct descendants “Nanliu” are entering Taiwan’s administrative agencies in a large scale. Although Zhuo Rongtai does not belong to the “new trend”, he He is very close to Lai Qingde, and he is also a member of the "Lai Qingde Reading Club". Not to mention Zhuo Rongtai's deputy Zheng Lijun, who is Lai Qingde's direct descendant and confidant. In the past, when Lai Qingde was running for chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party, he sent Zheng Lijun to get the forms for him.
However, judging from the list of personnel in several core positions, a large part of Lai Qingde’s team is still the previous team of Tsai Ing-wen’s administration. People like Gu Lixiong, Wu Zhaoxie, and Lin Jialong all hold important positions in the current Tsai Ing-wen administration.
Kuomintang Representative Wang Hongwei said: Gu Lixiong and Wu Zhaoxie are both direct descendants of Tsai Ing-wen. Now even personnel announcements are made by Tsai Ing-wen herself. Tsai Ing-wen herself has always been careful and prudent. She will never make such low-level mistakes as "slip of the tongue" Yes, Tsai Ing-wen simply wants to be the "supreme leader" of Taiwan.
Wang Hongwei further explained: It is very meaningful for Tsai Ing-wen to do this deliberately. Lin Jialong does not understand foreign affairs work and can be said to be a "senior intern". The person who really leads the island's foreign affairs work is Xiao Meiqin. , and she is a close confidant of Tsai Ing-wen. Tsai Ing-wen did this mainly to show to the outside world that even if she resigned in May, she will still have a very strong influence on the foreign affairs of the Lai Ching-de administration in the future.
If you look at it from this point of view, Tsai Ing-wen’s thoughts are quite profound. However, judging from personal abilities, it is actually Xiao Meiqin who is likely to lead the foreign affairs work of the Lai Qingde administration in the future. The position of deputy leader in Taiwan has always seemed very prestigious, but it often varies from person to person. For example, during Chen Shui-bian's period, Annette Lu served as Chen Shui-bian's deputy for eight years, but Annette Lu was more like a "mascot" without any authority. Chen Shui-bian later said in a self-report: Beware of your own deputy.
Tsai Ing-wen chose Chen Jianren as her deputy during her first term. However, Chen Jianren has a very calm personality, and Tsai Ing-wen is also very relieved about this deputy. Of course, in the process, Tsai Ing-wen also asked Chen Jianren to shoulder some important responsibilities. , such as responsible for annuity reform, etc. It’s interesting to say that Chen Jianren has been the leader of Taiwan for four years. When Tsai Ing-wen selected Chen Jianren to be the head of Taiwan’s administrative agencies in 2023, many people on the island did not know “who Chen Jianren is.”
Lai Ching-te's situation is even worse. In Tsai Ing-wen's second four years, Lai Ching-te and Annette Lu have both become "embarrassed women in the palace." In addition to appearing in public, Lai Ching-te has also been on many important issues. On the other hand, Lai Qingde almost disappeared. In 2023, Tsai Ing-wen visited the United States. At that time, in order to cope with unexpected situations between the two sides, Tsai Ing-wen left her confidant Gu Lixiong in charge. This move triggered questions from the outside world: According to conventional logic, shouldn't Lai Qingde be in charge at this time?
If the DPP had not suffered a disastrous defeat in the 2022 "nine-in-one" election and Lai Qingde had come to the fore, it is estimated that Lai Qingde himself would have continued to be "hidden" by Tsai Ing-wen.
So judging from the situation after the DPP came to power in the past, except for Chen Jianren’s situation, which was slightly better, Annette Lu and Lai Ching-te’s situation when they were deputy leaders of Taiwan was very bad.
However, Xiao Meiqin’s situation may be very different this time. First of all, she has rich experience in foreign affairs. She has dealt with Americans for many years and is very familiar with them. The reason why Lai Qingde chose Xiao Meiqin as his deputy this time , mainly to reassure Americans; in addition, Xiao Meiqin is a close confidant of Tsai Ing-wen, and both of them "love cats", so public opinion on the island described the two as "best friends", while Lai Qingde chose Xiao Meiqin as his The deputy, on the other hand, is also to reassure Tsai Ing-wen, so that Tsai Ing-wen can use all the resources in her hands to help herself.
Not long ago, Xiao Meiqin suddenly went to Europe for a tour, which highlighted a signal: Xiao Meiqin will be the leader of the Lai Qingde administration's foreign affairs work in the future.
In fact, in addition to showing that she still has influence on the Taiwan authorities after May, Tsai Ing-wen is anxious to announce the positions of Wu Zhaoxie and Lin Jialong on behalf of Lai Qingde. I am afraid there is another meaning behind it.
According to information disclosed by Taiwan's "Ling Media": Lai Qingde had previously "visited the thatched cottage three times" in order to appoint Lin Jialong as the head of Taiwan's foreign affairs department, but Lin Jialong never let go. In the end, it was Tsai Ing-wen who took the initiative, and Lin Jialong finally nodded in agreement. From this point of view, Tsai Ing-wen "crossed the line" and announced the matter for Lai Qingde. In addition to "showing merit", I am afraid she also needs to show that her influence in the DPP is stronger than Lai Qingde. This may also be shouting to Lai Qingde from a distance: Not all DPP members may buy Lai Qingde’s fault, but they will definitely buy Tsai Ing-wen’s fault.
It is worth noting that similar situations have occurred before. In the past, Lai Qingde wanted Xiao Meiqin to be his deputy during the election, but Xiao Meiqin never gave a clear answer. In the end, Tsai Ing-wen took the initiative and promised Xiao Meiqin that she would recall all her previous campaign teams. In the end, Xiao Meiqin nodded in agreement.
Taking this into consideration, and following Wang Hongwei’s previous analysis: it is not ruled out that Tsai Ing-wen wants to be the “supreme leader” of Taiwan after May.
(3) The relationship between Tsai Ing-wen and Lai will be more subtle in the future.
In response to Tsai Ing-wen's "surrogate acting", on April 19, Taiwan's "United Daily News" published a commentary article saying: Tsai Ing-wen is going to give Lai Qingde a "A show of force"?
Taiwan's "United Daily News" said: Tsai Ing-wen's sudden move caught people off guard and shocked the entire Taiwanese political arena. During the campaign, Lai Ching-te had been shouting that he should follow "Tsai Ing-wen's line" and "Tsai Ing-wen follows the rules". He even made a short film "On the Road" with Tsai Ing-wen, Xiao Meiqin and others in an attempt to further establish himself as a The image of "the heir to Tsai Ing-wen's line".
Of course, Lai Ching-te is not just talking. When forming the administrative team, although Lai Ching-te brought his close associates and direct relatives into Taiwan's administrative agencies, in general, his team is still the original team of Tsai Ing-wen's administration, and even Some key positions are still occupied by people from the Tsai Ing-wen era.
Regarding the appointment of Lin Jialong, there were many twists and turns. Lai Qingde was unable to deal with Lin Jialong. In the end, Tsai Ing-wen took action to solve this problem. This change in personnel arrangements is tantamount to a display of Tsai Ing-wen's political strength. Tsai Ing-wen's "pre-announcement" has her own intention to ensure that the arrangement will not change, but it also reveals the subtle relationship between Tsai Ing-wen and Lai.
Although Lai Ching-te said he would "respect Tsai Ing-wen," the fact that Lai Ching-te challenged Tsai Ing-wen in the Democratic Progressive Party more than four years ago still makes the latter feel stuck in her throat. This incident shows that Tsai Ing-wen has a "coordinator" status in the DPP that transcends factions. Although Lai Qingde seems to have the power after May, in fact, he still cannot reconcile with Tsai Ing-wen within the DPP. Comparable.
In the past, Tsai Ing-wen once told Li Yuanzhe: After 2024, it will no longer be her business. But judging from Tsai Ing-wen’s actions this time and her close relationship with Hsiao Meiqin, if she says that she will “live in seclusion in the mountains and forests” after May, I am afraid no one in Taiwan’s political circles will believe it.
Although Lai Qingde must now say that he "respects Tsai," from a practical perspective, any current leader will hope that his predecessor will "point the country." Therefore, the relationship between Tsai Ing-wen and Lai Qingde will be very complicated in the future. Worth observing.
Taiwan's "China Times" said in a comment: Because the list of Lai Qingde's team is very popular and has attracted much attention from the outside world, Zhuo Rongtai has repeatedly asked the outside world not to "nominate the mandarin duck spectrum", but on April 16, Tsai Ing-wen suddenly When the positions of Lin Jialong, Wu Zhaoxie and others are announced in public, I believe that there must be three lines on the faces of Lai Qingde, Zhuo Rongtai and others.
Lai Qingde has been with Tsai Ing-wen for many years and has experienced Tsai Ing-wen’s political skills. During this team formation, you will find that many key positions are basically the original members of Tsai Ing-wen’s administration.
When Lai Qingde formed his own administrative team, he seemed to be "coerced" by Tsai Ing-wen. From the time he chose Xiao Meiqin as his deputy, Tsai Ing-wen's shadow has been in his team, and it has never dissipated. It has become a Tsai Ing-wen’s “life extension indicators” after leaving office.
In fact, back to the roots, it was mainly because Lai Qingde's past radical "Taiwan independence" remarks made Washington feel uneasy, and this gave Tsai Ing-wen a chance. The factional culture of the Democratic Progressive Party has contributed to the fierce nature of the struggle. Tsai Ing-wen's "British clique" has made it clear that it will not be willing to decline after Tsai Ing-wen leaves office. After Xiao Meiqin confirmed that she holds the token of Tsai Ing-wen and the United States, the "British clique" Make another big move and show your presence. In the future, Tsai Ing-wen and her colleagues are bound to constrain Lai Qingde on some important issues.
If we look at the factional struggle within the DPP, Tsai Ing-wen’s actions this time are indeed related to the backlash of the “British faction”. Judging from the factional culture within the DPP, factions formed by people like this are often the most unstable. Before Chen Shui-bian stepped down, his "Justice Connection" quickly collapsed; after Hsieh Chang-ting went to Japan, his The "Xie Clan" also collapsed immediately. Tsai Ing-wen’s “British system” may inevitably follow in this footsteps.
In the past, within the Democratic Progressive Party, the "British faction" often competed with Lai Qingde's faction. Especially in the 2019 Democratic Progressive Party primary election, a lot of conflicts accumulated between the two factions. Now Lai Qingde is about to come to power, and the "British faction" naturally has to take precautions to see if Lai Qingde will retaliate or "wear small shoes". Against this background, it cannot be ruled out that Tsai Ing-wen's "transfer" may be related to this.
However, judging from Tsai Ing-wen’s actions this time, the relationship between Tsai and Lai after May is worth observing.
