The movie market is "off-season" but not slow. March to April after the Spring Festival is usually a cold period. After this year's Spring Festival, the movie market has ushered in a wave of "retaliatory consumption". As of March 10 On the same day, the 2024 box office (including pre-sales) exceeded 15 billion yuan.
" Mr. Red Carpet " and " Let's Shake the Sun Together " which were withdrawn from the Spring Festival schedule will also be launched this month. In addition, as of now, a total of 6 films are scheduled to be released during the Qingming Festival in 2024. Yin Tengyu, a senior analyst at Maoyan Research Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from China Times that the traditional "cold period" refers to the low average daily box office of the market because there are no major holidays. Generally, domestic blockbusters will not choose the "cold period" , making it more difficult for the market to heat up; therefore, the supply of imported films and buyout films is generally increased to ensure the supply of films in non-holiday schedules. The hotness of the schedule mainly depends on the popularity, quality and reputation of new films released. "Cold period" has good films released, and it can also become a "hot period".
The box office is still rising
"I haven't watched any of the Spring Festival movies, but I went to see "The Three Evils" as a revenge. It's a good movie worth going to the theater." Xiao Zhao told this reporter that he also The movie was rated 8 points on Douban.
"Zhou Chu Eliminates Three Evils" was released on March 1 this year. As of 16:00 on March 13, the cumulative box office has reached 420 million yuan, with a score of 9.5 on Taopiao and a score of 8.1 on Douban.
Although the box office of this year's Spring Festival movies hit a new high, it was also accompanied by many negative news such as withdrawals and filming. Therefore, with the release of more high-reputation movies, the traditional cold period from March to April has also become lively. , and on March 10, the 2024 movie box office (including pre-sales) exceeded the 15 billion yuan mark.
Lighthouse Professional Edition data analyst Chen Jin said in an interview with a reporter from China Times that according to Lighthouse Professional Edition data, the total box office including pre-sales in 70 days in 2024 exceeded 15 billion, reaching this result 8 days earlier than in 2023. , mainly due to the excellent performance of the New Year's Day and Spring Festival stalls, the overall market performance has been stable and improving since 2024, and continues to recover.
"The box office in March 2023 (expected) is 1.907 billion yuan. Only 12 days have passed from March 1 to March 12, 2024. The box office in March this year has reached 1.358 billion yuan, mainly due to the dark horse film "Zhou Chu Chu San" Chen Jin further said that the male audience of "Three Pests" accounted for as high as 48.3%, which was much higher than last year's average male audience share of 40.9%. The market's largest main demographic is 25-29 years old. The audience accounted for 36.8%, which is also very outstanding. The film has won the box office record for 9 consecutive days. The core is the audience's good reputation. Both ordinary ticket-buying audiences and movie fans recognize the content of the film.
Chen Jin also said, "We have noticed that the box office share of third- and fourth-tier cities has gradually increased since the release of "The Three Evils", which also proves that the film's reputation has gradually broken out from high-frequency movie fans to ordinary audiences."
Yin Tengyu also explained to reporters that the "cold" or "hot" of the so-called "cold period" is completely determined by the release of new films. For example, when "Zhou Chu Eliminates Three Evils" was initially released, third-party media predicted that it would be between 35 million yuan and 55 million yuan. The forecast was small. After the film was screened a week in advance, it gained a good reputation and its Douban score continued to rise. , and the downward trend in the box office of select screenings is obvious, the media raised the final box office to 110 million yuan to 230 million yuan; the film was highly discussed after its release, and its reputation was obviously broken, driving the "cold period" in March this year. Together, the average daily box office far exceeds that of the same period last year; and Maoyan currently predicts that the total box office of "Zhou Chu Destroy Three Evils" will reach 568 million yuan.
New movies are waiting to be released
According to the reporter's understanding, in March, there will be films such as " My Brilliant Her ", " Kung Fu Panda 4", " Godzilla vs. Kong 2: Rise of an Empire " and other films. Chen Jin believes that the film supply in March is rich in genres and is expected to significantly exceed the box office results in March last year.
In addition, "Mr. Red Carpet" and "Let's Shake the Sun Together" which were withdrawn from the Spring Festival schedule will also be re-released this month. However, the box office results that the two films may achieve in March have been rescheduled. Xiang Kai, a young Chinese playwright and director, has pessimistic expectations."Originally, the withdrawal from the Spring Festival schedule was negative news. Judging from the results, these movies did not beat the first movie in the Spring Festival schedule at the box office; at the same time, in March this year, the movie market is crowded with blockbusters, and the two films will face the high demand. The fierce competition for word-of-mouth Hollywood movies will even squeeze the movie box office." Xiang Kai told a reporter from China Times.
Yin Tengyu also told reporters that after "Mr. Red Carpet" was scheduled to be released again on March 15, there was no more publicity action and basically chose to re-release it naked; as of 12 o'clock on March 13, the pre-sale box office of the film on the first day Only 80,000, which has minimal impact on the same market. "Let's Shake the Sun Together" is scheduled to be released again on March 30. Marketing actions are also very limited and the current popularity is low; the film was released during the Spring Festival and received good reputation. During the off-season period from March to April, competition is less , if the word-of-mouth can be better released, the total box office can have good room for improvement, but if the popularity and word-of-mouth diffusion are not effective, the total box office performance will be difficult to make a big breakthrough.
It is also worth noting that there are currently 6 films scheduled for the Qingming Festival in 2024, including " Plants and Trees in the World ". Actress Jiang Qinqin won the 17th Asian Film Festival for her outstanding performance in the film. Grand Prize for Best Actress.
Hollywood blockbusters come back?
In addition to Taiwanese movies and domestic movies, the high box office of movies in March is also inseparable from Hollywood movies.
At the just-concluded 96th Academy Awards ceremony, "Oppenheimer" won seven awards, including Best Director and Best Actor. In the eyes of many viewers, "Dune 2", which can compete with "Oppenheimer", is also popular. As of 16:00 on March 13, the domestic box office has reached 175 million yuan, and the Douban score is as high as 8.3 point. The media early predicted that the total box office of "Dune 2" would be 150 million yuan to 230 million yuan. Before its release, the film had a good reputation when it was released in North America, and domestic pre-sales were soaring. The media have raised their box office forecasts to 200 million yuan to 420 million yuan.
For comparison, "Black Panther 2" and "Ant-Man 3", which were released in February 2023, have been anticipated for a long time, but their overall box office and reputation performance were poor.
Regarding the decline and current favor of Hollywood films in China, Xiang Kai believes that firstly, under the influence of the general environment, the audience’s negative sentiment towards Hollywood films has increased; secondly, due to the impact of epidemic prevention and control, audiences prefer the Cure series. Movies or light comedy movies; thirdly, the production of Hollywood movies and the introduction of foreign movies into the country have slowed down for a time. Some series of movies have been "out of schedule", which has forced Hollywood blockbuster lovers to interrupt their movie-watching habits.
"After the epidemic, China's film consumption market has been on the rise. Film types that had been gradually 'abandoned' by the audience have regained the love of the audience; at the same time, domestic films have seen a phenomenon of 'homogenization' of content, although the box office performance is very high , but the artistic value and commercial value of the film are not in contrast, and the audience also has greater negative emotions towards this year's Spring Festival movies. The entry of Taiwanese films and overseas films has adjusted the movie-watching tastes of Chinese audiences and won the audience's popularity. ." Xiang Kai also analyzed.
Yin Tengyu analyzed that the total box office of the imported films "Argyle: The Secret Agent" and "Mrs. Spider: Sense", which were released close to "Dune 2", did not exceed 20 million, and the total box office of "Mrs. Spider" did not exceed 10 million. Low popularity before the release and low reputation after the release are the main reasons for the poor box office performance. "Kung Fu Panda 4" and "Godzilla vs. Kong: Rise of an Empire", which will be released in late March, have a relatively wider audience, but the current cumulative wants to watch is lower than that of the previous films. "Kung Fu Panda 4" performed well at the box office last weekend, with a screening score of 8.9, slightly lower than the 9.0 score of its predecessor "Kung Fu Panda 3". It is difficult to exceed the total box office of its predecessor by 1 billion. "Whether Hollywood movies can revive again depends on the quality and reputation of subsequent films," Yin Tengyu said bluntly.
Editor in charge: Huang Xingli Editor-in-chief: Hanfeng
