The 2024 Spring Festival box office exceeded 8 billion yuan, breaking the record in film history. (Visual China Map)
Of the nine Spring Festival movies, four were withdrawn. The 2024 Spring Festival movie finally ended in such a dramatic way.
According to data from the National Film Administration, the national movie box office from February 10 to February 17, 2024 was 8.016 billion yuan, setting a record for the same period. The top four box office movies are "Hot and Furious" (2.718 billion yuan), "Flying Life 2" (2.398 billion yuan), "Bear Infested: Reverse Time and Space" (1.389 billion yuan), "Article 20" (1.34 billion yuan) yuan), accounting for 97.8% of the total box office.
Some people are happy and some are worried. During this period, four films that were trying to compete in the Spring Festival have announced their withdrawal. On February 14, "Let's Shake the Sun Together" stated that "there was a major mistake in the selection of schedule" and announced that it would be postponed to March 30; on February 16, "Mr. Red Carpet" announced that it would withdraw from the Spring Festival schedule. "After The team has carefully considered... to re-select the schedule to meet with you." On the same day, "Huang Pi: The God of Wealth Cat" announced its withdrawal, "I have to say goodbye to you all in advance"; on February 17, "Bajie: The Lower World of the Canopy" " stated that "after discussion, the team will withdraw from the Spring Festival schedule and choose a date to meet with children across the country."
A similar situation occurred during the Spring Festival in 2023. Faced with strong enemies such as "Man Jiang Hong" and "The Wandering Earth 2", "China Ping Pong: Jedi Strikes Back", which was released for two days, announced that it would be withdrawn and postponed, "due to the publicity and distribution team's decision-making, There were major mistakes and serious deficiencies in the preparation and promotion work, which caused the film to fall into a particularly passive situation during the Spring Festival."
In the past, there was no shortage of movies changing gears, but most of them happened before the official release, and were rescheduled for various reasons. The collective withdrawal of four movies during the 2024 Spring Festival was a change made after they had been released and achieved a certain box office, and are considered to have started a trend of regular movie withdrawals.
The two reasons for changing the schedule are very different. Meng Yuan, who is engaged in film production and publicity work, told Southern Weekend reporters that the reasons for the pre-screening change are complicated and may be due to policy reasons. "The National Film Administration put forward new content modification opinions based on the requirements of the co-review parties. The film "It is too late for the revision and review to be released in the original schedule"; or due to market reasons, "there are very competitive films in the original schedule, which makes the original film unable to reach a suitable scheduling rate, affecting pre-sales or poor pre-sales; the film There have been disputes and negative public opinion among the producers and creators."
The withdrawal after the release can basically be attributed to box office factors. "The movie has poor box office, too few films are scheduled a few days after the release, and the competitiveness is poor during the schedule, making it difficult to recover the money at the box office."
"For the Spring Festival, four of the eight new films (excluding "The War" released on February 16) were withdrawn within one week after their release. This is unprecedented." Senior filmmaker Guan Yadi told Southern Weekend Reporters analyzed that the Matthew Effect in the movie market is intensifying. In the past, the last-ranked Spring Festival movie had about 200-300 million in box office revenue. However, this time, "Let's Shake the Sun Together" and "Mr. Red Carpet" were only It has a box office of 80 to 90 million yuan. The reason may be related to the audience's consumption power, consumption habits, overlap of film types, distribution strategy, the inclination of data push on short video platforms, etc. When
film producers determine the schedule, they will comprehensively consider a number of factors. The more popular the schedule, the higher the promotion budget. (Visual China Picture)
"Isn't it appropriate to cry in the theater?"
"Mr. Red Carpet" has changed its schedule twice, in November 2023 and February 2024 respectively. When the film was rescheduled for the first time, the film crew released a short video with quite a dark sense of humor: Director Ning Hao and starring Andy Lau were on the phone. Ning Hao told Andy, "Our movie has to be rescheduled, it's New Year's Day." Andy asked, "Whose is it?" What’s your idea?” Ning Hao replied, “The employer’s idea.”
"Mr. Red Carpet" had a box office of 84 million yuan before it was withdrawn, with a Douban score of 6.8. Huanxi Media, the film's sponsor and first producer, was co-founded in 2015 by Dong Ping, Ning Hao, Xu Zheng and Xiang Shaokun, and was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Directors as shareholders also include Chen Kexin, Wong Kar-wai, Zhang Yimou, etc.
There are 15 major Chinese movie schedules including New Year's Day, Spring Festival, and Valentine's Day. From release to release, the duration of the schedule, the number of moviegoers, and the overlap rate with holidays all affect box office revenue, so that The Spring Festival, Summer and National Day stalls have become hot spots to compete for.
Many industry insiders confirmed to Southern Weekend reporters that domestic film schedules are independently determined by producers and distributors (collectively referred to as film producers). The process is not complicated. Generally speaking, after the production of a domestic film is completed, it needs to be submitted to the National Film Administration for review. The film studio usually reports two schedules and a screening plan to the film bureau, and most of the film bureaus will give their approval. After obtaining a public release license from the Film Bureau, the film studio will officially announce the film's schedule to the outside world. Sometimes, before some blockbusters receive a release permit, the schedule may be announced in advance in order to build momentum. After the schedule was confirmed, the film crew began to build momentum and publicity, conduct preliminary communication with theaters across the country, and determine the key time period.
According to Guan Yadi, a film can be released early or late. Some are released one or two years in advance, such as "The Wandering Earth 3"; others are hastily released temporarily, leaving only one or two weeks for announcement. "Generally speaking, it is safer to announce the official release date one or two months before the release date." There is a lot of wisdom in how
film producers choose their schedules. Gao Jun, known as one of the "Three Musketeers of Distribution", once said in his early years that Chinese film schedules are "fixed schedules for blockbusters, and gaps for small films." He also summarized two rules for the scheduling of small and medium-sized films: there are many blockbusters, but small films are not available; if you are not afraid of tigers, you are afraid of wolves.
In addition to the film production cycle and the progress of obtaining a public release license, Guan Yadi believes that there are many factors to consider in setting the film: the production volume of the film and the corresponding box office target (minimum break-even point); the market performance of previous years in the same period; Available publicity and distribution budget; approximate publicity and distribution strategy and focus; competing films in the same period; time limit for completion of release, etc.
Meng Yuan told Southern Weekend reporters that the Spring Festival stalls have always been independently determined and competed freely. "If the film is suitable for both the Lunar New Year and Spring Festival festivals, it is necessary to consider competitors' schedules and choose a schedule based on the quality of the film. Each film company competes for the Spring Festival slot by winning over audiences through publicity and marketing, and by releasing and arranging films to gain support from theaters."
seems to be independently determined, but in fact it is a game of market choice. Different people have different choices of movies in different periods. For example, the Spring Festival period is more suitable for family fun, the Lunar New Year period prefers comedy-themed movies, the Valentine's Day period is suitable for romance movies, and the National Day period prefers movies with main themes, etc.
"The biggest consideration for everyone whether they can get into the Spring Festival stalls is whether they have a budget. The bigger the slot, the higher the cost. For example, my promotional expenses may be 10 million, and someone else has 100 million, so what is the investment of my 10 million? There is no volume." Pao Pao, who has been working in film distribution for many years, told Southern Weekend reporters. She believes that the schedule of "The Annual Party Can't Stop", which will be released during the Spring Festival, is "very well chosen". The starring actors Dapeng and Baike obviously do not have the box office appeal of Shen Teng, Andy Lau and other cast members. "The Annual Party Can't Stop" is in It was released on New Year's Day and also resonated with working-class moviegoers at the end of the year.
In the ten years from 2014 to 2024, the box office share of first-tier cities dropped from 23.2% to 16%, while the box office share of fourth-tier cities increased from 12.1% to 22.1%, which means that the number of moviegoers will further decline. Shen. Meng Yuan analyzed that "Mr. Red Carpet" is a "literary film with a large cast and an unpopular theme". "The threshold for watching elegant comedies is high. The entertainment industry is self-indulgent, but audiences outside the industry are generally indifferent." At the show Meng Yuan watched, he noticed that there were more than a dozen spectators in one session, seven or eight people left the show early, and there were a few sleepy ones.
Li Yanlu, manager of the Quancheng Road store of Jinan New Century Cinema City, also observed that for some moviegoers during the Spring Festival, it seemed like they had gone to the wrong set to watch "Mr. Red Carpet". He saw a middle-aged audience member fall asleep directly during the movie. .
Li Ying, who has participated in the distribution of a certain top box office movie, believes that the choice of schedule may be discussed within the industry.He understood the reason why "Mr. Red Carpet" was scheduled for the Spring Festival. After all, this movie is considered a comedy in terms of genre. On the contrary, he was surprised by another withdrawn movie "Let's Shake the Sun Together" because the theme did not match the movie schedule.
The main producer behind "Let's Shake the Sun Together" is Lianrui Pictures. In 2022, the summer movie "Life Events" produced by it received a total box office of 1.7 billion yuan and was considered a model of "using small to make a big impact", but this time it encountered a Waterloo during the Spring Festival. Li Ying was deeply impressed by the release at that time. It was still during the epidemic lockdown period. "There were not many films at that time, but the film studio dared to release it."
"Let's Shake the Sun Together" organized a large-scale business viewing among theater managers a few years ago. After watching it, Li Yanlu asked the distributor why it chose the Spring Festival release, "For the Spring Festival family holiday, even if the quality is good, it still makes people cry in the theater. Isn't it appropriate?"
"Let's Shake the Sun Together" held an event on Valentine's Day on February 14th. The film crew provided wedding candies and flowers, but a withdrawal notice was issued after Valentine's Day. "Everything was very sudden," Li Yanlu said. "The film is the best of Han Yan's trilogy." Director Han Yan's first two films, "Get Out!" "Tumor King" (511 million yuan) and "Send You a Little Red Flower" (1.432 billion yuan) did not have the same Douban ratings as "Let's Shake the Sun Together", but both achieved outstanding box office results during the period.
Spring Festival, a battleground for capital
As of February 19, from 2014 to 2024, nine of the 19 domestic films with a box office of more than 3 billion yuan were born during the Spring Festival. From 2016 to the present, except for 2020, there are generally about eight films in the Spring Festival, and the box office of the top films is basically more than 1 billion yuan. This is why the Spring Festival period has become a must-have for blockbusters.
Ning Hao talked about "hot movie schedules" in a recent interview: "This is a relatively helpless way for everyone. There is no other way, so we are forced to this place. If the cost can be recovered on the weekend, then why should I squeeze in here?" (Theatrical movie) consumption has obviously changed from weekend consumption to holiday consumption. In fact, this is not a very optimistic situation. It is also a phenomenon and change in the market, which appeared after short videos."
Huanxi Media said It was disclosed in the 2023 semi-annual report that the total filming expenses of "Mr. Red Carpet" (formerly known as "Celebrity") were approximately 260 million yuan, of which Ning Hao's director fee was 24.6 million yuan. Under huge cost pressure, "Mr. Red Carpet" finally chose to bet on the Spring Festival, the largest schedule for Chinese movies, in order to recover the cost due to the huge number of moviegoers.
The industry often talks about "three times the money back", which refers to the fact that under China's movie box office sharing policy, the film studios share 36.9% of the money. In other words, the box office of "Mr. Red Carpet" must be at least 720 million yuan to recover the cost. Before its withdrawal, the box office of "Mr. Red Carpet" was only 84 million yuan, with a Douban score of 6.8, and it was far from making money back.
During the previous Spring Festival period, Huanxi Media enjoyed box office benefits. Zhang Yimou's film "Man Jiang Hong" produced a box office of 4.5 billion yuan, becoming the box office champion of the 2023 Spring Festival period and ranking sixth in the box office list in Chinese film history. The financial report specifically mentioned that "River Red" "contributed considerable revenue to the group's performance in the first half of the year." At 10:16 in the morning trading on February 19, 2024, Huanxi Media's stock fluctuated, with the stock price falling rapidly by 6.45%.
Behind the Spring Festival schedule and the "fight", it actually involves the game between multiple film and television companies and capital.
Fang Xinli Media, the first producer of "Hot and Spicy", had failed its IPO three times before and later "sold itself" to China Literature Group. Stimulated by the box office performance of "Hot and Spicy", China Literature Group's share price rose by 17.8% in the three trading days after entering the Year of the Dragon. Beijing Enlight Media, the company behind "Article 20", expects its revenue from the film to be between RMB 400 million and RMB 460 million; and behind "Flying Life 2" is Bona Pictures, an established film and television company. This is the fifth time Bona has teamed up with Han Han. The previous four films have grossed about 4 billion in box office.
“The special nature of the Spring Festival schedule determines that it can only be a playground for ‘big players’. It is difficult for small and medium-sized films to enter, and there is no need to enter."Guan Yadi told Southern Weekend reporters, "In this special period, the efficiency of publicity and distribution fees is not high. A dollar during the normal period may only be worth 20 cents during the Spring Festival period. Only major movies with deep pockets and sufficient budgets can. Qualified to enter the Spring Festival stalls. "The publicity and distribution expenses for
films include materials, ticket reimbursement, film scheduling fees, etc." Pao Pao told Southern Weekend reporters, "Movies with particularly strong publicity and distribution can achieve a 1:1 ratio." "An unnamed film practitioner revealed to Southern Weekend reporters that except for fixed IPs such as "Bear Bears", other Spring Festival films will have to pay the New Year's Day filming fee to compete for filming slots. He also revealed that in 2024 Several leading films released during the Spring Festival this year paid for the schedule, which further increased the cost of the film.
Li Yanlu noticed that the ticket subsidy was back in 2024. When he was on duty at the cinema on the first day of the new year, he discovered some Audiences snapped up redemption coupons online for only a few yuan each, and then chose the cinema where they redeemed them. Behind these redemption coupons are actually real money investment from major film studios. "In fact, the purpose is to make their films available in advance. The sales will be better, and the studio will add more shows after seeing the popularity."
"Bajie: The Lower World of the Canopy" is obviously unable to fight back under the attack of the Spring Festival blockbusters and big capital. Meng Yuan revealed, "The film studio I was eager to get the film released and get my money back as soon as possible after the release. Seeing that there were few films suitable for children during the Spring Festival this year, I took a gamble. The studio lost so miserably that the internal conflicts among the producers intensified, so they had no choice but to withdraw. "Meng Yuan has never seen online promotions, nor has he seen theater materials. The result of the lack of publicity and influence is that theaters dare not arrange more shows. And after watching the movie, Meng Yuan felt that the story and art were lower than expected. As for Another animated film "Huang Pi: The God of Wealth Cat", despite the release of materials, is not attractive enough.
After the film was withdrawn and re-released, it still had to face the torture of audience expectations and reputation. (Visual China Picture)
Will it be better after the film is withdrawn?
Paopao believes that the film producers who have withdrawn the film have a "gamble" mentality, "This year's Spring Festival schedule is generally relatively loose, and they will feel that there may be some space for them to enter. "
Li Ying analyzed that the advantage of the Spring Festival period is concentrated movie viewing. If the film studio is confident in the quality of the film itself, it will be easy to achieve high box office. Based on past experience, theaters will comprehensively consider the topics, actors, themes, reputation and other factors to schedule films. . Li Ying knew after seeing the first day's film schedule which films should be "pounced".
If it were in other schedules and not surrounded by strong enemies, "Mr. Red Carpet" with Ning Hao and Andy Lau might be able to get good results The box office, at least, will not be as bleak as it is now. Li Yanlu told Southern Weekend reporters that the summer season is long and can accommodate films of various themes. People are highly selective, and films of good quality can get a certain box office. The Spring Festival season is only one week long. At that time, "in a close fight, the outcome may be decided in one day."
Li Yanlu initially gave "Mr. Red Carpet" more than 10% of the film schedule, but after discovering that the market feedback was insufficient, he began to adjust the film schedule strategy. "(Later) almost all of them were gone. Filming scheduled. Firstly, fewer and fewer people are watching, and secondly, the timing of filming is getting worse and worse. (The film crew) may think that if you can’t beat it, you’ll have to start over. "
During the 2024 Spring Festival, several major blockbusters originally planned to "join together" and distribute through separate lines, but it was finally stopped by relevant departments on January 30. The so-called separate line distribution means that it will not be uniformly screened in theaters across the country, but will be distributed by different Different movies are released in theaters. In this way, the film studio can get more space in terms of film schedules, screenings, etc., but it undoubtedly infringes on the interests of the theaters.
During the New Year's Day holiday, "If You Are the One 3" began to be distributed in separate lines, and initially required theaters to have 15% The number of films scheduled, but the box office and reputation are still poor. Branched distribution may have a greater impact on small and medium-cost films than commercial films. Paopao believes that branched distribution is more suitable for films with niche themes. For example, if some art films adopt dedicated lines The release will not only save the cost of publicity and distribution, but also provide long-term support.
is the same as independently setting the file. There is no obvious restriction on the withdrawal of the file, and it is still decided by the film company.Meng Yuan told Southern Weekend reporters, "The key will not be extended for withdrawn films, and no new pre-sale shows will be opened. Tickets for already sold shows will usually continue to be screened."
The key for Spring Festival movies is generally about a week. After the film studio announced the withdrawal, the keys will no longer be updated, and the original unexpired keys can still be used. Guan Yadi said that "Mr. Red Carpet" was issued a withdrawal notice on February 16, but the latest round of keys is available until 24:00 on February 18, so it can still be scheduled for broadcast on the 17th and 18th.
Compared with changing the file before the release date, it is easier to withdraw the file. If the schedule is changed before the release date, the specific work rhythm of film scheduling and pre-sales at theaters and theaters will be disrupted, and not only will the films need to be rescheduled, but tickets will also be refunded. "The four films that have been withdrawn from the Spring Festival this time have basically been released for about 7 days. In fact, this withdrawal is based on the fact that there are very few films scheduled every day (even less pre-sales) and there is not much box office output in a single day. It will not disturb the daily work of theater chains and theaters much, and it will not cause any losses." Guan Yadi told a reporter from Southern Weekend.
However, a second release means taking greater risks. Guan Yadi analyzed that when the film is released for the second time, considerable publicity and distribution expenses will be invested, which increases the overall cost and increases the risk of the film, because most of the previously reserved publicity and distribution budget was spent during the first release. Will it be better if
is withdrawn and re-uploaded? Paopao was not optimistic about it, so he first withdrew and then launched again. The audience's psychological expectations had changed, and the film would eventually have to face the reputational torture it had accumulated previously.
After watching "Let's Shake the Sun Together", Li Ying believed that the film was about a couple suffering from a terminal illness and supporting each other, so it was more suitable for a Valentine's Day release. He previously estimated that the box office of "Mr. Red Carpet" would be around 300 million yuan. If it is re-released, it may face new competition.
• (Meng Yuan, Pao Pao and Li Ying are pseudonyms)
Southern Weekend reporter Zhang Rui
editor-in-chief Li Muyan
