This year’s Spring Festival is not as good as in previous years.
Although there are 8 movies scheduled, none of them are major productions. They are all assembly-line fast-moving consumer goods. Unlike last year, there was also "The Wandering Earth 2".
The backlog of inventory accumulated in the past three years has almost been cleared. When everyone turned around, it seemed that there was not much point in taking pictures.
Because from "River Red" at the beginning of last year to "Twinkle, Twinkle, Shining Star" at the end of the year, it has been proved that the box office password is the pandering style of short videos, rather than the elaborate fairy method.
The blind eye can see that "The Wandering Earth 2" has promoted the industrialization of Chinese films, but the box office has tended to favor the hopelessly illiterate "Man Jiang Hong". A closer look shows that the friendship is outweighed by the four ounces in the chest, and opportunists flock to it.
In 2002, Zhang Yimou's "Hero" opened the way for Chinese-language commercial films. The top box office hit in the mainland was the duo of Zhang Yimou and Feng Xiaogang, with Chen Kaige occasionally participating.
Only after Xu Zheng's "囧" in 2012, it became a competition for hegemony. In 2014, "Transformation 4" was the last glory of Hollywood. It was not until "Wolf Warrior 2" came out in 2017 that Wu Jing came from behind, one super and many strong The pattern is formed.
But I never expected that after 11 years of silence, Zhang Yimou would regain his throne with "Man Jiang Hong".
At the same time, Feng Xiaogang proved that times have changed with the hot-selling "If You Are the One 3", the old tricks no longer work, Hollywood has also disappeared, and it has been in decline since "Avengers 4".
Over the past two decades, box-office champions have gone from diverse genres to formula films.
's promotions are becoming more and more old school, like "Dwelling in the Fuchun Mountains", the marketing of bad movies with the same routine, quality is not important, catering is the most important, a generation will eventually grow old, but digital life will always be young.
Three steps for literature and art. Nutritious milk has almost disappeared, thirst-quenching boiled water occasionally appears, and chronic suicide poisons have become mainstream. "People are busy making money these days, who is watching movies? What is there to watch?" "
Among the 8 movies released during the Spring Festival, some of them will not have too low a box office, and cannon fodder can also get a share of the pie, because they are all practicing the four words "busy making money."
1. Jia Ling's "Hot", 2.2 billion-3.5 billion
Since Jia Ling said she lost 100 pounds, "Hot" no longer lacks popularity, and people's focus has shifted from remakes to authenticating. Fake.
In addition, Jia Ling has not shown up yet, and no Reuters photo has been leaked. Zhang Xiaofei and Lei Jiayin are also in charge of the promotion, and the sense of mystery is well preserved.
If after the movie is released, Jia Ling really looks like Sakura Ando and has extremely obvious weight loss before and after, even if the quality of "Hot and Spicy" is average, the reviews will show a good trend.
If weight loss is just a gimmick, and Zhang Xiaofei and she are swapped in the film, or if they are still fat after appearing in reality, the film will use technical processing, and a bloody storm will be swept away, and Jia Ling's popularity will also be affected. damage.
This is a double-edged sword for Jia Ling. The success of losing weight is indeed very inspiring, but the only point of the movie is this, so it is a bit of a waste of time. After all, no one has the obligation to pay for your weight loss.
2. Zhang Yimou's "Article 20", 1.88 billion-2.1 billion
"River Red" gave Zhang Yimou a taste of the sweetness. "Article 20" and "River Red" are almost carved out of the same mold.
The shooting time was extremely short, the post-production was extremely fast, and the cast was similar. Even one of the starring actors in "Article 20" was a second-generation TF, Yi Yang Qianxi's junior brother. The theme was comedy family fun and realistic emotional guidance.
In his later years, Lao Mouzi was truly unworthy of the title of "National Master".
His early awards, life-long masterpieces, explorer of commercialization of domestic films, and achievements as a director of the Double Olympics were enough to make him stand out among the others.
However, after "One Second" and "Above the Cliff", "Man Jiang Hong" was late, and "Article 20", which made people unable to watch the trailer, made matters worse.
Although it is a bit too early to draw a conclusion on "Article 20", how much expectation does Zhang Yimou have left now? It would be good if the score of "Article 20" is above 6.7.
3. "Flying Life 2" directed by Han Han and starring Shen Teng, 1.5-1.8 billion
Han Han's "Flying Life" has a box office of 1.728 billion. The box office forecast of the sequel is basically the same. According to Han Han's basic market and Shen Teng's Judging from its appeal, the box office of the second film should not be too far behind.
"Flying Life 2" is Han Han's comfort zone. After all, the first film is the second highest-rated work by director Han Han. As long as it does not commit the shortcomings of "Four Seas" and the story logic is reasonable, it will not only be a box office success, but Shen Teng's reputation will also be improved. one time.
4. "Bear 10", 1.38-2 billion
Among all box office predictions, "Bear 10" is the most stable.
was scheduled to be released early, while other companies were making wild announcements, but it remained unmoved, no matter the wind and waves, sitting firmly on the Diaoyutai, it could still make a fortune silently.
releases a big movie during the Spring Festival every year, making a lot of money every time. It is a real money-spinner in the industry. Many companies want to get involved, but the bald guy is not short of your money.
5. Han Yan's "Let's Shake the Sun Together", 700-880 million
"Let's Shake the Sun Together" is the last part of Han Yan's life trilogy, and the other two films have high box office.
《Get lost! "Tumor King" 510 million, "Send You a Little Red Flower" 1.432 billion, "Let's Shake the Sun Together" still continues the warmth + comedy model, which is quite suitable for the Spring Festival.
It’s just that the appeal of Peng Yuchang and Li Gengxi is not strong. Compared with other Spring Festival films, it is weak and can only rely on word of mouth to win. However, the average score of director Han Yan’s works is above 7 points, which is quite good among domestic films. , let’s wait and see.
6. "Mr. Red Carpet" directed by Ning Hao and starring Andy Lau, 350-800 million
"Mr. Red Carpet" has been withdrawn and re-scheduled. It is a bit uncertain to a certain extent, so the media's box office predictions for it are very conservative .
"Mr. Red Carpet" is not a popular comedy like Ning Hao's previous crazy trilogy, but a criticism close to "The Main Race", with a lot of cinephile elements added.
For ordinary viewers, there is a threshold for watching movies. If you can't understand these movies, you will be bored, but if you understand them, you will feel the beauty. The reputation of "Mr. Red Carpet" is bound to be polarized.
Huanxi and Bad Monkey have made a lot of money in the past few years. "Man Jiang Hong" and "All or Nothing" have made Ning Hao no longer worry about KPI, so now he starts to consider winning awards. Since he has chosen awards, the box office will naturally lose part.
7. "Broken War" and "Bajie: The Lower World of the Canopy"
"Broken War" is a Hong Kong police film directed by Pang Fat, one of the Pang brothers, and starring Ng Chun-yu and Simon Yam. It is almost certain to be a bad movie. .
The poster of "Bajie: The Lower Realm of the Canopy" imitates the particle ink painting of "Deep Sea". If you don't look carefully, you would think that Sun Wukong is holding a golden hoop. The story is the same as the old-fashioned "I can't help but control my destiny", which is the same.
These two movies are just for show. They are just cannon fodder. They don't take the work seriously and face the audience sincerely. They all want to take advantage of the opportunity to make a fortune.
The domestic film market is indeed cooling down now, and too many formula films have been produced since then based on box office considerations.
has destroyed the market balance, affected the audience's viewing habits and aesthetics, and buried truly thoughtful works. It's time for movies to talk about art, otherwise the bustling bubble will disappear and disappear into dust.
If you think more about and create more artistic films, the quality of the finished films will be higher, and the box office will also increase accordingly. Audiences, filmmakers, and the market will all benefit from this.
It’s not because of the box office figures. You step on me all day long on the Internet, I scold you, you sell miserably, and I learn from you. You are realist, I follow the theme, you address contradictions, and my emotional marketing follows suit.
If this is the case, no matter the audience, fans, or tap water will be changed by a certain movie, then it may be difficult for domestic movies to wait for the day when a hundred flowers bloom, and public opinion will become turbulent.
3. "Flying Life 2" directed by Han Han and starring Shen Teng, 1.5-1.8 billion
Han Han's "Flying Life" has a box office of 1.728 billion. The box office forecast of the sequel is basically the same. According to Han Han's basic market and Shen Teng's Judging from its appeal, the box office of the second film should not be too far behind.
"Flying Life 2" is Han Han's comfort zone. After all, the first film is the second highest-rated work by director Han Han. As long as it does not commit the shortcomings of "Four Seas" and the story logic is reasonable, it will not only be a box office success, but Shen Teng's reputation will also be improved. one time.
4. "Bear 10", 1.38-2 billion
Among all box office predictions, "Bear 10" is the most stable.
was scheduled to be released early, while other companies were making wild announcements, but it remained unmoved, no matter the wind and waves, sitting firmly on the Diaoyutai, it could still make a fortune silently.
releases a big movie during the Spring Festival every year, making a lot of money every time. It is a real money-spinner in the industry. Many companies want to get involved, but the bald guy is not short of your money.
5. Han Yan's "Let's Shake the Sun Together", 700-880 million
"Let's Shake the Sun Together" is the last part of Han Yan's life trilogy, and the other two films have high box office.
《Get lost! "Tumor King" 510 million, "Send You a Little Red Flower" 1.432 billion, "Let's Shake the Sun Together" still continues the warmth + comedy model, which is quite suitable for the Spring Festival.
It’s just that the appeal of Peng Yuchang and Li Gengxi is not strong. Compared with other Spring Festival films, it is weak and can only rely on word of mouth to win. However, the average score of director Han Yan’s works is above 7 points, which is quite good among domestic films. , let’s wait and see.
6. "Mr. Red Carpet" directed by Ning Hao and starring Andy Lau, 350-800 million
"Mr. Red Carpet" has been withdrawn and re-scheduled. It is a bit uncertain to a certain extent, so the media's box office predictions for it are very conservative .
"Mr. Red Carpet" is not a popular comedy like Ning Hao's previous crazy trilogy, but a criticism close to "The Main Race", with a lot of cinephile elements added.
For ordinary viewers, there is a threshold for watching movies. If you can't understand these movies, you will be bored, but if you understand them, you will feel the beauty. The reputation of "Mr. Red Carpet" is bound to be polarized.
Huanxi and Bad Monkey have made a lot of money in the past few years. "Man Jiang Hong" and "All or Nothing" have made Ning Hao no longer worry about KPI, so now he starts to consider winning awards. Since he has chosen awards, the box office will naturally lose part.
7. "Broken War" and "Bajie: The Lower World of the Canopy"
"Broken War" is a Hong Kong police film directed by Pang Fat, one of the Pang brothers, and starring Ng Chun-yu and Simon Yam. It is almost certain to be a bad movie. .
The poster of "Bajie: The Lower Realm of the Canopy" imitates the particle ink painting of "Deep Sea". If you don't look carefully, you would think that Sun Wukong is holding a golden hoop. The story is the same as the old-fashioned "I can't help but control my destiny", which is the same.
These two movies are just for show. They are just cannon fodder. They don't take the work seriously and face the audience sincerely. They all want to take advantage of the opportunity to make a fortune.
The domestic film market is indeed cooling down now, and too many formula films have been produced since then based on box office considerations.
has destroyed the market balance, affected the audience's viewing habits and aesthetics, and buried truly thoughtful works. It's time for movies to talk about art, otherwise the bustling bubble will disappear and disappear into dust.
If you think more about and create more artistic films, the quality of the finished films will be higher, and the box office will also increase accordingly. Audiences, filmmakers, and the market will all benefit from this.
It’s not because of the box office figures. You step on me all day long on the Internet, I scold you, you sell miserably, and I learn from you. You are realist, I follow the theme, you address contradictions, and my emotional marketing follows suit.
If this is the case, no matter the audience, fans, or tap water will be changed by a certain movie, then it may be difficult for domestic movies to wait for the day when a hundred flowers bloom, and public opinion will become turbulent.
