The results of the four major "referendums" in Taiwan were announced last Saturday, but the three counties and cities in northern Taiwan governed by the DPP, Taoyuan, Keelung, and Hsinchu, all voted for "four consents." Facing the upcoming 2022 county and city elections, the current DPP-member Taoyuan Mayor Zheng Wencan, Keelung Mayor Lin Youchang , and Hsinchu Mayor Lin Zhijian are all facing the challenge of choosing their successors. Taiwan's "China Times News Network" pointed out that although the outside world generally believes that the "referendum" is for "things" and not "people", and the result cannot be directly compared with the election of county and city mayors, it still makes it possible for the election at the end of next year to "turn the green field into the blue sky" The hidden worries of a comeback surfaced on the table.
Keelung Mayor Lin Youchang and "Green Committee" Cai Shiying
Especially in Keelung City, the voter structure has always been more blue than green. The results of the "referendum" brought hope to the blue camp. Although the Green Camp is full of confidence, it emphasizes that Mayor Lin Youchang has reversed Keelung's blue-green political board during his tenure. However, the Taiwanese public opinion website "TPOC Taiwan Issues Research Center" pointed out on the 21st that the number of votes cast in the four major "referendums" in Keelung City was not satisfactory, and the voice on the Internet was weak, which may be a warning sign for the green camp.
The blue-green confrontation shouted "four agrees" and "four disagrees". In the end, only 340,000 to 360,000 "disagree" sheets were collected in Taoyuan, 56,000 to 59,000 in Keelung, and 69,000 to 78,000 in Hsinchu City. Compared with the results of the 2018 county and city mayor election, Keelung City’s dissenting votes are only 55% to 58% of Lin Youchang’s original votes, and the proportion of vote loss is the highest among Keelung, Taoyuan, and Hsinchu counties. In fact, two of the four major "referendums" were related to Keelung, including "restarting the nuclear program" and "protecting algae reefs". Although Tsai Ing-wen told the citizens that Keelung is close to the Gongliao Nuclear Plant No. 4 and must vote against it, the citizens did not pay the bill, and the yes vote still led by 9,566 votes, which also became the focus of media discussion.
It is worth noting that on the 21st, "TPOC Taiwan Issues Research Center" released a trend chart of Keelung mayor's network voice volume. The unit analyzed Lin Youchang since the green camp launched the "referendum" speech at the end of October through the "QuickseeK Quick Analysis Public Opinion Database". network volume. It was found that, compared with other green camp public officials who have frequently voiced and gained attention for the "referendum" for more than two months, Lin Youchang's voice in this "referendum war" has been sluggish all the way. Overall, Lin Youchang's personal voice volume was 32,500, and the "referendum" related voice volume was only 3,119, accounting for only 9.6% of the total personal voice volume.
And the peak of his personal voice appeared at the end of October. The hot topic was because of the Keelung MRT issue that challenged Taipei Mayor Ke Wenzhe . The election situation also prevented him from accumulating more political energy due to the "referendum".
In addition, apart from Lin Youchang's little involvement in the "referendum" case and his lack of voice, the DPP's party office in Keelung City does not seem to actively speak out for the referendum issue. Comparing the changes in the voices of party officials in the seven counties and cities governed by the Green Camp, including Keelung City, Taoyuan City, Hsinchu City, Chiayi County, Tainan City, Kaohsiung City, and Pingtung County, on the topic of "referendum", the data shows that the Keelung Party Public office ranks last in the ranking of seven counties and cities.
As for the four major "referendums" this time, Keelung City had more votes in favor than votes in disapproval. In the "referendum" with the most votes of consent tied to the "general election", there was a gap of 72,000 votes to 56,000 votes. Although Lin Youchang responded a few days ago and explained that there are many complicated internal and external factors in the "referendum" vote, many people still believe that this reveals a warning sign of succession. Because, before Lin Youchang was elected mayor of Keelung in 2014, the number of pan-green votes for a long time fell between 65,000 and 70,000, which can be regarded as the size of the pan-green camp in Keelung City. But this time the Keelung Party’s official positions ranged from Lin Youchang to local public opinion representatives. They did not respond positively to the “referendum” issue, and the Internet voice was weak. In the end, they couldn’t even get 60,000 dissenting votes. This shows that there may be problems with local operations. Really There is a situation.
Looking at the opponent camp, Lin Youchang's term of office will expire next year, and the former "legislator" Xie Guoliang of the blue camp has already expressed his opinion to go out. Wu Guosheng, chairman of the Keelung City Party Committee of the Kuomintang, said that Xie Guoliang has set up a campaign team and started to deploy. He emphasized that according to polls, Xie Guoliang won the green camp opponent named by the outside world, the "legislator" Cai Adapt, and currently has a 60% chance of winning the election. I believe that the support rate will continue to rise in the future. (Lin Jingxian/Editor)