The interest rate for the first home will fall below 4.1%, and more than 20 cities will benefit from it

Within the scope of local policies, banks and customers can negotiate and determine the specific interest rate level of new first-home housing loans, which will help reduce residents’ interest expenses and better support rigid housing demand Reporter Yan Qinwen

Editor Zhang Wei

"Eligible city governments can independently decide to maintain, lower or cancel the lower limit of the local first-time home loan interest rate before the end of 2022." This heavy notice issued by the People's Bank of China and China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission instantly refreshed the circle of friends. Calculated according to the latest quotation, the lower limit of the current first-home loan interest rate is 4.1%. The release of the notice means that the lower limit of eligible urban first-home loan interest rates is expected to fall below 4.1%.

In fact, this is the second time that the financial regulator has adjusted the lower limit of the interest rate for first-time housing loans within this year. In May 2022, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a notice stating that the lower limit of the interest rate for commercial personal housing loans for the first set of housing will be adjusted to not be lower than the quoted loan market interest rate (LPR) minus 20 basis points for the corresponding period.

In addition, since the beginning of the year, the LPR with a period of more than five years has experienced multiple declines. The introduction of the latest policy measures will help support the city government to " apply policies according to the city " make full use of the policy toolbox and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Within the scope of local policies, banks and customers can negotiate and determine the specific interest rate level of newly issued first-home housing loans, which will help reduce residents' interest expenses and better support rigid housing demand.

It is worth noting that, in addition to the cities needing to meet the relevant conditions, the new policy targets incremental customers before the end of 2022. At the same time, since the lower limit of the first-home loan interest rate is lowered, it will have limited impact on existing housing loan customers.

At least 23 cities are expected to lower

Specifically, the notice proposes a phased adjustment of differentiated housing credit policies.

First of all, the notice defines the conditions and policy implementation time: For cities where the sales price of new commercial housing month-on-month and year-on-year both drop continuously from June to August 2022, before the end of 2022, the first home housing will be gradually relaxed. The lower limit of commercial personal housing loan interest rates. The lower limit of the interest rate policy for commercial personal housing loans for second houses shall be implemented in accordance with the current regulations. The

notice also pointed out that, in accordance with the principle of "policies tailored to each city", eligible city governments can independently decide to maintain, lower or cancel the lower limit of local first-home commercial personal housing loan interest rates in stages according to changes in the local real estate market situation and regulatory requirements. The People's Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission dispatched agencies to guide the implementation of the self-regulatory mechanism for pricing interest rates in the provincial market.

So, which cities currently meet the above conditions?

According to the data provided by the think tank center of E-House Research Institute, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities house price index data of the National Bureau of Statistics, at least 23 cities meet the requirements of the new policy of the central bank. Among them, there are 8 second-tier cities, namely Harbin, Lanzhou, Wuhan, Dalian, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Kunming and Guiyang. There are 15 third- and fourth-tier cities, namely Quanzhou , Wenzhou , Luzhou , Yueyang , Yichang , Beihai , Dali, Qinhuangdao , Zhanjiang , Baotou , Anqing , Jining , Changde , Xiangyang and Guilin .

“This type of city generally belongs to the current weak real estate transactions and excessive decline in housing prices.Or cities that last too long. "

In the view of Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of Merchants Union Finance and part-time researcher of Fudan University Financial Research Institute , in the case of sluggish residential housing consumption demand and weakening real estate market , It is important and urgent to adjust the lower limit of the first-home loan interest rate.

"Of course, this is only the adjustment of the lower limit of the first-home loan interest rate, not the first-home loan interest rate. The specific pricing is still determined by the bank and the customer. Different regions and different banks The actual interest rate may be different. "Dong Ximiao added, "From a regional perspective, some second- and third-tier cities may meet the adjustment conditions and make adjustments, but first-tier cities and some provincial capital cities are difficult to adjust; from the perspective of banks, it is expected that most banks will actually implement first-set housing loans interest rate floor. "

At the same time, some people in the financial industry reminded that in some eligible hot cities, such as rising house prices, the interest rates negotiated by banks and customers may be raised accordingly to meet the requirements of housing and not speculating; on the other hand, because the New Deal has a "stage In the view of many industry insiders, the New Deal will help reduce residents’ interest expenses and better support rigid housing demand.

Analysis of Centaline Real Estate Chief Teacher Zhang Dawei pointed out that nearly 80 cities across the country have lowered the first-home mortgage interest rate to 4.1%. If it continues to decrease, it can indeed reduce the cost of home buyers. The continuous interest rate cut is to implement the State Council's "support for housing rigidity and improvement needs" It will play a positive role in stabilizing market confidence and market expectations.

According to his calculations, taking a loan of 1 million yuan with a 30-year term as an example, if the monthly payment is reduced by 15 basis points, the monthly payment will be reduced by 88.48 yuan, and the accumulated monthly payment for 30 years will be reduced by 15 basis points. A reduction of 31,800 yuan.

However, not all homebuyers can enjoy the benefits of the New Deal. "I feel so bad when I just got on the car. "Some homebuyers expressed emotion.

In fact, after the completion of the LPR reform in 2019, the commercial personal housing loan interest rate consists of two parts: one is the corresponding period LPR, and the other is the base point (BP, 1BP=0.01%). Among them, LPR is a floating interest rate, which mainly refers to the level of LPR with a period of five years or more; while the base point is fixed when the home buyer signs a loan contract with the bank.

According to this notice, the one that is expected to be lowered this time is the first home loan The lower limit of the interest rate, that is, the base point, does not involve LPR. For those who have already bought a house, the base point has been fixed and will not change due to the new policy. Therefore, the new policy is only for new home buyers before the end of the year. The impact on stock buyers is limited.

However, since the beginning of the year, the LPR with a period of five years or more has been cut several times, with a cumulative reduction of 35 basis points. For stock customers who have chosen floating interest rates, it is expected to benefit in 2023.

Policies are expected to be further strengthened?

Favorable policies are currently in place, and the follow-up real estate market and related policies have once again aroused high attention.

On July 28, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee proposed that "the policy toolbox should be fully utilized to support rigid and Improving housing demand”; on August 24, the State Council executive meeting emphasized that local governments are allowed to use credit and other policies to reasonably support rigid and improving housing demand. On September 23, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of The regular meeting in the third quarter of 2022 also pointed out that the policy toolbox should be fully utilized according to the city's policies, support rigid and improved housing needs, promote the accelerated implementation of special loans for "guaranteed housing" and increase efforts as needed, and guide commercial banks to provide Supporting financing support, maintenance liveReal estate consumers' legitimate rights and interests, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.

"To what extent the annual economic growth target can be achieved, the real estate market is an important factor. The adjustment and optimization of real estate financial policies should be accelerated, and the relevant requirements for real estate loan concentration management should be relaxed in stages; through policy banks special loans, etc. Measures to leverage the credit funds of commercial banks and give special support to the project of "guaranteed delivery buildings"." Dong Ximiao pointed out.

Regarding the lower limit of second-home loan interest rates and the adjustment of housing loan interest rates in first- and second-tier cities, which are generally concerned by the market, many industry insiders believe that follow-up policies are expected to be further strengthened.

In Zhang Dawei's opinion, overall, the fine-tuning and easing policy content of real estate is getting wider and wider, and the policy strength is getting stronger and stronger. But at present, the confidence of the market is still not fully restored, and we look forward to more vigorous policies including funds for the continued construction of unfinished buildings, stock mortgages, and interest rate cuts.

According to the August financial statistics report released by the central bank on September 9, residents' loans increased by 458 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 117.5 billion yuan. Among them, the medium and long-term loans were mainly personal housing loans 265.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 160.1 billion yuan. "This means that the current real estate sector has not yet picked up." Some people in the industry pointed out.

"For personal housing loans, we should further increase the implementation of differentiated housing credit policies, accelerate the adoption of measures such as lowering the down payment ratio, canceling "recognizing the house and subscribing for the loan", and lowering the loan interest rate." Dong Ximiao also said, "The next step , There is still a lot of room for optimization in terms of how to better support the demand for improved housing, and the lower limit of the second housing loan interest rate should also be adjusted appropriately. Regarding the purchase restriction policy, it is possible to explore the implementation of "policies based on districts" and appropriately relax one Purchase restrictions in the suburbs of second-tier cities.”

(Reporters Wang Bo and Zhang Yingxin of Caijing also contributed to this article)