[Text/Observer Network Zhou Yibo]
is less than a week away from the 2022 US mid-term elections, Republicans have a ferocious offensive, not only widening the gap with their opponents in the battle for the House of Representatives, but also in their struggle for the majority position in the Senate, In some polls it even overtook Democrats.
And on the eve of the upcoming changes in the American political landscape, the movements of the former president Trump have attracted the attention of all parties.
On November 3, Reuters reported that three Trump advisers revealed that Trump will announce his candidacy in the 2024 presidential election this month. One of the senior advisers said that the specific announcement time will be before Thanksgiving (24th). Another source said that Trump's announcement of his presidential bid must be after "the Republicans win the midterm elections ."
For months, Trump has traveled to 17 states to cheer on his favored Republican candidate. The Associated Press analyzed that Trump is trying to show his influence and use the momentum of a possible "Republican victory" to promote him to become the leader of the party's primary election in the presidential election.
On the evening of the 3rd, Trump said in the last round of canvassing before the election in Sioux City, Iowa, "In order to make our country more successful, safer, and more brilliant, I am very, very, very likely to do it again (the campaign). , very, very likely, very, very likely.”
Former US President Trump Source: Reuters The entire House of Representatives of the US Congress and about one-third of the senators will be re-elected, and some states in the United States will also elect new governors.
At present, the Democrats are in the majority in both the House of Representatives (222:213) and the Senate (50:50, but the Democratic Vice President Harris is also the Speaker), but the advantage is not obvious, so whether the Republicans can be in the upcoming elections China's "turn over" and use it to help the 2024 U.S. presidential election has become one of the issues of widespread concern to the outside world.
Comprehensive US Political News Network (Politico) and the Associated Press reported that for several months, Trump, who has left the presidency for nearly two years but still maintains high popularity, has frequently appeared at campaign rallies in various states across the United States, favoring him. of Republican candidates on the platform.
According to statistics, Trump has held 30 campaign rallies in 17 states, in addition to dozens of online rallies and more than 50 candidate fundraising events. These include not only the " swing states " with anxious elections, but also the "deep red states" that are the main positions of the Republican Party.
Trump will also travel to Ohio and Pennsylvania for speeches in the remainder of the period leading up to the midterm elections -- two states that are "key battlegrounds" in the midterm and presidential elections, where Trump is Candidates backed by two states also managed to secure party nominations.
In the eyes of the outside world, once Republican candidates gain Trump's support, they will be "like a god" and enough to "kill the Quartet" in the party's primary election, which has also led some Republicans to yearn for his support.
For example, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida personally invited Trump to speak in Miami-Dade County in that state, even though the Republicans had previously expected to gain an advantage in the region.
Trump (left) with Rubio
"President Trump's campaign rallies [reached far beyond the state level -- they got national coverage and voters all over the country tune in." Trump spokesman Tyler Budovich said, "This 'last shot' is extremely important in pushing every Trump-backed candidate to win Tuesday's election.
The Save America PAC, which handles Trump's campaign, said that, including online fundraising, Trump raised a total of 100% for Republican candidates and Republican committees this election cycle. nearly $350 million.
Politico said that Trump's "cronyism" will also feel "heartache" for the Republican Party: on the one hand, it will lead to Republican candidates actively panning to Trump's "MAGA" stance (Make America Great Again, Trump's signature slogan), to win his support; on the other hand, whenever a candidate supported by Trump fails to win, he will also be heavily criticized by Trump supporters blame.
“People are going to vote noJoe Biden,” said David Bossey, an American political activist who has served as Trump’s strategic ally. “I think the Republican candidates will do very well on the ballot. , it doesn't matter whether President Trump supports them or not."
"The American people are watching Joe Biden, and that's what this election is about."
, October 22, Trump in Texas Robstown campaign rally Source: US " Newsweek "
"Republicans win, Trump will come back"
According to reports, independent election forecasters say the Republicans are likely to win the House of Representatives in the midterm elections A majority, and even a chance to control the Senate, would give them the ability to thwart various legislative agendas for incumbent President Joe Biden's remaining two years in office. The "Battleground Tracker" poll organized by
CBS (CBS) also shows that after the midterm elections, the Republican Party will win 228 seats out of a total of 435 seats in the House of Representatives, and the Democratic Party will drop to 207 seats, namely Republicans lead Democrats by 21 seats. However, the forecast has a margin of error of 12 seats.
CBS's "Face the Nation" program introduced the latest forecast results of "Battlefield Tracker" Video screenshots
polling agency "538" data shows that the Republican offensive is ferocious, not only opening the gap with its opponents in the battle for the House of Representatives, but also in the Senate majority. Partisan struggles have also begun to overtake the Democrats. The probability that
is expected to control the Senate, the red is the probability that the Republicans are expected to control the House of Representatives from 538
, and the red is the probability that the Republicans are expected to control the House of Representatives from 538
According to the Associated Press, the reason why Trump wants to increase his participation in the Republican Party on the eve of the mid-term elections The help of people is mainly in the hope of paving the way for his return to the presidency with the help of a possible "Republican victory".
As of now, Trump has not officially announced that he will run for the 2024 presidential election, but he has repeatedly publicly hinted that he "is about to make a decision."
"In order to make our country successful and safe and great again, I may have to run one more (presidential campaign)," Trump said at a campaign rally last month.
And on the evening of November 3rd, Trump said in the last round of canvassing before the election in Sioux City, Iowa, "In order to make our country more successful, safer, and more brilliant, I am very, very, very likely. Do it again (running for president), very, very likely, very, very likely.”
Trump Screenshot of a live video of a rally in Iowa
According to Reuters, three Trump advisers said Trump Pu is considering announcing his candidacy this month. A source familiar with Trump's plans said Trump intends to announce his candidacy for president soon after the midterm elections on the 8th, and he has been scouting for possible staffers to join the cause.
"I think Trump can't wait to get into the 2024 election," a senior Trump adviser said. "I think he wants to officially announce and launch his He has an edge over his opponent, and he knows that." The senior adviser said a quick announcement of a run could help Trump's rivals as they are still making their own plans for the 2024 election Gained support in "early voting states" like Iowa and South Carolina .
However, it is also believed that Trump will not reveal his intentions anytime soon. "He wants the speculation (about him) to last for months," another source said. "He's going to enjoy all the talk over the last three months about when he's going to do it (announce his candidacy).
On the other hand, many Republicans are relieved that Trump has not announced whether he will run for president.
Politico reports that about half of Trump's advisers want him to declare his candidacy by Nov. 8 to clear the wayVarious campaign hurdles can also take credit for the Republican victory in the midterm elections.
However, top Republican leaders have warned that announcing his candidacy before the midterm elections will only make Trump a scapegoat for the Republican candidate's defeat.
The Associated Press analyzed that Trump's current strategy is to gather more support and popularity by visiting Republican-leaning "red states" such as Iowa and Florida, but not to scare away independent voters or suburbs. Women voters - because the GOP needs to win over these people in "swing states."
August 10, New York, the United States, Trump waved as he left Trump Tower. Source: Axios
The 2024 presidential election is "surrounded by powerful enemies"? Although
is quite popular within the Republican Party, the entire American society's evaluation of Trump is still "polarized".
A poll conducted by The Associated Press in partnership with the University of Chicago's Polling Center (NORC) in October found that 43 percent of respondents said they did not want to see Trump run in the 2024 election. In a poll jointly organized by Reuters and Ipsos at the end of October, Trump's approval rating was about 41%, one point ahead of Biden.
related analysis said that there are two factors that make Trump unpopular: First, Trump has been accused of inciting the "January 6 Capitol riot", which is regarded by many Americans as an attack on the democratic system. Trample; second, after Biden took office, Trump has repeatedly publicly declared that the Democratic Party has "election fraud" and that he is the "real winner" of the 2020 presidential election.
According to the US election practice, the end of the 2022 midterm elections means the arrival of the 2024 presidential election cycle, and all parties will also "show their cards" to announce their candidacy. But in order to become an official presidential candidate, you must first obtain the nomination of your party, that is, win the party's primary election.
A number of US media analyzed that there are many potential candidates in the Republican Party who are enough to "fight in the ring" with Trump, and some of them have already begun to build momentum like Trump, which also means that Trump's party primaries are not. "It's a matter of time." This month, a number of potential candidates for the 2024 election, including former Vice President Pence, former Secretary of State Pompeo, and former U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Haley, will attend Las Vegas, Nevada. The Republican Jewish Coalition meeting in Gass, but Trump was not on the list.
In addition, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Virginia Governor Glenn Yankin, Texas Senator Ted Cruz , Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton Seen as Trump's "potential competitors", they are also actively canvassing for Republican candidates in the midterm elections.
"I've talked to a lot of big names in the country, and I can honestly tell you that no one ever said they'd quit if Trump ran." Rep. Bobby Kaufman, R-Iowa Said that he doubted Trump could win the general election, "they are holding the cards very tightly." Secretary of State Pompeo
On the evening of November 3, local time, Trump will come to Sioux City, Iowa, to run against the state's Governor Kim Reynolds, Senator Chuck Grassley and many other well-known Republicans. assembly. Even as Republicans in the state welcome Trump's arrival, some are less optimistic about his presidential campaign plans.
"My take on Trump's visit is that he's going to have a great rally," said Bob Vander-Platz, a senior conservative leader in Iowa. "There's going to be a lot of People really like him and will see what he has done as president and will see the difference between his administration and a Biden administration."
"But there are still some people in the rally who say he shouldn't be in the 2024 election. , like 'Thank you, but let's go ahead and let a new guy win the 2024 election'. I've heard a lot of that from Trump supporters." Not to be reproduced.
