When the "nine-in-one election" in Taiwan is approaching, the good days of the DPP are coming to an end. As former DPP chairman Xu Xinliang said, the DPP election is pessimistic, and the outcome is basically determined.
If the DPP loses this midterm election, the handover of power in 2024 should be a high probability event. By then, the mainland's resistance to the peaceful reunification of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait will be greatly reduced.
So, is there any chance for the embattled DPP to come back? If the DPP really fails, what will happen to Tsai Ing-wen?
Tsai Ing-wen
has been in power for more than 6 years, and Tsai Ing-wen's political exam papers are getting worse and worse.
From lack of water and electricity, to lack of vaccines and lack of people's hearts, from playing with public opinion to election scandals, Tsai Ing-wen's ruling reputation has been overdrawn in recent years. Coupled with the panic and tension brought to Taiwan society by provoking the situation in the Taiwan Strait, Tsai Ing-wen was almost accused by thousands of people. Li Yuanzhe, former director of
's " Central Research Institute ", unceremoniously criticized Tsai Ing-wen for making a "blind check" for the election not long ago. It is for the next generation.” He also accused the DPP of "governing" and corrupting faster than in the past. Words can not be described as not fierce.
Li Yuanzhe taught in the United States in his early years and won the Nobel Prize in Chemistry . In 1994, he returned to Taiwan to engage in politics and served as the president of the "Academia Sinica" for a long time. In 2000, he supported Chen Shui-bian, and in 2016, he was Tsai Ing-wen's platform.
Even such a veteran is willing to publicly criticize Tsai Ing-wen at the embarrassment of slap in the face, which shows how unbearable Tsai's support rate in the party is.
In addition to Li Yuanzhe and Tsai Ing-wen who parted ways, in fact, since Tsai came to power in 2016, there have been many important DPP members who have quit the party. For example, former deputy leader of Taiwan region Lu Xiulian who quit the party in 2018, Su Huanzhi, mayor of Tainan County, and Chen Cangjiang, the only DPP county councilor in Kinmen County.
In 2019, "independence" boss Cai Mingxian , and You Yinglong, chairman of the pro-green organization "Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation", also quit the party one after another. On the eve of the election campaign at the end of 2022, Zheng Baoqing, a former Democratic Progressive Party candidate who ran for mayor of Taoyuan, and others also left one after another.
So, what is the reason for the DPP and Tsai Ing-wen to "betray each other"?
In this regard, the Kuomintang chairman Zhu Lilun summed it up very accurately. When it was interviewed by the media in October, it bluntly stated that Tsai Ing-wen used "slogans to rule Taiwan" for a long time, and also said that her "four willfulness" led to the biggest crisis in Taiwan.
1, the salary of young people does not rise, and the gap between the rich and the poor is allowed to continue to widen.
2, let the social order deteriorate and the violence continues.
3, let the network army attack the public, suppress the media, and create the so-called "green terror".
4. Allowing cross-strait relations to deteriorate and failing to have peaceful dialogue, Taiwan is at risk of war.
Tsai Ing-wen's "Four Ways" cited by Zhu Lilun are actually her "Four Crimes".
Regardless of whether Zhu Lilun cites Tsai Ing-wen's "Four Crimes" or not, there is a political struggle, at least the phenomena he said are true Yes. Taiwanese people's dissatisfaction with the DPP authorities is also real.
Criminals or war criminals? This is only the registered data. And the average salary of office workers is only 37,000 yuan ( NT , the same below), which is far lower than the "average monthly total salary of more than 50,000 NT dollars" released by the statistics department. In addition, according to the data of the competent financial department in Taiwan, in 2020, the comprehensiveThere are a total of 6.462 million households filing income tax returns, of which the average income of the lowest 5% is 34,000 yuan, and the average income of the highest 5% is 5.053 million yuan. The gap between the highest and the lowest has expanded to 148.6 times, far exceeding 130.2 times in 2019. The gap between the rich and the poor is huge.
In addition, according to the data of the competent financial department in Taiwan, in 2020, the comprehensiveThere are a total of 6.462 million households filing income tax returns, of which the average income of the lowest 5% is 34,000 yuan, and the average income of the highest 5% is 5.053 million yuan. The gap between the highest and the lowest has expanded to 148.6 times, far exceeding 130.2 times in 2019. The gap between the rich and the poor is huge.
The economy is sluggish, and the law and order is even worse. According to information from Taiwan's "Police Administration", disclosed that there will be 100 shootings in Taiwan in 2021, the highest in the past five years, with an average of one shooting in four days.
In addition to economic and people's livelihood, the DPP authorities colluded with external forces to provoke cross-strait confrontation, engaged in "green terror" on the island to suppress dissidents, and pushed Taiwan to the brink of war, not to mention crimes.
Internal and external difficulties and crises abound, Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP seem to be at the verge of life and death. Now Tsai Ing-wen, I am afraid it has become more and more difficult to achieve a peaceful old age. What awaits her is more likely to be the following two endings:
The first ending: follow in the footsteps of Chen Shuibian and accept the trial of the people of Taiwan.
In 2017, Cai Zhengyuan, the then executive director of the Kuomintang Policy Council, criticized Tsai Ing-wen, saying that "will not end up much better than Chen Shui-bian in the future". According to the current situation, her end may be worse than Chen Shui-bian.
Chen Shui-bian was imprisoned less than half a year after he left office, which has become a disgrace to Taiwan. But he should not be the last, maybe Tsai Ing-wen will create a new historical record.
The second ending: Detonate the war with a desperate gamble and become a war criminal of the Chinese nation.
In addition to Taiwanese prisons, Tsai Ing-wen may also be in mainland prisons. Once Tsai Ing-wen makes a desperate attempt to detonate a conflict in the Taiwan Strait in her last two years in power, then she is likely to become a war criminal of the Chinese nation. What awaits her will be the most severe judgment from the mainland.
66-year-old Tsai Ing-wen will not ignore her "behind the scenes". If nothing else, she should still see the day of the reunification of the motherland.
is just in what capacity she will witness history at that time, and in the end it will only depend on herself and what she will say and do next.
The "Anti-Central Protection Taiwan" card is no longer a lifesaver
According to the DPP's past behavioral logic, as long as the "Anti-Central Protection Taiwan" banner is held high and internal conflicts continue to be diverted through party contradictions and cross-strait contradictions, there will be a turnaround. Opportunity.
So, is there any chance for the DPP to make a comeback this time?
In fact, the DPP has been doing this for more than 30 years. Founded in 1986, the DPP, was originally just an "opposition" who was good at engaging in street sports. Manipulating public opinion and creating opposition was its way of survival.
At the beginning of its establishment, the DPP launched the banner of "resident self-determination", and declared in its party platform that "The future of Taiwan should be decided by all residents of Taiwan in a free, democratic, universal, fair and equal way." .
This has produced considerable attraction for islanders who yearn for freedom and prosperity after experiencing the brutal Japanese colonial rule and the dark cloud of white terrorism by the Kuomintang. As a result, the DPP rose rapidly.
In fact, Lee Teng-hui also took this path, but the Lee-style "Taiwan independence line" is more radical. A crisis in the Taiwan Strait, which caused a sensation in the world, almost pushed Taiwan into war, which made the United States very helpless, and also made Taiwanese people feel scared.
So in 2000, Chen Shui-bian of the Democratic Progressive Party defeated his opponent of the Kuomintang and successfully ascended the throne. After Chen came to power, he switched to the "progressive Taiwan independence" line, which won a certain living space for the DPP. However, with the changes in the world situation, this road has become more and more difficult. After the
9·11 incident broke out, China and the United States shook hands with each other due to counter-terrorism, and cooperation was greater than confrontation. In this context, 's "Taiwan independence" is obviously destroying the overall situation, and it is not flattering on three sides. In addition, Chen Zhitai's political achievements are generally good, and he eventually lost to Ma Ying-jeou from the Kuomintang, which is also a historical choice.
Ma Ying-jeou admits " The 1992 Consensus ", which has made great contributions to improving cross-strait relations and deserves more applause, but why did the KMT lose to the DPP?
is actually related to changes in Sino-US relations. Later, with the openness of China-US strategic competition, China-US relations have also undergone fundamental changes. After the US returned to the Asia-Pacific to draw allies to surround China, and continued to exaggerate the "China threat theory", Taiwanese society was wary of the mainland. It also came into being.
As a result, Tsai Ing-wen defeated the Kuomintang and came back to power under the banner of "anti-China Taiwan", which is a reasonable explanation. In recent years, Tsai Ing-wen has been able to persevere under various pressures. In fact, it is also related to this.
belongs to the era of the DPP, and it is time to end the era of
. The world has changed, and the game forces of the three parties across the strait have undergone fundamental changes. Before
, Tsai Ing-wen engaged in "progressive Taiwan independence". Therefore, there is a market because there are still some staunch "Taiwan independence" elements in Taiwan society. While some centrists support the DPP, it is because they have received toxic propaganda and education for a long time, lack an objective understanding of the strength and status of the mainland, and at the same time I have illusions about the United States. But after the United States abandoned Afghanistan , after China's attitude toward the United States became more and more tough, this illusion of the Taiwanese people is gradually shattering.
Especially after the Russian-Ukrainian war, Taiwanese people are becoming more and more The more I worry about my own destiny. If I continue to support Tsai Ing-wen against the mainland and worsen the situation, the result is likely to lead to a war in the Taiwan Strait. Will the United States fight for Taiwan then?
In several polls conducted this year, I believe the United States will There are fewer and fewer people "helping defend" Taiwan. Since no one believes that the United States will send troops for Taiwan, what can Taiwan use against the mainland? Those who profess to support the DPP are really willing to take their own In a poll released by the Taiwan Institute of International Strategy and the Institute of International Studies in March, 77.3% of people support peaceful cross-strait exchanges, and only 16.1% support the DPP
Peace in the Taiwan Strait has become the general trend, confrontation is a dead end, and this is the obvious ending. Tsai Ing-wen, who has lost public opinion, continues to play the "anti-China protection Taiwan" card, which will only accelerate its demise.
Therefore, no matter what tricks Tsai Ing-wen can play, the era of the DPP is over. The future living space for "Taiwan independence" politicians on the island will only get smaller and smaller until they are destroyed. The historical destiny.
is not only the DPP, but also the Kuomintang. Previously, Zhu Lilun went to the United States to show his hospitality, publicly clamoring for "resistance" system,” and it turned out to be a farce.
This is the power of public opinion. Whether it is Tsai Ing-wen, Zhu Lilun, or other political party leaders, whoever goes against the will of the people will surely be judged by the people.