had a phone call with Indian Prime Minister Modi on Monday, and hoped that India would help implement the "peace plan" proposed by Zelensky on G20. The "pilot peace proposals" put forward during the G20 included letting the Russian army withdraw from Ukraine, punishing war criminals, etc. At that time, Zelensky had just completed the video connection, and Russian missiles were fired at Ukraine... Zelens When Ji asked India for help, he really found the wrong "god". The problem is that with regard to the peace conditions of Ukraine, no one can solve it except directly asking Putin for "help".
And Russia also issued an ultimatum to Ukraine, Lavrov said that Ukraine either agreed to Russia's conditions, or the military had the final say. Whether or not all parties can talk or not has become an important focus of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Putin has not been idle recently, and his battles with Europe and the United States are happening all the time.
On Tuesday, Putin responded positively to the EU "price limit order". months, and special permission can also be granted to some countries within the scope of the ban. This means that it is obvious that for some countries in the EU that are friendly to Russia, such as Hungary, Russia may still continue to export oil, and the price may be discounted.
In fact, Russia’s counterattack against the EU is very pale. Although the EU is still buying Russian oil, compared with natural gas, it is easier to realize the diversification of oil imports. After all, OPEC has a lot of oil, nothing more than Saudi Arabia does not increase production, the price of oil bought by the EU will be more expensive.
Judging from Russia's counterattack, Russia is now very passive in the oil field. If Russia really has an absolute advantage in the oil field, it would be enough to directly cut off the oil pipeline and implement an oil embargo. This kind of oil embargo order with conditions and room for manipulation still reflects Russia's helplessness. Of course, the EU also has the term "immunity" when targeting Russia's energy sanctions, which shows that the confrontation between Russia and Europe in the energy field is not thorough. If it is complete, just stop the cooperation directly, but now the pipelines transiting Ukraine have not been shut down. Interestingly, Ukraine has not dared to blow up these pipelines.
While the confrontation continues, there are reports of peace talks. Is it possible for all parties to sit down and talk? Former German chancellor Merkel claimed on Tuesday that she had no idea how the conflict in Ukraine would end. Although Merkel said that wars often end in the form of negotiations, she obviously hasn't seen how Russia and Ukraine, or even multiple parties, should negotiate.
Judging from the current attitudes of all parties and the situation on the battlefield, Russia wants to talk but it is impossible to talk. Whether Ukraine talks or not depends on the face of the United States. The United States must make concessions if it wants to talk about Russia. They talk, I talk.
First, Russia is now negotiating according to its own wishes, that is, to make Ukraine recognize that Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporozhye belong to Russia. This kind of condition does not meet the condition that the United States wants to "negotiate only when Ukraine has an advantage at the negotiating table".
As far as the current battlefield situation is concerned, Russia has no room to make concessions, because Russia has already legislated the ownership of Kherson, Zaporozhye and other places. If Russia makes concessions, it will definitely be criticized. You must know that although Russia has recently released its attitude towards peace talks, Putin and Shoigu have frequently visited military factories, which may not be so simple behind it.
Second, as far as the United States is concerned, the United States is actually a country that can really retreat completely. The Russia-Uzbekistan conflict is now over, and the strategic goal of the United States has basically been achieved. The goal of consuming Russia has been achieved. Even if there is a ceasefire, the isolation and blockade of Russia by the West will not stop for several years.
The problem is face. If we talk about a ceasefire now, Ukraine will definitely make the biggest concession, but this is also in line with reality. After all, Ukraine has lost its territory and is unable to counterattack. If the fight continues, Ukraine will pay a heavy price,And it may not be able to regain lost ground. Thirdly, as far as the EU is concerned, the EU obviously does not want the conflict between Russia and Ukraine to continue. As long as the Russia-Ukraine conflict ends, international energy prices will definitely fall, which will not do any harm to the EU. Although the level of cooperation between Russia and Europe is unlikely to reach the Merkel period, it will not deteriorate further, and why economic recovery , the EU will still choose to release some goodwill and lift some sanctions against Russia.
After the Russia-Ukraine conflict, whether the EU can reap the benefits of setting a ceiling on energy prices is uncertain. If the EU insists on suppressing Russia's oil and natural gas, the "sequelae" of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will be will last a long time. But if the EU can't get any benefits, it will really play the role of "accompanying".
In summary, although all parties have reasons not to continue the fight, the conditions for the division of interests in the peace talks have not yet emerged. This kind of situation where only you have appeals, but others have different opinions from you, it is impossible for all parties to achieve dialogue. As far as the US is concerned, the US wants the EU to set a cap on energy prices?
You must know that the EU’s upper limit on energy prices is not only aimed at Russia, but also at energy imported through other channels, including the United States. Therefore, if the EU only targets Russia, the US will naturally be happy, but what is the use of the EU only targeting Russia ? Russia does not sell, international energy prices rise, does the EU still have to pay high energy prices?
For Russia, if Russia wants to win this war completely, it has no choice but to continue to fight. Judging from the current situation in Ukraine, Ukraine's counter-offensive strength has reached a critical point. Kadyrov stated that in order to maintain the current situation, Ukraine has to send some soldiers who have not undergone systematic training to the front line. This shows that the cost of Ukraine's resistance has reached its limit. As long as the Russian army keeps attacking, it will be difficult for the Ukrainian army to last for another year or even half a year.
Russia has now slowed down its offensive speed. Except for Bakhmut's fierce fighting, the exchange of fire in other places is sporadic. This kind of low-intensity consumption seems to be seeking peace talks, but it also seems to be a delaying strategy. If Russia can accept the current situation, why would the mobilized 300,000 reserve troops be sent to the battlefield?
Obviously, if Ukraine and the West cannot meet Russia's conditions (in fact, it is impossible), Russia can only choose to fight, because Russia cannot accept a defeat.
Can Ukraine accept defeat? This is precisely not for Ukraine to decide.
As long as the United States says not to fight, Ukraine can only choose to negotiate. Without the support of the United States, Ukraine cannot move forward. So, will the United States choose a ceasefire?
For now, Russia has not hurt the United States at all, so it is impossible for the United States to stop there. Therefore, what is before Russia is not how to win Ukraine, but how to hurt the United States!
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